COLUMN RIGHT/ CONDOLEEZZA RICE : You Couldn’t Find Better Credentials : Robert Gates’ skill and straightforwardness make him the right person for the CIA.

I remember sitting in Robert Gates’ White House office one night last September, thinking that there was no reason to hurry on what Gates, deputy director of the National Security Council, had just asked for--a small group to start thinking about what the United States would be facing in the Soviet Union. At that time, the so-called 500-Day economic plan seemed to enjoy the support of liberals and moderates alike, and conservatives had been routed at the July Communist Party plenum. Reform was moving forward.

Just two months later, in November, Mikhail Gorbachev appointed most of the men responsible for last month’s attempted coup; in December, Eduard Shevardnadze resigned as foreign minister, warning of impending dictatorship; and in January, Soviet Black Beret troops cracked down in Lithuania and Latvia, foreshadowing the August coup.

Today, with the forces of reaction in full retreat, those tragic events seem like a lifetime ago. But if we have learned anything over the last year, it is to expect a roller-coaster ride as the Soviet Union lurches toward a more democratic future.

That is precisely what Bob Gates has been saying all along. A lot was made of his pessimistic predictions about the prospects for reform in the Soviet Union. Most often, his views were portrayed as evidence of hidden policy splits in the Administration.

In fact, there was never any question that Gates supported what the Administration was doing--working with a reformist leadership in Moscow to pile up gain after gain for Western foreign policy: the liberation of Eastern Europe; German unification; the European conventional forces treaty; the international coalition against Saddam Hussein; and finally, the START treaty. Gates was just saying that chances for successful reform were bleak and that caution was warranted.

As a historian, Gates was well-acquainted with the cycles of reform and repression endemic to Russia. As a student of the modern Soviet Union, he understood that it was, in fact, a fictitious nation held together by fear. In the final analysis, he figured that Gorbachev’s efforts to democratize this fragile and bankrupt system would one day bring it crashing down. He was right. Never given to euphoria when things went well or to doom when they went badly, Gates was concerned that American policy be robust enough to weather the ups and downs of revolutionary times.

There are once again reasons to be hopeful about a democratic future for whatever successor state the remaining republics and the Kremlin form. Yet, the old adage, “Pray for clear skies but prepare for rain,” could not be truer than it is today. The events of August were, like the storming of the Winter Palace in 1917 or the Bastille in 1789, the first chapter, not the last, in an unfolding revolution. The Soviet people face crushing economic problems and exploding ethnic tensions, while their leaders are experimenting with a new political order. The changes in the Soviet Union, and those in Europe, mean that an earthquake is under way in the heart of America’s security system.

Nothing this fundamental has happened since the end of World War II. Everything, from our commitments abroad to our economic well-being at home, depends on how we see and react to the events of the next few years. The CIA needs outstanding leadership if it is to give American policy-makers the information on which to build a successful new policy.

With so much in flux, the CIA director will have his hands full making sure that the agency is organized to handle the complications of the post-Cold War world. The director is also the President’s chief intelligence adviser. Since absolutely clear-cut evidence is rare, often the most important thing he can do is give the President a well-informed and honest judgment.

Gates is the best man for the job in all its dimensions and ought to be confirmed without delay. As deputy director of intelligence he was an innovator, establishing panels of outside experts to oversee the broad direction of the CIA’s Soviet work. He made a practice then, and later at the White House, of reaching down into the ranks to talk directly with analysts who were close to the raw evidence. He cares about ideas.

Most important, Gates has shown integrity and grit. He has said candidly and consistently what he thought about the Soviet Union’s future, while never breaking ranks with the President. In these crucial times, we could not ask for better CIA director. We should certainly not settle for less.