Warm-Up Over, It’s Sprint Time for Democrats

After months on the warm-up track, the six contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination now face a sprint to decision.

In just six weeks, the candidates square off in the Feb. 18 New Hampshire primary that almost certainly will establish the front-runners and possibly eliminate as much as half the field from serious contention.

In the frenetic four weeks that follow New Hampshire, the Democrats must run a gantlet of 29 primaries and caucuses that will select almost half of the delegates to the party’s national convention.

The results of these far-flung early contests--which range from a six-pack of primarily Western states on March 3, to the Southern showdown on Super Tuesday a week later--will determine whether the race reaches the quick conclusion many party leaders seek, or evolves into a debilitating marathon.

With money and time both tight, the campaigns face difficult decisions on where to invest their resources. All are focusing intensely on New Hampshire, which has gained even more prominence than usual this year because the first contest--Iowa’s Feb. 10 caucuses--has been virtually ceded to home-state Sen. Tom Harkin.

But none of the six candidates have accepted the historic front-runner’s burden of competing virtually everywhere. Instead, most are constructing regional redoubts: Harkin and Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey in the Midwest, Govs. L. Douglas Wilder of Virginia and Bill Clinton of Arkansas in the South.

“Essentially because of the financial and political limitations they face, everyone is focusing on territory where they would get a black eye if they lost,” says Democratic strategist Bill Carrick.

As in previous years, events are likely to overrun many of these plans. Most importantly, the winner in New Hampshire may find it impossible to write off almost any of the contests that follow without sacrificing the momentum he earns from the first primary.

“Anyone who comes out of New Hampshire (ahead) is going to be in competition in some places where he might not have expected,” says Larry Harrington, the senior political adviser to the Kerrey campaign.

Most analysts believe that dynamic could most powerfully affect Clinton, the candidate the press has tagged as the front-runner. Clinton’s campaign has planned to downplay most of the states in the two weeks after New Hampshire. Instead he hopes to build momentum in the South for Super Tuesday by winning South Carolina’s March 7 primary, and Georgia--if it moves up its primary to March 3 from its current date on Super Tuesday.

But if Clinton cements his press-appointed front-runner status with a strong New Hampshire showing, that plan becomes “a very risky strategy,” says Democratic consultant Joe Trippi, who is advising Wilder.

“Then it’s up to Clinton to go out West and continue proving he’s a national candidate,” says Trippi, in comments echoed by the other campaigns. “By allowing Kerrey and Harkin to fight it out (in the Western states after New Hampshire), he could allow either to emerge as an alternative.”

On the other hand, whoever wins New Hampshire will receive such a boost in publicity, momentum and money that he will become instantly competitive in states where he now has little presence. “New Hampshire is the tidal wave and the rest of the country is the beach,” says Democratic strategist Brian Lunde, who directed Illinois Sen. Paul Simon’s 1988 presidential campaign.

Establishing early momentum will be critical for all the candidates because the compacted calendar leaves very little time to recover from a misstep. Adding to the pressure to perform well early is the fact that more than 760 “super delegates” to the convention--including Democratic National Committee members, governors and members of Congress--will begin to state their preferences in March. These party leaders represent more than one-third of the 2,144 delegates needed for the nomination.

Balancing against these pressures for an early resolution is a change in the party rules from 1988 that requires states to distribute delegates strictly in proportion to the vote the candidates receive. That means no state can award bonus delegates to the top finisher, and could make it more difficult for anyone to quickly amass a majority.

Here’s a look at the emerging strategies for the early stages of the Democratic contest.

IOWA: Democrats here feel as lonely as a truck-stop operator bypassed by a new interstate. With Harkin expected to win handily, and neighboring Sen. Kerrey expected to finish second, none of the other candidates have launched “any perceptible on-the-ground activity,” says Tim Raftis, Harkin’s campaign manager. The candidates are so uninterested in Iowa that the Des Moines Register was forced to cancel a debate scheduled for Jan. 10. The only contender aggressively campaigning in Iowa is former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr., who is scheduled to spend all of this week in the state and hopes to swipe second place from Kerrey.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: By contrast, the candidates’ schedules eloquently underscore New Hampshire’s pivotal role. In January alone, former Massachusetts Sen. Paul E. Tsongas is scheduled to spend 12 days in the state, Clinton 13 days, Harkin from 11 to 15 days and Kerrey 20 days. That is on top of a time commitment in 1991 that ranged from 41 days for Tsongas to more than two dozen for Kerrey, 16 for Harkin and 13 for Clinton--more than they have devoted to any other state.

For Tsongas, who shares the lead with Clinton in the most recent New Hampshire polls, a poor finish here--perhaps anything less than victory--could effectively end his campaign. The others may have more leeway, but not much. Because those trailing here will likely find it difficult to raise money, “it looks like there is room for only three at the most to come out of New Hampshire with viability,” Lunde says.

THE “LESSER ANTILLES”: Democratic operatives tagged the states between New Hampshire and Super Tuesday with this label to symbolize their minor significance in 1988. But they will speak more loudly this time. Four years ago, the so-called Lesser Antilles comprised five states with only 143 delegates. This year, clustered into that 20-day crunch are 15 contests, largely in the Western half of the country, electing 480 delegates--more than Illinois, Michigan and Ohio combined.

The first stop comes just five days after New Hampshire in Maine--whose caucuses have typically seconded the decision of the Granite State.

Both Harkin and Kerrey have focused attention on the Midwestern states that follow--setting up potential showdowns in the South Dakota primary on Feb. 25 (which has also attracted interest from Clinton) and the March 3 Minnesota caucus, where Harkin has spent more time than anyone else and grabbed the organizational lead.

Kerrey is also hoping for a boost from seven Western states that will vote before Super Tuesday--including Nevada on March 8 and Colorado on March 3, where he has recruited many of former Colorado Sen. Gary Hart’s former supporters. Both Clinton and Tsongas could choose Colorado as a test of their national viability after a good showing in New Hampshire.

Clinton has devoted more attention, though, to South Carolina and Georgia, whose Legislature will vote this month on whether to move up its primary. That sets him on a collision course with Wilder, who is also hoping for strong showings among black voters in both states to propel him into Super Tuesday.

Also central to Wilder’s strategy is a victory on March 3 in Maryland, where he leads in the most recent poll. Tsongas and Harkin are also targeting that state. Brown won the state in his 1976 presidential bid, but he has not yet focused on it this time.

SUPER TUESDAY: It’s not quite as super as four years ago, but it still looms as the single most demanding day on the calendar. Four years ago, 20 states selecting 1,307 delegates voted on Super Tuesday; this year 12 states, seven of them in the South, will elect 859 delegates on March 10. That total could drop further if schedule changes are approved in Georgia and Texas, which may have to move back its primary to April because of a redistricting dispute.

Most analysts expect Clinton to run well in such states as Oklahoma, Louisiana and Mississippi--though Wilder, with his base in the black community, could compete. The key for Clinton may be whether he can take the day’s twin towers: Florida and Texas, if it doesn’t move its primary date back. In 1988, Michael S. Dukakis blunted the South’s impact by outspending Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr. to snatch both of those states.

This year, no one is likely to have the funds to emulate that strategy. But Kerrey, Harkin and Tsongas hope that momentum from New Hampshire might allow them to share the headlines and delegates by winning non-Southern states, such as Massachusetts and Rhode Island, as well as Florida--which has swung to the New Hampshire winner in each race since 1976.

ILLINOIS AND MICHIGAN: In three of the last four elections, Illinois has played a critical role in settling the outcome; voting this year with Michigan on March 17, it could again. Clinton has targeted Illinois “as the place where you stake out you are not just a Southern candidate,” says his media adviser Frank Greer. Through December, Clinton spent more time in Illinois than Texas or Florida.

After March 17, the race slows and turns to such industrial states as New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio that vote in April and early May. Many Democrats--eager for a quick resolution that will allow the party to focus its fire on President Bush--hope the nomination will be long decided by then.

But only unpredictability is certain once the race passes from the pundits to the voters. “Anybody who thinks they can control this process or plan it out and execute it is nuts,” Trippi says. “The best laid plans always go astray.”

Times researcher D’Jamila Salem contributed to this story.

The Early Democratic Votes

Here are some key dates in the race for the Democratic nomination.

Feb. 10 Iowa caucus Feb. 18 New Hampshire primary Feb. 23 Maine caucus Feb. 25 South Dakota primary March 3 Colorado primary Idaho caucus Maryland primary Washington caucus Minnesota caucus Utah primary March 5-19 North Dakota caucus March 7 Arizona caucus South Carolina primary Wyoming caucus March 8 Nevada caucus March 10 Delaware caucus Florida primary *Georgia primary Hawaii caucus Louisiana primary Massachusetts primary Mississippi primary Missouri caucus Oklahoma primary Rhode Island primary Tennessee primary **Texas primary March 15 Puerto Rico primary March 17 **Illinois primary Michigan primary

* Georgia may move its primary up to March 3

** Redistricting may affect primary dates in Texas and Illinois