The Last Days of the Soviet Lifeline : Now Cuba faces a midlife crisis

When Fidel Castro’s bid to host the 1991 Pan American Games was accepted years ago, Cuba-watchers saw it as a diplomatic victory for him--a big step toward shaking Cuba’s image as the pariah of the Western Hemisphere. And when the games were held last month they were, indeed, a success. But in the interim so many things had changed in the world that the Pan Am Games may be remembered not as Castro’s triumph but as his last hurrah.

For even as Castro was showing off his island regime to athletes and journalists from all over the Americas, the Soviet system that he championed in this hemisphere came unraveled once and for all. And that means the end of the lifeline that kept Cuba afloat in the face of a long economic embargo by the United States, as well as less stringent embargoes and diplomatic isolation by other Latin American nations.

Of course, Castro claims he foresaw this possibility and prepared a “zero option” plan for Cuba. But in this case “zero” is almost literally true--the Soviet Union provides Cuba with most of its oil and three-fourths of all other goods. There was a dramatic drop in Soviet aid to Cuba last year, from $5 billion in 1989 to $3.5 billion. With the accelerated decline this year, food, transportation and other necessities are even scarcer than normal in Cuba. The resulting discontent, according to a report filed last week by The Times’ Richard Boudreaux, stretches the length of the island.

But just because Cubans are unhappy don’t look for Castro’s regime to collapse as rapidly as did other Soviet allies, and the Soviet Union itself. Castro’s appeal to his people has always been based at least as much on Cuban nationalism as on the benefits of socialism, whatever they might be. In consequence, Boudreaux found, Cuba still retained just enough of that pride, and those benefits, to keep a significant number of Cubans in Fidel’s corner--especially when it comes to a standoff with Cuba’s biggest bogyman, Uncle Sam and the specter of Yanqui imperialism.

That’s why it would be wise of President Bush and other U.S. policy-makers to not let their hearts overpower their heads when pondering how to handle relations with Cuba. Castro has been a noisy irritant for so long that they may be tempted to gloat and set Draconian terms for Cuba to meet if it now needs friendlier relations with Washington. Some especially ardent anti-Castro activists may even press for another Bay of Pigs-style attack or other vengeful schemes, figuring it’s pay-back time for 30 years of frustration.

A far better strategy would be to maintain a steady course and let our many friends in Latin America carry the message to Castro that the party’s over in Moscow--and that if he now wants help from his neighbors he will have to play by the same rules that almost everyone else in the Western Hemisphere accepts.

They began giving him that message last July at a 21-nation Ibero-American summit in Guadalajara, Mexico. Castro didn’t want to hear it then. One suspects he’s listening more carefully now.