Postscript : Plane Truth: Just Another Iraqi Miscue : Whatever happened to the 130 jets that fled to Iran? Months after the Gulf War’s end, there’s still no sign that Hussein will get them back.

A week into last winter’s Persian Gulf War, Iraqi combat planes began scrambling over their eastern border for the safety of Iranian airstrips, opening a still-mysterious chapter in the conflict.

Perhaps only Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and his top military clique know for sure why the cream of his air force was sent hurtling beyond the reach of superior, U.S.-led forces into the hands of a longtime enemy, perhaps never to fight again.

Early speculation that the pilots were defecting has been put aside. Military analysts now figure Hussein either thought he had a deal with Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani to spare the planes from the allied onslaught or, more likely, acted unilaterally with hopes of eventually forcing a repatriation.

What is clear eight months later is that the Iraqi leader miscalculated--again. Rafsanjani’s regime has shown no willingness to return the estimated 130 or more fugitive aircraft into Hussein’s hands.

“In fact, the Iranians only admit to having 22,” noted Col. Andrew Duncan of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. “Presumably, that’s all they intend to return--if that.”

None have been returned so far, nor has there been any definite word on the Iraqi pilots. However, a delegation from Kuwait held talks in Tehran last month on the fate of six Kuwaiti Airways airbuses that were seized by Iraqi forces in the August, 1990, invasion, flown to Iraq and subsequently sent to presumed sanctuary in the airfields of western Iran. The airbuses, which were repainted in the green-and-white colors of Iraqi Airways, have been taken to the airfield at Mashhad in far eastern Iran, according to British press reports.

According to Western intelligence reports, the warplanes that reached Iran included the best of Iraq’s air force. Hussein had 689 combat planes when the war began, Institute for Strategic Studies figures show. The Pentagon put the number closer to 600. In either case, it was the biggest air fleet in the Middle East, surpassing those of both Israel and Syria.

The fugitive squadrons--running a gantlet of allied and, initially, Iranian interceptors that left some of them badly damaged or in flames--included 24 French-made Mirage F1 fighters, 75 Soviet Sukhoi fighter-bombers of various models and 16 Russian-made MIGs, four of them the highly regarded MIG-29, whose “look-down” radar enabled it to engage low-flying aircraft, posing a threat to allied airmen during the war.

Also reaching Iran, according to the London institute, were one or both of the Iraqi copies of the American AWACS (airborne warning and control system) plane.

With another 25 or so civilian aircraft, including the Kuwaiti Airbuses, the total Iraqi aircraft that reached Iran is about 140, the London institute says. Pentagon figures are similar--about 130.

By contrast, Jordan has 104 combat planes. The Pentagon estimates the size of Baghdad’s postwar air force at slightly more than 300 aircraft.

Western intelligence agencies are especially interested in the MIG-29s that Iraqi pilots sheltered in Iran. (The Pentagon estimates their number at eight, twice the London institute’s figure.) Dubbed the Fulcrum when introduced to the Soviet air force in the 1980s, the MIG-29 is of particular interest because Iranian pilots are also trained to fly the aircraft, and their Soviet advisers presumably would be able to keep the Iraqi planes in flying trim.

But none of Hussein’s planes--either in Iraq or Iran--are flying, intelligence sources in Washington said. Under the U.N. cease-fire resolution, no Iraqi warplanes may leave the ground (and combat helicopters are limited to the central part of the country).

A report in the Independent, a British daily, however, said the Iraqi Fulcrums are already being flown by Iranian pilots. Quoting unidentified Iranian sources and analysts at the respected Jane’s Defense Weekly, the article said the commandeered Iraqi aircraft have been seen flying over the western Iranian cities of Dezful and Ahvaz, and are based at three airfields in Kermanshah province bordering Iraq.

The Iranian air force was built up by the late Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi in the 1960s and 1970s in close coordination with the Pentagon, and its fleet was almost entirely American-made: McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantoms, Northrop’s F-5 Tigers and the Grumman-built F-14 Tomcats. When the shah was deposed by the Islamic revolution in 1979 and radical students seized the American Embassy in Tehran, the U.S.-Iran connection was broken. Iran was hard-pressed to keep its American planes flying during the 1980-88 war with Iraq for lack of parts and training.

When that war ended, Tehran turned to Moscow, striking a deal for MIG-29s, the first of which arrived in Iran last winter.

In late January, when the Iraqi planes began landing at Iranian airports, Baghdad Radio confirmed the surprise reports by saying: “A number of our planes were obliged . . . to land in Iran, and contacts are under way regarding the return of the aircraft and the pilots to their homeland.” The wording raised the scent of defections.

Hussein sent his then-key trouble-shooter, Saadoun Hammadi, whom he recently fired as prime minister, to Tehran to work out a deal. Hammadi returned empty-handed as Iranian officials said they intended to keep both the planes and their pilots until the end of the war--a decision perhaps prompted by apparent American readiness to go after the aircraft if it appeared they would re-enter the battle.

According to some analysts, it was retribution time for the Iranians. In the 1980-88 war, they recalled, Hussein sometimes sent his planes into allied gulf nations to escape Iranian air attacks. This time that avenue was closed, and the Iraqi strongman may have decided to count on Iran, which he had embraced in a practical peace when the American-led coalition began forming in the Gulf War.

But the Iranians apparently see the arrival of more than 100 warplanes as a gift horse, more so now that the Iraqi military machine has been crushed. “There has been the occasional press report that Iranian roundels (insignias) are being painted on those planes,” noted Duncan of the Institute for Strategic Studies.

Iraq’s Air Fleet: A Casualty of War Pentagon estimates of Iraq’s shrinking arsenal of military planes: 600 Combat aircraft before Operation Desert Storm 130 Flown to safety in Iran during Gulf War Destroyed in shelters by coalition bombardment: 58 presumed but not confirmed 55 confirmed 35 Shot down by coalition air forces 16 Destroyed or captured by ground forces 6 Crashed during war in noncombat situations 300 Combat aircraft after Operation Desert Storm

The Iraqi planes that fled to Iran included French-made Mirage F1s, Soviet-made Sukhois and MIGs, and an Iraqi version of the U.S. airborne warning and control system (AWACS) plane. The West is particularly interested in the fate of the MIG-29s, advanced jets that can fly 2.3 times the speed of sound and whose “look-down” radar is a threat to low-flying planes and cruise missiles. Iranian pilots are trained to fly the MIG-29s and would likely be able to keep them in operating condition. Source: U.S. Defense Department

Times staff writer Melissa Healy in Washington also contributed to this article.