Computer Firms Rush to Produce Pen-Based Units
Like a pack of hungry wolves that has caught the scent of food, more than 700 computer professionals descended on a hotel here last month to salivate over the imminent arrival of what many regard as the computer product of the 1990s: lightweight, portable computers that use a pen instead of a keyboard.
It’s not hard to see what the excitement is about. A clipboard-like computer that allows people to write directly on the screen has an almost limitless number of uses, and it could bring new life to an industry that’s in an unprecedented slump.
While pen computing looked promising but distant a year ago, it now looks like a can’t-miss technology that’s tantalizingly close to takeoff. Announcements of new hardware products are coming fast and furious, and two much-anticipated software systems for controlling the basic functions of pen-based machines should be ready by year-end.
“I have no idea how fast it will develop, but the number (that eventually will be sold) is so high that it doesn’t even matter,” says Roger B. McNamee, manager of the T. Rowe Price technology stock fund. “I can only think of about 100 ways I would use one of these things.”
As is often the case with a new technology, however, the initial versions may not do much for the average consumer. To begin with, they’ll be two to three times more expensive than a desktop personal computer with comparable power.
And, the handwriting recognition capabilities are still not nearly as good as Joe Public might expect. Most pen computers will be far more suitable for jotting down a few numbers or filling out forms rather than for writing letters or other long documents.
“There is an over-hype issue,” said Alan B. Lefkof, former president of Grid Systems, a subsidiary of Tandy Corp. that was the first to get a pen machine on the market. “If people expect a $500 machine that can do everything, they may decide to wait before they buy anything.”
For a number of specialized uses, however, the pen technology that’s available now is probably good enough. The most important initial market is among people who work in the field and have to fill out forms--a group that includes truck drivers, claims adjusters, building inspectors and emergency medical service personnel.
With a pen computer, an auto insurance adjuster can access a form that corresponds to the type of car involved and make notes onto that electronic form with a pen. The information can be stored and automatically loaded into the main office computer later time or transmitted via a built-in cellular telephone modem.
Robert G. Fast, part of a task force at North American Van Lines that is looking at ways to reduce paperwork, said pen computers would be a “very important” part of that effort. “The people who will use it are not used to computers,” he added, “and we think it will be very acceptable to them.”
While analysts agree that these so-called vertical markets for specialized applications will be large and lucrative, the great hope of many in the industry is that pen computers will help tap the great unwashed computer masses--the majority of workers who still don’t use a computer on the job and the majority of households that don’t have one at home.
People who are put off by the irritating complexity of most PCs--or who simply don’t know how to type--will presumably be much more amenable to using something that looks, feels and acts like a notebook than a computer.
“Ordinary people can see what this is for, and that’s a tremendous marketing force,” says Richard Shaffer, whose New York consulting firm, Technologic Partners, sponsored Tuesday’s jam-packed conference. Still, he expects that high prices and the technical limitations of the first machines will keep the market confined to specialized applications for a couple of more years.
For computer vendors, the pen phenomenon is a potential revolution on the order of the personal computer itself. In the 1980s, established computer firms denied the importance of the PC, leaving it to upstarts such as Apple. Some never recovered from that error.
Determined to prevent a repeat of that unhappy experience, all of the major computer companies have pen projects in the works. Grid and NCR were first out of the blocks. Analysts expect to see pen products from IBM, Apple, Compaq and dozens of others within a year.
A few more pieces still have to fall in place before things really take off, however. One key issue is software operating systems, which control the basic functions of computers. Microsoft, which dominates the market for PC operating systems with DOS and Windows, expects to have a pen version of Windows ready by the end of the year.
But, Microsoft is getting a run for its money from Go Corp., a Silicon Valley start-up that has developed a new operating system specifically for pen machines. Microsoft can offer compatibility with existing PCs, but Go Corp. maintains that an entirely new approach is necessary to get the best from this type of computing.
In addition, a version of the DOS operating system for pen computers has been created by Communications Intelligence Corp. of Redwood City. And in the long run, a variety of pen machines for specialized applications--a computerized checkbook, for example--will probably have their own specialized operating system.
“The real excitement will be where the consumer electronics takes hold,” Shaffer says. “In two to five years, there will be lots of little dedicated machines that have pen entry, and then--presto!--one of them will be a Walkman and will sell in the millions.”
Pen Computer Growth Analysts expect computers that use pens instead of keyboards, which are now entering the market, to be the next big growth product in the industry Sales projections by year In thousands of units Source: International Data Corp.
