While the West Fidgets, the Biggest Land Grab in 50 Years Marches On : Yugoslavia: Ethnic turmoil and nationalist strivings don’t explain the bloodshed. Hit Serbia where it would hurt the most--in the wallet.

The confusing and often violent events heralding the disintegration of Yugoslavia are likely to have ominous repercussions for the future of the region and its peoples. What is happening there can no longer be explained away by “ethnic turmoil” and/or “nationalist strivings.” Rather, it is armed territorial expansionism by a stronger state at the expense of a weaker neighbor. This is the first time since the end of World War II that such a determined and single-minded land grab has taken place in Europe; it conjures up the odious ghosts of an era most Europeans thought buried.

That recent events in Croatia, one-third of whose territory is now under Serbian control, reflect a well-planned and carried-out annexation is beyond reasonable doubt. Serbian militias in Croatia--armed, trained and financed by Serbia--are little more than a tool, albeit an important one, in Belgrade’s ambitions. What the Western media reflexively refer to as the “Yugoslav” army in Croatia is, in fact, an increasingly Serbian one commanded by Serbian generals and staffed by Serbian conscripts and reservists. The legitimate concerns of the Serbian minorities, most of whom voted for Croatian independence, are used more and more as a smoke screen for Belgrade’s audacious aggression.

Even if the Serbian advance were to stop tomorrow, Croatia, divided in four separate parts, would hardly be a feasible state and could not reconcile itself to such a fate. As a result, years, if not decades, of conflict would be guaranteed.

But Serbian ambitions are far from satisfied. Next on the agenda, perhaps after a “decent interval,” will almost certainly be Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Serbs constitute about 40% of the population. Some Belgrade publications have already printed maps indicating which areas of Yugoslavia are likely to become part of Greater Serbia.

These developments may be a rude shock for Western governments, which may have inadvertently encouraged this egregious behavior with their empty incantations in support of unitary Yugoslavia. But to those who have watched the steady rise of belligerent Great Serbia chauvinism as the new ideology of the communist leadership, they are not surprising. More than a year ago, Serbia’s communist boss, Slobodan Milosevic, stated that those who wish to leave Serbian-dominated Yugoslavia will do so without large parts of their territory.

It would thus seem that Serbia, militarily in control and insultingly oblivious of international opinion, is capable of achieving its objectives undisturbed. This impression, at least in the long term, is deceiving. Serbia may be painting itself into a historical corner. Already, world opinion has swung decidedly against it, even as Western leaders continue to fret and fidget about what to do. More important, in Yugoslavia and among its neighbors, Serbia is rapidly developing the reputation of an authoritarian rogue state.

Having earned the enmity of Croats and Slovenians, Belgrade is rapidly alienating Yugoslavia’s burgeoning Muslim populations. To the south, the Macedonians, who are dismissed as southern Serbs by Serbian nationalists, are likely to strike out on their own, or perhaps even seek protection from the Bulgarians, to whom they are related by history, culture and language. Within Serbia, itself an ethnic glass house, the 2 million Albanians of Kosovo will not indefinitely tolerate the brutal political repression imposed on them by a tiny Serbian minority. Even the quiescent Hungarians of the northern province of Vojvodina may soon start questioning their connection to what is shaping up as the last bastion of chauvinist communism in Europe.

The greatest loser in the short term, however, are likely to be the hopes of the Serbian people for democracy and economic betterment. Behind the fog of chauvinist propaganda, the Serbian communist leadership has managed to consolidate its rule, postpone desperately needed economic reforms and further restrict political expression. The Belgrade media, for instance, are under tighter government control than under Josip Tito. The true nature of the regime was revealed last March, when a huge demonstration protesting government manipulation of television programming was fired upon by security troops.

While all this is going on, Serbia, already an economic basket case, continues to slide perilously toward economic disaster. Belgrade’s increasing international isolation and the drying up of credits guarantee the country will be facing economic chaos before long.

Ironically, it may be Belgrade’s economic malaise that offers a ray of hope, however faint, for preventing larger-scale bloodshed. Serbia, like the rest of Yugoslavia and more than Croatia and Slovenia, depends on Western European economic assistance and trade for survival. Last year, Germany alone contributed half-a-billion dollars.

A European Community decision to use its economic clout decisively, including such measures as an economic embargo and freezing Yugoslav assets, may be the only thing that could sober up the hot heads in Belgrade and force them to reconsider their expansionistic policies. A European Community recognition of Croatia and Slovenia as independent states and a pledge not to recognize de jure the dismemberment of Croatia may also give the Serbian leaders pause. Such steps must be accompanied by international guarantees of wide-ranging autonomy for the Serbian minority to assuage their fears of living in a Croatian state.

Whether this approach would work is far from certain, but it must be tried. For the West to continue to do nothing, except issue meek statements of concern, ultimately has the effect of abandoning a part of Europe to the political law of the jungle, where might makes right.