THE TIMES POLL : 8 of 10 Say U.S. Is Still in Recession : Economy: The results are the same as a survey in June, and they suggest that Americans are dubious about the Administration’s contention that a recovery is under way.

Economists may say the recovery is here, but more than eight out of 10 Americans don’t believe it, a new Los Angeles Times Poll shows.

As the all-important Christmas shopping season nears, respondents still worry about their job prospects, and equal numbers believe that the economy could worsen or improve. Nearly one in three Americans still says the recession is serious, despite assurances to the contrary by the Bush Administration.

The poll, in which 82% of respondents believe that the country was still in recession, showed little change in consumer attitudes since a Times Poll in late June.

“Throughout this period of supposed recovery, the public hasn’t seen it,” said John Brennan, director of The Times Poll. “Their opinion about the economy has been gloomy throughout ‘91--and, if anything, it’s slightly down since the spring.”

Eight in 10 Americans described the economy as shaky, while only two in 10 described it as robust.

Because consumer spending fuels about two-thirds of the nation’s economic activity, confidence levels are a crucial indicator of the economy’s health.

The poll’s results run counter to expectations raised by Michael J. Boskin, chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, who said Monday that the recession bottomed out in spring and that the recovery was progressing, albeit slowly.

Several economic indicators have supported that, including housing starts, personal income and consumer spending. On Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported that orders for durable goods fell 3.8% in August, after a big jump in July that was the best monthly increase in 33 years.

But The Times Poll findings countering contentions of recovery are in keeping with results of a Conference Board survey released this week. It showed consumer confidence dropping in September for the third straight month.

“Consumers mercifully are not economists, so they simply tell you what they feel and what they’re experiencing,” said Fabian Linden, executive director of the Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center. “Until we have a confident consumer, we can’t expect any vigorous growth.”

The most recent Times Poll, conducted Sept. 21 to 24, surveyed 1,597 adults throughout the nation. It has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. For subgroups the margin of sampling error may be somewhat higher.

More than half the respondents described the recession as mild or moderate. “It appears that at least from what I can see, there’s not a lot of growth. . . . Things are a little bit stagnant,” said John Orilio, 40, a municipal attorney in Utica, N.Y.

Characterizing the recession as moderate, he said it had not affected him much. But he added: “Local government is being affected by cutbacks in state aid.”

A majority of all sizable subgroups in the population believed that the nation was in recession, and a plurality of blacks, Latinos, Democrats and the elderly characterized the recession as serious.

Among regions of the country, 36% of Easterners believed that the recession was serious, compared to fewer than three out of 10 in the other regions.

On the positive side, almost two-thirds of respondents continued to describe their finances as secure, and more than two-thirds said they foresaw no change the next three months.

“My husband is a logger, and . . . we don’t have the kind of situation where you get laid off as easily, because he’s self-employed,” said Dian Steinfest, 46, of Gleason in northern Wisconsin.

“I really think the economy isn’t as bad as they say it is,” added Steinfest, who described her family’s finances as secure. “I believe that anyone can get a job that’s looking for one.”

Among ethnic groups, more than a quarter of blacks, or 28%, said their personal finances were shaky, compared to 11% of Americans generally.

In particular, the poll revealed that consumers continued to worry about job prospects. Some 32% said they expected unemployment in their area to be worse in three months, compared to 29% in June. Only 17% said they expected unemployment to be better, compared to 21% in June.

“There’s just no jobs, and it doesn’t seem like there are any jobs even being created hardly,” said Elbert Gee, 31, a cemetery worker in Anna, a town in the southern tip of Illinois, who described the recession as moderate. “The coal mines in the area are kind of hurting right now.”

“No one will give you a break these days. If you don’t have 10 years of experience, you’re out of luck,” said Lynn Rychlik, a 32-year-old registered nurse in Lombard, Ill., just outside Chicago.

One indicator hinted at an increase in confidence levels. About 29% of respondents said they expected to spend more money on purchases three months from now--that is, during the Christmas buying season. Only 17% said they would spend less. Among affluent respondents, 23% said they expected to spend more and 19% less.

In June, 26% of respondents said they would spend more and 18% less.

But these results alone are not strong enough to signal a rebound in confidence, Brennan said. “The public just does not seem to be buying the idea that there’s a recovery going on.”

Jerry H. Brown, 60, a retired medical secretary who lives in a suburb of Atlanta, was one of only 14% of respondents who said the nation is not in recession. “Everybody I know is working,” she said. “I can’t think of any of my friends complaining about losing their jobs. . . . Just give it time and everybody will be happy.”

The Times Poll: A Demographic Breakdown

Ratings (in percent)

Nation’s economy: Personal Finances: Robust Shaky Secure Shaky Men 23 76 68 31 Women 17 82 63 35 Anglos 21 78 68 30 Blacks 8 90 46 53 Latinos 20 77 59 39 Income less than $20,000 16 82 47 50 Income $20,000 to $40,000 18 81 65 34 Income over $40,000 22 78 77 23 Northeasterners 17 83 60 38 Midwesterners 20 79 69 30 Southerners 19 79 68 31 Westerners 24 75 63 34

No Improvement In Consumer Confidence Most Americans still think the economy is in recession- 3 in 10 think we are in a serious recession. Would you describe the state of the nation’s economy as: Very shaky: 28% Don’t know: 1% Very robust: 1% Fairly robust: 19% Fairly shaky: 51% Three months from now, do you expect the nation’s economy to be: About the same: 54% Don’t know: 4% Better: 21% Worse: 21%