Will Zambia Prove Contagious?

Africa’s vibrant pro-democracy movements continue to force out autocratic heads of state. Zambia’s President Kenneth Kaunda is the latest leader to lose power.

Kaunda lost overwhelmingly in the first multiparty election held in Zambia in 17 years. The loss was significant because the elder politician had ruled since he peacefully led the nation to independence from Britain in 1964.

During his tenure, Zambians depended heavily on revenues from rich and extensive copper deposits. They benefitted until the 1970s when a steep decline in copper prices took a toll on jobs, schools, hospitals and farms. Broad economic discontent exacerbated strong political dissent.

Like many African heads of state, Kaunda tolerated no political opposition. He ran a one-party state. He jailed opponents. He closed the major university after student protests. He refused to schedule a contested election until finally forced this year to do so by mushrooming support for the Movement for a Multiparty Democracy.

Kaunda has accepted his stunning defeat to trade unionist Frederick Chiluba. Chiluba’s huge victory, which was monitored by international observers including former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, should serve as a model for a peaceful transition to democracy. The election results should also forewarn African leaders who have amassed much worse records.

Zaire’s ruthless and corrupt Mobutu Sese Seko is estimated to be worth more than $1 billion. While he makes himself rich, ever more Zaireans endure poverty. Even those who work cannot count on paychecks. Mobutu’s government recently refused for weeks to pay soldiers, who took their protests to the streets last month. The chaos forced Mobutu to name an opposition leader as prime minister (he dismissed the appointee several days later).

Kenya’s Daniel Arap Moi is also accused of corruption, cronyism and harsh oppression of the opposition. His horrid human rights record has prompted benefactors, including the United States, to reduce foreign aid. Are his days also numbered?

Dictators rarely give up power without violence. Yet nearly 25 sub-Saharan nations are either democratic or in transition. Change typically has come via bullets rather than ballots. The message remains the same: Africans want democracy. Who will be the next dictator to go?