THE PULSE OF EUROPE : Thoughts on the Current Status

STEVE SZABO, is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, is a specialist on Germany who makes frequent use of public opinion data:

“You can look at this as a glass half full or half empty. I tend to take a more optimistic view. . . . The Eastern European data seems to me to offer hope for the future, despite the massive challenges. There’s a lot of support for multi-party democracy, a free-market economy, civil liberties. . . . There’s an exhaustion of authoritarian alternatives. I think the people realize that the trains don’t necessarily run on time under an authoritarian system.”

ARNOLD HORELICK, a former Soviet specialist at the CIA, is now at the RAND Corp.:

“The data should be sobering for those people in the West who think the only thing required is for a bunch of Russian political leaders and economists to come up with the right Western-approved formula for improving the Soviet economy. It indicates the degree of political and cultural resistance, and political leaders have to take into account popular attitudes; you can’t ram this down people’s throat. But given their history, given the last 70-plus years . . . the degree to which large percentages seem willing to accept some of the values of free markets and democratic institutions is kind of remarkable and encouraging.”

CHARLES GATI, is a leading authority on Europe, is a professor at Union College in Schenectady, N.Y., and at Columbia University:

“In the Soviet Union, the populace is uncertain about reform of the economy. Gorbachev’s policies of the last two to three years--going back and forth, flirting with reform, then backtracking--were not simply the machinations of a politician. In point of fact, (they) reflected popular attitudes. . . . There is both a desire to get their economy on another beat (and) a tremendous fear of losing some of the previous benefits. . . . When a toy store where 10 people work--or claim to be working--goes to a mom-and-pop operation, there are eight people who are not likely to celebrate market reform.”

SARAH TERRY is a professor at Tufts University in Massachusetts, specializing in Eastern Europe:

“There is a really profound disorientation in Eastern European society. I came across another survey . . . about how Polish households viewed their economic status and their economic future. It shows what I would call the panic factor going through the roof. People were asked how their family looked at its economic future. Approximately 15% said with confidence, 54% said with apprehension and 31% said with terror--that was the literal translation of the word used in the poll: terror. The (Times Mirror) poll shows xenophobia, fear of foreign capital, fear of foreign goods, but it has to be read in the context of that (economic) anxiety.”

ANGELA STENT, a professor at Georgetown University, specializes in the eastern part of Germany and in Eastern Europe.

“An encouraging message (is) young people in Eastern Europe are less concerned with the need for stability and authority. . . . Young people are willing to endure the uncertainty that comes with the move toward democracy. . . . They may not be totally accepting of other groups, (but) they’re less committed to an a priori judgment.”

JAMES COONEY, is a professor at Harvard University, specializes in Germany:

“The picture I see emerging of Germany is that it’s not just another Western European country. I think the poll results isolate Germany. They show that it is at least one step further evolved than other European countries. The picture I see is of an affluent country, an individualistic country where people are focused on their own happiness, a country looking for minimal state control but also a (government) social (support) network, a country that wants law and order, that is very oriented toward the environment and to peace. . . . You can see how different the east Germans are from Eastern Europeans. They are not in a camp with the Poles, the Hungarians and the Czechs. They really are aware of what the values are in west Germany, and that’s what they’re striving for.”

EZRA SULEIMAN is a professor at Princeton University specializing in France:

“People are afraid of what’s going to happen to them. . . . Take the question of immigration. . . . Europe ’92 says there will be free movement of goods, labor and capital. . . . (But) this (immigration) already is the major social and economic problem in West European countries. . . . There is severe unemployment already. . . . Each country is now afraid of hordes and hordes of people coming in from East European countries.”

MICHEL TATU is an editorial writer for the French publication Le Monde who specializes in international affairs:

“The factor of nationalism, the possibility of ethnic strife, is a fact of life in Eastern Europe. In the West, fears of immigration are a national problem. The East is different. People are not angry against immigrants, they are angry against their neighbors. Nothing has changed. These resentments are the same as they were before communism. Communism camouflaged them. Now there is no more communism and no more camouflage. We are back to where we were at the beginning of the century.”