U.S. Welcomes the Brake on Soviet Slide Into Chaos : Reaction: Washington breathes a sigh of relief. It sees wide benefits from the new central control.

A heartened Bush Administration on Thursday welcomed the historic agreement in Moscow to remake the Soviet Union as a sign of an important new bonding between center and republics that senior officials said may halt the disruptive slide toward disunion.

The favorable response reflected a widespread sense of relief in the Administration that, after 16 days in which events in the world’s largest nation threatened to spin ever more out of control, the Soviets seemed to have fashioned a brake.

The State Department described the accord as “a hopeful sign” of an emerging “constructive and cooperative” relationship between Moscow and the republics. The language departed from a previous pattern of official caution, in which the Soviet government arrangements had been characterized merely as an internal matter.

And in private remarks, U.S. officials were even more candid as they described Thursday’s agreements as a guarantor of at least some central control and an adhesive that could help bind the unraveling union.

“What you’re hearing is a sigh of relief that maybe they’re going to be able to sort this out as one single entity,” said one high-ranking source.

Knowledgeable officials conceded that the United States, with its avowed faith in self-determination, has found itself in an awkward position. Although apprehensive about dissolution of the union, the Administration still believes that it should not stand in the way of efforts by other Soviet republics to join the Baltic states in outright independence, the officials said.

Indeed, the White House adhered rigidly Thursday to what one official described as that “hands-off” policy. “The final outcome is for them to decide,” Deputy Press Secretary Gary Foster repeated at a noon briefing.

But beneath that public stance, Administration sources made clear, is a view that the republics themselves, and the world as a whole, would be better served if the Soviet effort to maintain some sort of federation is successful. “There is clearly a predilection on the part of the Administration to see some kind of union,” one Administration source said.

In particular, U.S. officials contend that such central coordination should simplify efforts to maintain control over nuclear weapons, while helping to distribute economic burdens in a way that will lessen hardship.

At a minimum, they suggested, even a loose association among largely autonomous republics should serve as a cushion to minimize conflict between them. One official noted that the example of the European Community suggests that an economic union “may prevent a lot of political problems that might otherwise emerge as a result of independence.”

Some senior advisers to President Bush have expressed concern that the divisive effects of an unraveling Soviet Union could seep into other European countries with ethnic and nationalistic divisions. In the wake of Thursday’s action by the Soviet Congress of People’s Deputies, it is uncertain whether such spillover remains a threat, Administration sources said. One official expressed confidence that what he called a new “breathing spell” would at least slow the rush to change.

“The danger was always that this thing would continue to fall apart and that other countries might begin to follow,” another Administration official said. “For today, at least, that looks a lot less likely.”

Advisers to President Bush had predicted for more than a week that the fragmentation of the Soviet Union would not result in a total “atomization.” They predicted that at least a few republics would establish “some kind of ties” along the lines approved Thursday in Moscow.

But government sources described as more promising than expected the agreement to establish a mechanism for coordination. With at least 10 republics apparently willing to participate, one official said, “It kind of puts a little bit of a brake on the whole process.”

As a step toward maintaining central control over nuclear weapons, the agreement in Moscow is expected to ease the task of U.S. officials who have indicated that they intend to raise the subject of arms with Soviet officials at the earliest possible moment.

Administration sources have said that the United States may seek deep cuts in the Soviet nuclear stockpiles as a condition of future Western economic aid.

A further prod toward arms control came Thursday as the National Academy of Sciences issued a report calling for Washington and Moscow to reduce their long-range arsenals by half, even after implementing cuts required under the pending Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.

The report by the non-governmental agency, which serves as an official adviser to the United States on matters of science and technology, was drafted before the latest turmoil erupted in the Soviet Union with the failed hard-line coup just over two weeks ago.

But in an addendum to the document, the scientists who offered the recommendation said that the unfolding changes would cause them only to amplify their conclusions.

“It is very unlikely that a future Soviet Union or a future Russia will revert to an externally aggressive and expansionist posture, nor could it recapture its dominance over Eastern Europe,” said Wolfgang Panofsky, a former Stanford University professor who headed the scientific team.