A High-Risk Trip--for Very High Stakes : Upcoming Asia swing for Bush is redolent with risk

President Bush will be aboard Air Force One a week from today en route to Asia. It could be one of the toughest trips of his presidency. Having postponed the visit once because of criticism that he spends too much time on foreign affairs, Bush will venture across the Pacific in a bold but risky bid to use diplomacy to bolster the economy.

It’s a touchy proposition at best. Worse yet, Bush is now advertising the trip as a potential savior for U.S. exports and the economy. But the sizzle in that sell invites trouble in Washington and Tokyo. Indeed, sniping already has begun: Some congressional Democrats have moved to raise the ugly specter of protectionism if the President fails to secure Japanese commitments to buy more U.S. products. And Tokyo is wary of the possibility of American demagoguery that would target other nations, even though U.S. economic woes are largely home-grown.

THE DIPLOMACY: Still, the President is right to resurrect his visit to Australia, Singapore, South Korea and Japan. He wants to emphasize that the United States considers itself a Pacific nation--one that’s not preoccupied with Europe and the Middle East. With the Cold War’s end, Washington faces new security considerations in the Asia-Pacific area. And U.S. trade with Asian nations has been growing at a faster clip than trade with Europe, often to the disadvantage of Americans. This is particularly true in commerce with Japan, and certainly the issue will be discussed in Bush’s first meeting with new Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa.

Throughout his 12-day trip, Bush will emphasize what he has described as the need for “our friends and allies” who have benefited from open U.S. markets to “share the responsibility for an open trading system.”

The Japanese have made progress on dismantling formal barriers to U.S. imports, but formidable non-governmental and cultural barriers persist. In an unprecedented move, the President is taking with him about 20 executives, including the heads of the Big Three U.S. auto makers.

THE ECONOMY: Bush’s trade talk seems to be hardening as the U.S. economy fails to shake the stubborn grip of the recession. General Motors was the latest in a string of blue chip companies to announce huge layoffs. The gross domestic product grew only 1.8% in the summer. There’s talk of tax cuts to stimulate the economy, and the Fed on Friday moved to push interest rates down again, cutting the discount rate 1%.

Record U.S. exports in October were a nice departure from the gloom; while trade alone cannot solve the nation’s woes, such upticks help return people to work. Still the Democrats have come out slinging with new, ill-conceived protectionist legislation. House Majority Leader Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.) would require Japan to reduce its trade surplus with the United States. In addition to goading Tokyo to assert itself, the bill would probably lead to higher prices for U.S. consumers.

So Bush goes abroad with his backside exposed to Democratic sniping and his feet stuck in an economic quagmire. What a way to go.