Economic Woes Unraveling GOP Coalition, Poll Finds : Politics: Internal discontent could hurt Bush. Most voters no longer see themselves as better off than in past.

The nation’s prolonged economic distress appears to be straining the coalition that has helped the Republican Party dominate presidential politics for more than a decade, according to data released Tuesday from a new nationwide poll.

The survey, conducted by the Times Mirror Center for People and the Press, found that two crucial components of the alliance that sent Ronald Reagan and George Bush to the White House differ sharply on the impact of the current slump and possible remedies. The two factions are social conservatives, who favor an aggressive government response to the recession, and fiscal conservatives, who oppose such an approach.

In broader terms, the poll showed that there is no longer a majority of voters who view themselves as financially better off now than in the past. This was the key test that then-candidate Reagan broached in the 1980 presidential campaign to help him defeat Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter.

In the new poll, 40% of those interviewed said they are better off now than they were four years ago, while 43% said they are worse off. By contrast, among those polled in the spring of 1987, those who viewed themselves as better off prevailed by 48% to 20%

The survey of 2,020 adults was taken from Oct. 31 to Nov. 10. For results based on the entire sample, the margin of error is plus-or-minus 2 percentage points.

On foreign policy issues, the GOP still gets high marks. The poll found that 56% agreed that the policies of Reagan and Bush helped speed the end of communism. And 84% endorsed the idea that the Persian Gulf War showed “that the U.S. can still unite and accomplish things.”

Indeed, the poll suggests that the generally positive response to the war has helped prevent greater erosion of Bush’s approval rating in the face of economic hard times.

Even though 61% of those interviewed are dissatisfied with the state of the nation, 55% approve of Bush’s performance in the Oval Office. Bush’s score is slightly higher than Reagan and President Richard M. Nixon received at the same stages of their first terms.

Contributing to Bush’s relatively high approval rating is the positive reaction he gets from the 51% of those polled who, though they are dissatisfied with the state of the nation, view the Gulf War as demonstrating national unity.

Bush presumably would benefit from such attitudes about the war in a general election campaign against the Democrats, most of whom opposed the decision to use force against Iraq rather than continue economic sanctions.

But a more immediate threat to Bush looms within his own party. As he prepares to confront prospective challenges to his renomination from former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke and conservative columnist Patrick J. Buchanan, the poll showed that only 48% of Republicans are satisfied with the way things are going in the country. This is a drop from 64% when Bush took office.

Most of the discontent seems concentrated within a core Republican group identified by the Times Mirror polling typology as “Moralists”--a group heavily concentrated in the South with conservative views on social issues but with populist views on economic policies.

Only 42% of the Moralists said they are content with the state of the nation. By contrast, 54% of pro-business, fiscally conservative Republicans--labeled “Enterprisers” by the poll--expressed satisfaction with the state of the nation.

And Moralists are not as loyal to Bush as Enterprisers. Only 72% would support him against an unnamed Democrat in 1992, compared to 85% of the Enterprisers.

In another key difference, a majority of Enterprisers favor using cuts in defense spending --the so-called “peace dividend”--for reduction of the federal deficit rather than for social spending. Among the Moralists, a plurality favors the opposite view.

Among Enterprisers, only 23% strongly favor taxing the rich; among Moralists, 47% strongly favor the idea. Only 35% of Enterprisers strongly believe U.S. jobs should be protected against foreign competition, compared to 57% of the Moralists.

These divisions between key GOP voter groups come at a time when the Bush White House and Republican congressional leaders are divided about how the Administration should respond to the economic downturn.

Another problem facing Bush--one that could persist into a general election campaign--is that people 50 years of age and older seem more discontented and more inclined to vote for change than the rest of the population. The poll found that only 25% of citizens 50 and older are satisfied with the state of the nation, compared to 44% for those under 30.

This is disturbing news for Bush because older people traditionally are more likely to vote than younger citizens.

Are You Better Off?

A new Times Mirror poll found that, compared to 1987, fewer people consider themselves better off financially today than four years ago. Then-candidate Ronald Reagan raised that question effectively in the 1980 presidential campaign, and the drop in people who currently view themselves as better off could hamper President Bush’s reelection chances.

Percent who consider themselves better off today than four years ago:

Year 1987* 1991 % change Total sample 48% 40% -8% By party identification Republicans 57% 52% -5% Democrats 39% 34% -5% Independents 50% 34% -16% By age 18-29 years old 59% 55% -4% 30-49 years old 54% 43% -11% 50+ years old 32% 26% -6% By family income $50,000+ 71% 60% -11% $30,000-49,999 59% 47% -12% $20,000-29,999 54% 39% -15% Less than $20,000 34% 25% -9%

* In 1987, survey respondents were asked if they viewed themselves as better off than they had been five years before.

Source: Times Mirror Center for the People and the Press