Apocalypse Not Quite Now? : Vance’s wise proposal is luring Yugoslavia back from the brink

Last Thursday, Serbian and Croatian military leaders agreed to a proposal by U.N. Special Envoy Cyrus Vance that the Yugoslav Federal Army--in effect, the Serbian army--withdraw from the Croatian territory it has occupied. Croatia is not to reoccupy the territory. Instead, according to the agreement, the territory, about one-third of the current Republic of Croatia, will be handed over to U.N. peacekeepers once a cease-fire has clearly taken hold.

Against the expectations of many, the latest cease-fire does seem to be holding. On Monday U.N. Secretary General Boutros Boutros Ghali asked the Security Council to send 50 observers immediately. The Vance plan calls for subsequent deployment of a force of 10,000. A cycle of violence that seemed unbreakable may be about to break.

What may be making the difference, contrary to Bush Administration fears, is the European Community decision to grant diplomatic recognition to any of the six Yugoslav republics that request it. That decision seems to have been a shock to the Serbian leadership in Belgrade, a forceful and well-calculated signal that a Yugoslavia maintained--or a Serbia expanded--by force will never be welcome in the new Europe.

Serbia deserves praise, all the same, for its utterly unexpected willingness to hand over its Croatian conquests to U.N. peacekeepers. Croatia’s matching willingness not to reoccupy the affected territory, though also commendable, is less surprising.

If the peace holds, two large challenges await. First, borders must be agreed upon, and not just the Serbo-Croatian border. For example, will Kosovo, which is 90% ethnic Albanian, remain a province of Serbia against its will? Second, effective protection must be devised for minority rights within all the eventual Yugoslav republics. That won’t be easy, but there is, in the end, no alternative but war itself.