Captors and Their Friends Are Staging a Good Show : Hostages: Perhaps a deal can be made, but for now Iran is an impresario determined to make political points.

The rapidly evolving drama of the release of a British hostage and an American suggested to many that a breakthrough was imminent in the Middle East. In fact, the weekend’s events were choreographed by Iran and those holding Western hostages in Lebanon to create an illusion that the release of two hostages was the result of secret negotiations, which have gone so well as to permit the release of all remaining hostages, if only Israel cooperates.

The rapid succession of messages and images in this highly visual story precludes reflection and permits the illusion to be maintained. The truth is, there is no done deal.

The terms of a swap involving nine Westerners, seven Israeli military men missing in action, and close to 400 people held by Israel or its proxy militia in Lebanon have been on the table for some time, at least four years, to my recollection. There have been communications between Israel and the Shiite fundamentalist militants of Hezbollah, or Party of God. There have been continuing discussions at the diplomatic level between the United States and the United Kingdom and Syria and Iran. But the release of two hostages now is, most probably, the product of a coincidence of three diverse agendas.

For some time now, the more pragmatic leaders in Tehran have been convinced that the future of Iran’s Islamic Revolution can be best served by better relations with the West. Resolving the hostage issues is a prerequisite. Iran is the impresario of the current show, but to obtain the Western hostages’ freedom, it must get something for the captors.

Islamic Jihad and the other groups that hold the hostages are expressions of Hezbollah, a pro-Iranian Shiite fundamentalist movement in Lebanon. Hezbollah listens to Iran, but it has its own agenda as well. It has money, it has guns and it has hostages; it does not have widespread support and is now trying to convert hostage currency into political capital.

To increase the value of that currency, the captors have brilliantly stage-managed an international drama. Eight days ago we had only the continuing saga of the hostages--full of pathos, but certainly not an international crisis. Now, suddenly, Israeli officials are on television explaining their country’s position, the President and other Western leaders are expressing hope for a resolution, U.N. officials are scurrying about, the usual experts are providing running commentary. It certainly looks like a crisis.

We must also credit the captors with a coup in mobilizing the United Nations as its megaphone. By releasing a hostage to be its envoy, Islamic Jihad, an organization known only through its kidnappings, has engaged the secretary general as its interlocutor, thereby guaranteeing worldwide readership of its letter. The Islamic fundamentalists holding the hostages have gotten their story out, and while their lengthy diatribe may strike Westerners as strange, it will resonate among those in the Middle East whom it claims to represent. And they will be impressed by the attention given to it.

If Sheik Obeid and others are released it will bring further credit to Islamic Jihad. It matters little that Obeid is a small fish whose importance has grown in captivity just because he is a captive; it matters not at all that many of those in Israeli-controlled prisons are not even members of Hezbollah, but rather of rival organizations. Islamic Jihad will have gotten things done where others have failed.

Finally, what do the Syrians want? They probably don’t care at all about Sheik Obeid, detained Shiites or even Hezbollah, which Syrian soldiers have engaged in combat in Lebanon. What the hostage crisis offers Syria is an opportunity to skewer Israel. If the hostages are released, Syria will be given credit for its efforts on their behalf. If the hostages are not released, Israel will be blamed.

If the culpability for the continued captivity of American and other Western hostages can be transferred from suddenly cooperative captors to stubborn Israelis who refuse to go along with terms everyone else appears to support, it will increase the friction between the United States and Israel. This explains the effort of the captors and other anonymous sources in the Middle East to suggest that mysterious negotiations led to the release of Edward Tracy and John McCarthy, and might yet produce a release of all captives. This is the kind of maneuver for which Syrian President Hafez Assad is justifiably famous.

The captors have invested two of their hostages in a spectacle that seems to have paid off politically, at least for the moment. Deft diplomacy may yet weave their illusion of momentum into the reality of genuine negotiations, but getting the last hostages out will still require persuading the principals in Lebanon, Tehran and Damascus, as well as the Israelis, that ending the game will benefit everyone.