NEWS ANALYSIS : Syrians Played Their Strong Hand Poorly : Mideast talks: Israel outfoxed foe, protector of Arab sovereignty, in public opinion tussle.

Syria, Israel’s most formidable adversary and the gatekeeper of hard-line Arab politics, had figured to dominate the landscape at the Middle East peace conference. Instead, Syria proved to be a paper tiger, outmaneuvered by Israel in the theater of public opinion and helpless to control the Arabs’ slow movement toward the peace table.

As Arabs and Israelis sat down for their first face-to-face talks in 43 years of turbulent history, all the lessons of the new Middle East came sharply into play. One of the new lessons was that radical regimes like Syria no longer can be expected to control the Arab-Israeli agenda.

Syria, which had intended to ride in to the conference as the protector of Arab sovereignty, instead was left in the unsavory role of spoiler--a victim of Israel’s clever propaganda apparatus and the Arabs’ own impatience with diplomatic brinkmanship in the midst of what may be the last chance for peace in the troubled region.

“Syria is losing control of the other Arab delegations. The Syrians have for many years been trying to control the pace and the agenda of the Arab-Israeli negotiations, and they do not seem to be controlling them now,” said Daniel Pipes, a U.S.-based Middle East analyst.

What became apparent in three days of opening ceremonies and a day of direct, bilateral talks here was that those with the most to lose from remaining in conflict with Israel--the Palestinians--no longer have the patience to rally behind radical standard bearers like Syria, if it means delaying the progress of peace talks.

Indeed, there have been visible splits within the Palestinian movement itself over the proper path to peace; this was mirrored in demonstrations in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip, which have alternated between angry protests against the peace conference to the waving of olive branches at Israeli soldiers.

It was perhaps an indicator of the tide of the future that the delegation from the occupied territories representing the Palestinians in Madrid gained international media attention--and enthusiastic backing of most other Arabs--with their moderate offer to “live side by side on the land” with Israel.

Palestine Liberation Organization Chairman Yasser Arafat’s call for jihad--or holy war--in the event that the peace talks fail went virtually unnoticed.

Syria’s stridence over the past week, an echo of a radical Arab past, landed flat in Madrid. While the Arabs sought to play down divisions in their camp, it was clear that the Palestinians winced when Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Shareh unleashed his tirade against Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir, accusing him of involvement in terrorism and asserting that the migration of Jews to Israel was “not sanctioned by any humanitarian or legal principle.”

“I have to say that all of us were happy to hear him say it,” said a Palestinian journalist at the talks. “I would even say that Farouk Shareh is probably more popular in the territories today than Yasser Arafat and (Iraqi President) Saddam Hussein combined. But now was not the time to say it.”

Syria lost more ground with the other Arabs when it indicated it would not go to the first bilateral talks as long as Israel was talking about moving them to another site, setting off an excruciating round of maneuvering that left all parties wondering for days whether the crucial discussions would have to be scrapped entirely.

Arab diplomats maneuvering behind the scenes were trying to persuade Syria to show up and let Israel be the one to walk out. Syria pressed the point, seeking to win agreement from other Arabs to delay the talks’ opening. It lost.

Palestinian spokeswoman Hanan Ashrawi has said there were no disagreements in the Arab delegations. But other Palestinian sources said that Ashrawi and Shareh sharply disagreed over the opening of the bilateral talks; in the end, Saudi and Egyptian mediators patched together a compromise in which all the Arabs met in the same building on the same day, maintaining Syria’s charade that the talks continued in an international forum.

“They came out as a clear loser in comparison with the other Arab parties,” said an Arab diplomat, one of several who accused Syria of taking Israel’s bait by arguing over details. “Do you think the rest of us are going to make fools of ourselves, arguing about what room we’re going to talk in, and what time?”

Still, most analysts say, it is unwise to count Syria out. Much of its posturing was for a domestic audience for whom Syrian President Hafez Assad cannot suddenly appear to be a moderate after years of seeming to be a radical. What is more important, several analysts said, is that Syria did go to the talks.

“They sat there for 5 1/2 hours. There was no possibility whatsoever, not one in a million, that they could actually agree in that meeting, but the important thing was that it didn’t break up, either,” said a senior Egyptian diplomat.

Syria also stands to play an increasingly important role as the talks proceed, if, indeed, they do. While it may be the Palestinians who most want to make peace with Israel, it is Syria with whom Israel most wants to make peace--and Syria stands in a position to offer Israel the security assurances it demands.

“Syria has more to offer in terms of security, although the Palestinians have more to offer in terms of the human dimension,” Egyptian political analyst Tahseen Basheer said. “Definitely, Syria has a bigger voice than the other Arabs. But it will exercise that as we go on, not now. Syria knows that the main negotiating partner in substance today is Syria and Israel, not the Palestinians and Israel. Syria is still the strongest delegation among the Arab delegations in Madrid, and none of the others will easily depart from the Syrian position.”

What may really be at work is not a waning of Syrian influence as much as the stronger position of other Arabs as they come to the peace table--they are more capable of fashioning a realistic compromise and are no longer constrained by the Cold War polarization that marked Arab politics of the past, said another Arab delegate to the talks.

“What has happened is the maturing of the Arab position,” he said. “The Palestinians have banged heads with the Israelis; the Jordanians have felt the effects of the Gulf War. And, as these people’s role has matured, it appears Syria’s role has decreased. It hasn’t.”