Total Pullout Would Be Off Base : Economy of Philippines needs that nation’s Senate to OK U.S. base deal

For Filipinos, the U.S. military presence in the Philippines has long been an issue of national sovereignty. Now with the last of the U.S. bases up for renewal, some Philippine senators want to evict American forces entirely. An abrupt U.S. pullout would yank $1 billion out of the national economy and put thousands out of work. That would work against President Corazon Aquino’s quest for an “orderly withdrawal” of U.S. forces from her country.

The Foreign Relations Committee of the Philippine Senate voted 12 to 11 to reject the U.S.-Philippine base treaty agreement reached in July after a year of contentious negotiations. Under the deal, the United States would continue to operate out of Subic Bay Naval Base for 10 years and compensate the Philippines $203 million annually. The United States did not renew the lease on volcano-ravaged Clark Air Force Base because of the possibility of new eruptions by Mt. Pinatubo and the horrendous outlay--estimated at $500 million--that would be required to restore the base. Four other facilities are being returned to Manila.

Unless two-thirds of the 23-member Senate approves the treaty within the week, the lease on Subic expires Monday. President Bush has said the offer will not be sweetened. Defense Secretary Dick Cheney said the U.S. military is ready to “pack up and move” if the offer is spurned.

The United States has long maintained it will not seek to retain bases where they are not wanted. Few would disagree that the end of the Cold War has made a large U.S. military presence in the Philippines less strategically necessary. Mt. Pinatubo’s eruptions only expedited the military downsizing there.

But a total pullout would wreak havoc on an economy already reeling from the destruction of Mt. Pinatubo and the closing of Clark. Unemployment stands at 17%, and the closing of Subic would put 14,000 more Filipinos out of work. That would have a ripple effect on other businesses and jobs. Evicting the U.S. military would be a hollow political victory for Philippine sovereignty.