Middle East : It’s Do-or-Die Time for PLO on Joining Peace Conference

Bitterly divided and facing one of its most important decisions ever, the ruling congress of the Palestine Liberation Organization will convene here Monday to decide whether to join in a hoped-for conference on peace in the Middle East. The meeting comes at a crucial time since the Palestinians are the only key players in the Arab-Israeli conflict who have not indicated a strong inclination to take part in a peace conference--and the players who have both the most to gain and the most to lose from the outcome. Here is a look at the Palestinian meeting and its likely results:

THE ORGANIZATION: The 450-member Palestine National Council is the PLO’s governing body and, since the Palestinians declared statehood, its parliament-in-exile. The largest number of seats are held by PLO chief Yasser Arafat’s Fatah faction. About another 100 are held by other PLO member organizations and perhaps another 200 by independents. The PNC is supposed to convene yearly, but it has not held a meeting since voting in November, 1988, to recognize Israel’s right to exist and to renounce terrorism.

THE PEACE TALKS: Foremost is the question of whether to take part in a peace conference. Moderate PLO leaders are trying to hold back a rising radical tide within the organization that is opposed to further concessions to Israel and the United States and sees joining the conference as a sellout--at least without substantial concessions from Israel.

On the other hand, all PLO leaders realize that there is a good chance the process could go on without them if they decide to hold out.

In last-minute meetings with Secretary of State James A. Baker III, Palestinians have sought to press their demands for a halt to Israeli settlement construction in the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip before negotiations start. They also want firm assurances that the talks will lead to Israeli withdrawal from the occupied lands and the possibility of a Palestinian state and want participation of Palestinians from East Jerusalem in the talks.

Baker’s responses so far, moderate Palestinian leaders say, have been inadequate: calling for a joint delegation of Jordanians and Palestinians that includes only Palestinians from the occupied lands and discussing, at least initially, Palestinian autonomy, not statehood. The United States thinks Israeli settlements ought to be discussed at the peace conference, not before.

THE PLAYERS: Reports of Arafat’s political demise have been greatly exaggerated. Despite the beating he took for supporting Iraqi President Saddam Hussein during the Gulf War, Arafat is not likely to be ousted, if only because there is no obvious replacement.

Even Arafat’s detractors admit that he has become an irrevocable symbol of the Palestinian cause, and moderates within the organization who support Arafat’s path toward peacemaking with Israel still hold substantial sway.

Important PLO operatives such as executive committee member Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), Foreign Minister Farouk Khadoumi and leading diplomat Hakim Balawi still strongly support Arafat’s moves toward peace, and so do key Arafat advisers such as Hani Hassan, Nabil Shaath and Bassam Abu Sharif.

The PLO’s longtime naysayers, though, want Arafat to quit making concessions without getting anything in return. Groups such as George Habash’s Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and Nayef Hawatmeh’s Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, both based in Damascus, Syria, hope to bring the PLO back to a harder line. And along with some of the moderates, they hope to rein in Arafat, making him more accountable to the membership.

THE PROSPECTS: Arafat had hoped to bring everyone on board with this meeting. It’s looking doubtful that those hopes will bear fruit.

For instance, the dissident factions based in Damascus under the umbrella of the Palestine National Salvation Front, led by former PNC Chairman Khaled Fahoum, probably won’t attend. They include Ahmed Jibril’s Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command, which announced it would attend only if Arafat agreed to major changes in the PLO’s political program.

The radical Muslim groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad probably won’t attend either. But talks with both groups will be continuing over the weekend.