Predicting When Ads Wear Thin
Imagine if the people who invented Joe Isuzu could have predicted precisely when consumers would grow weary of his lies. Or what if the makers of the ever-rambling Eveready rabbit could know--many months head of time--exactly when viewers will be bored with the bunny.
That might sound like a fleeting dream to advertisers. Most discover too late--when sales go down the dumpster--that a spot has lost its effectiveness. Today, most advertisers rely on rather unscientific research that usually involves asking consumers what they remember about ads.
But the day may be fast approaching when advertisers can accurately predict, far ahead of time, when their commercial campaigns will wear out. One of the nation’s largest television advertising research firms has devised a complex computer model that the company contends can accurately forecast when commercials should be replaced.
If advertisers know in advance when their TV commercials will whither, they will also know when to replace the ads with fresher spots. That means advertisers could stop wasting money by broadcasting commercials that are boring viewers. And it might even improve sales.
“Agencies should be accountable for their advertising,” said R. B. Collier, chairman of Research Systems Corp., the Evansville, Ind. firm that developed the system. “An advertiser ought to know ahead of time when something is going to die out. At a given point, all ads begin to saturate the market. The smart guys can predict it.”
The firm asks advertisers to supply it with very specific TV advertising schedules for the commercials. It then combines this information with its own research that measures the persuasiveness of each ad with more than 1,000 consumers. Ultimately, the company says, it can forecast within weeks--and sometimes days--of the time an ad will lose its punch with consumers.
Research Systems says its system has proved to be accurate with 120 TV spots aired during the past three years. Although its research has impressed some very big-time clients, including Procter & Gamble, Campbell’s Soup and Johnson & Johnson, it has not exactly been embraced by advertising agencies.
“There is a suspicious side to me that says: How can they prove they are correct?” said Peter Stranger, president of the Los Angeles office of Della Femina McNamee. Stranger notes that other issues must be considered when airing TV commercials, such as changes in competitors’ advertising and changes in the world situation. But, Stranger adds, “any help you can get in this area is better than none.”
Far more impressed with the potential of the research is Steve Scott, partner at the Los Angeles ad firm Scott/Lancaster. “If they can really do what they say they can do, it would be one heck of a valuable service,” he said.
The research did not elicit much comment from the Advertising Research Foundation, the New York City organization to which most ad researchers belong. “If they can predict wear out, that is great,” said Mike Naples, president of the group. But he declined to comment on the firm’s methods.
Although there are some skeptics, Research Systems is certainly satisfying some very large consumer product clients. Among them is the Advanced Care Products division of Ortho Pharmaceutical. Ortho is a unit of Johnson & Johnson.
“The most surprising thing we have learned is how fast some commercials wear out,” said Bill Nealon, associate director of marketing research at Advanced Care. A study by Research Systems indicated that one particular commercial for Monistat vaginal yeast suppository would lose viewership within just 12 weeks. “The initial response of our marketing department was disbelief,” said Nealon.
But a backup commercial was produced, and after 12 weeks of airing the first commercial, sales started to slip. The newer commercial began to air and sales picked up again.
Marketers of Micatin anti-fungal ointment also rely on research from Research Systems to help them decide how long to keep commercials on the air. That’s why a commercial showing a woman who grabs a bottle of Micatin from the druggist’s hand is airing in some markets--where it is still effective--but not in others--where it is not.
So, how much does an advertiser pay for all this research? That depends on scope and scheduling of the commercial. But rates average about $14,000 for a single commercial.
“If you pay $5 million to run an ad and several hundred thousand to produce it,” said Collier, “that’s peanuts.”
Two Big Accounts Up for Grabs Soon
Two of the state’s biggest ad accounts may be up for review soon.
The $16-million California Department of Health Services’ anti-smoking campaign was recently put up for review, as required by law. Its agency is Venice-based Livingston & Keye. And sources in Sacramento say the $34-million California Lottery business may also be under review soon. The current agency is Los Angeles-based Dailey & Associates.
The Fickleness of Fast-Food Customers
Fast-food chains are hard-pressed for customer loyalty these days. No fast-food chain in the country enjoys even a simple majority of its customers’ visits to such eateries, according to the Brea marketing research firm Sandelman & Associates.
Even McDonald’s has a relatively small customer loyalty base in the Southland, said Bob Sandelman, president of the firm. People who go to McDonald’s once a month in the Los Angeles market typically devote more than 70% of their fast-food visits to other chains, he said.
