Salvador Hopeful but Wary About Peace Pact : Central America: Cease-fire details must still be worked out. One expert says this could take six months.

The signing of a new agreement by El Salvador’s government and the country’s guerrilla movement was greeted here Thursday with public declarations of hope, balanced by private fears that the accord left the country far short of ending its 11-year civil war.

A spokesman for the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front, the umbrella organization for the guerrillas, praised the accord as “a historic victory for the entire Salvadoran nation.”

And the commander of the Salvadoran army’s 5th Brigade, Col. Carlos Rolando Herrarte, said the military “is perhaps the most satisfied of all” that a possible end is in sight to the 11-year war estimated to have killed more than 75,000.

But a damper on the euphoria came from the government.

“We are not returning with a peace accord under our arms to tell the Salvadoran people that from now on all is tranquillity,” government negotiator Oscar Santamaria said in a national television address after the agreement was signed Wednesday at the United Nations. “What we have done is overcome the blockages that until now made progress impossible” during 17 months of negotiations.

The seven-page agreement signed by President Alfredo Cristiani and the five commanders of the FMLN was generous in its broad strokes but short of details, leaving most of the implementation to another round of talks set to start Oct. 12 in Mexico. None of the agreements signed Wednesday, nor any reached in future rounds of talks, will take effect until after a cease-fire is accomplished. And while chief U.N. mediator Alvaro DeSoto predicted that the war could end by January, most experts were doubtful, one of them saying it could last another six months.

In a news conference Thursday, Cristiani was upbeat about the possibility of a cease-fire before year’s end, saying that a guerrilla leader had predicted an end to the fighting by Dec. 15.

But he said it “depends entirely on the good will of the FMLN. . . . Peace definitely will come the moment that the FMLN is incorporated into the civil process, but there is no set date.”

In sum, the parties agreed Wednesday to the establishment of a national peace commission made up of the FMLN, government officials and political party leaders under the auspices of the United Nations to monitor a cease-fire and other agreements.

It called for creation of a previously agreed upon civilian-run national police force open to former guerrillas and a reduction and “purification” of the existing military forces as well as a change in the training and “doctrine” of the armed forces.

Problems are expected, especially in dealing with purifying and reducing the military. The agreement provides for a special commission made up of the rebels and the army. But there are no guidelines or ground rules for its work, aimed at removing officers guilty of gross human rights abuses.

It also remains unclear whether the commission will actually negotiate an agreement or simply provide technical information and views to the larger national commission.

The criteria for reducing the size of the 57,000-member armed forces also are vague, saying that the parties “will determine the size of a reduced armed force in times of peace” and “will draw up a plan for reduction.”

Not dealt with in the agreements but still the most important factor blocking peace are the terms for a cease-fire itself. The government insists that the guerrillas disarm and demobilize with little breathing space and re-enter society. The guerrillas demand that they be left in control of territory they now hold and that disarming and demobilizing be held back until the FMLN is satisfied that the safety of its members is secure.

Since none of the agreements, including the one permitting the FMLN to apply for membership in the new police force, take effect until after a cease-fire, diplomats expect the guerrillas to be especially determined not to give up their arms based on faith in the good will of the government.

Despite these serious questions, there were expressions of satisfaction, even exultation Thursday. “I can say that we are advancing with firm steps toward the conquest of democracy, toward the conquest of our sovereignty and our true independence,” said Facundo Guardado, one of the FMLN leaders.

Herrarte noted, “Of course we (the military) are satisfied. How could we not be satisfied . . . because the FMLN is going to be part of civilized society. They are no longer going to be those savages who go around killing people.”

Cristiani came under attack from the radical right wing, even from his own vice president, during the New York talks, and he returned here for immediate talks with leaders of his Nationalist Republican Alliance (Arena) party in hopes of mitigating their opposition.

On the guerrilla side, there were no public signs of opposition. But, during the night Wednesday, a number of bombs were set off in the outskirts of the capital, and there was scattered fighting in the countryside, despite a truce called by the FMLN leaders.