ELECTION ’92 U.S. SENATE : Dannemeyer, Seymour Are Deadlocked in O.C. Poll : The senator and challenger were each favored by 23% of the Republican voters who responded. Nearly half were still undecided.

Among the Orange County voters who know them best, U.S. Sen. John Seymour is in a virtual dead heat with his Republican challenger, Rep. William E. Dannemeyer, nine months before they face each other on the June, 1992, ballot, a poll released Thursday shows.

Seymour and Dannemeyer, who have both made political careers in Orange County during the last decade, each were favored by 23% of the Republican voters who responded to the 1991 Orange County Annual Survey, which was conducted last month by UC Irvine.

Nearly half of the Republican respondents were still undecided in the contest, indicating to poll officials and campaign consultants that it is still too early for most voters to focus on next year’s U.S. Senate race.

But they also noted that the results show that neither of the two candidates entered so far in the GOP primary has captured the hearts of Orange County Republicans.

That could be bad news for Seymour, the former mayor and state senator from Anaheim who enters the race as a sitting U.S. senator blessed by the governor who appointed him in January and also by President Bush.

“You would expect Seymour . . . to have more support, but clearly conservatives and moderates in the party are divided,” said Mark Baldassare, the professor of social ecology who conducted the poll. “I think this will be one of the more interesting races in June, because it will tell us where the Republican Party is headed.”

Campaign officials for Dannemeyer, a congressman from Fullerton since 1978, were also encouraged by the results. “It tells me the field is wide open for a Dannemeyer challenge,” campaign coordinator Steve Baldwin said.

Seymour campaign officials did not characterize the results as good or bad. Instead, they played the poll down, saying it is a premature test that essentially reflects little more than name identification.

“My first answer is that ‘don’t-know’ wins,” said Richard McBride, Seymour’s campaign manager. “I think it’s pretty clear that we both have some base here . . . but it’s still extremely early in the campaign.”

Eileen Padberg, a Republican consultant who managed Seymour’s 1990 campaign for lieutenant governor, added: “The 23-23 (split) doesn’t represent whether they like one or the other. It means both candidates sound familiar; but nobody is interested right now in who is going to win the Senate race.”

The contest between Seymour and Dannemeyer has been billed as a moderate versus conservative showdown, but the survey found only a slight difference in support for the candidates among voters from the two wings of the party.

Moderates favored Seymour by 6 points and Dannemeyer led among conservatives by 5 points. But both results are within the survey’s margin of error.

The Orange County Annual Survey contacted 1,002 adults by phone between Sept. 4 and 21. That sample included 495 registered Republican voters, whose opinions were used to measure attitudes in the GOP Senate primary.

The error margin for the overall survey is plus or minus 3%. For the smaller category of Republican respondents, Baldassare said the error margin is 5%. Another 288 Democratic voters were surveyed by the poll regarding primaries for their party.

There are two U.S. Senate races in 1992, one for the seat vacated last year by Wilson and the other for the seat now held by retiring Sen. Alan Cranston. The survey examined voter attitudes on all four primaries taking shape for the June, 1992, ballot.

Currently, Dianne Feinstein is the only announced Democratic candidate for Seymour’s Senate seat, and the poll reported that she had a wide lead over a possible primary opponent, State Controller Gray Davis. Feinstein led 38% to 26%, with just less than a third of voters undecided.

In the Republican primary for Cranston’s seat, conservative television commentator Bruce Herschensohn was leading Rep. Tom Campbell (R-San Jose) 30% to 19% with 46% undecided. Herschensohn’s lead increased to 22 points among conservative Republicans and Campbell was favored by moderates.

In the Democratic primary for Cranston’s seat, Lt. Gov. Leo McCarthy had a huge lead over two other Democrats considered by the poll, Reps. Barbara Boxer (D-Greenbrae) and Mel Levine (D-Santa Monica).

McCarthy, who lost a U.S. Senate race in 1988 to Wilson, was favored by 35% of the Democratic respondents, 26 points ahead of Boxer and 29 points up on Levine.

The poll also sought to profile the Orange County voter. It found that Republicans are younger, more affluent and slightly more educated than Democrats.

Political Profile

Living up to Orange County’s image, 44% of all voters describe themselves as very or somewhat conservative, while liberals added up to 30%. In the U.S. Senate race, the county’s own John Seymour and William E. Dannemeyer are neck and neck among county voters, but nearly half of the county’s Republicans are undecided. 1991 Orange County Voter Profile: Republicans: Very Conservative: 17% Very Liberal: 3% Somewhat Liberal: 13% Middle of the Road: 25% Somewhat Conservative: 42% Democrats: Very Conservative: 5% Very Liberal: 17% Somewhat Liberal: 32% Middle of the Road: 29% Somewhat Conservative: 17% All Voters: Very Conservative: 12% Very Liberal: 9% Somewhat Liberal: 21% Middle of the Road: 26% Somewhat Conservative: 32% Wilson U.S. Senate Seat

If you were voting today in the Republican Primary for the U.S. Senate seat, which candidate would you vote for?

All Liberal-Moderates Conservatives Rep. Dannemeyer 23% 15% 29% U.S. Sen. Seymour 23 21 24 Other 7 10 5 Don’t Know 47 54 42

SOURCE: Orange County Annual Survey