It Ain’t Over Even When It’s Over : Politics: The Mario Cuomo who declined to run may turn out to be the Ghost of Campaigns Yet to Come.

Mario Cuomo was. . . . But wait. Is it now proper to speak of New York’s governor in the past tense? Is the man to whom so many have looked for nearly a decade as the future hope of the Democratic Party and, perhaps, the nation, suddenly a political has-been?

Most political experts think so. They assert that Cuomo’s announcement that he could not enter the New Hampshire primary because of his obligation to manage his state’s budget crisis was the swan song of his long-running flirtation with the presidency. They may be right. But these are the same political experts who told us less than a year ago that George Bush would be so popular in 1992 that it would be foolish for the Democrats even to nominate an opponent.

It is just possible that the rather pale figure that appeared before the cameras in Albany a few days before Christmas may turn out to be the Ghost of Campaigns Yet to Come. When asked whether this was the end of his presidential aspirations, the enigmatic governor said, “You’ll have to make the analysis.” And, speaking of a late entry into the 1992 campaign, Cuomo said, “I won’t be pursuing that option.” But it may pursue him.

Cuomo’s stepping aside has given the six declared Democratic candidates their chance to be seen and heard. If one of them emerges as a clear front-runner who can excite the public with his message, Cuomo’s national aspirations may be ended.

But while the active candidates are out bashing each other, possibly reducing their own stature in the process, Cuomo will be attending to his responsibilities--and the media will be watching what he does to pull the Empire State out of the fiscal morass that so many states are struggling with this year. His budget will eventually be balanced--in striking contrast to George Bush’s budget. It will be apparent that Cuomo was sincere when he chose public duty over personal ambition. This “politics be damned” attitude has often proved to be the best politics of all.

In the coming months, Cuomo will also be speaking around the country, presenting a vision in a much more inspiring fashion than the active candidates. In his news conference, Cuomo outlined what the Democrats need, and it sounded for all the world like him: “The message must be a responsible, complete, persuasive one. . . . I think that you’re going to have to earn the presidency by coming forth with an economic plan and other things that are real. I don’t believe we’ve done that yet. . . . Whoever does that well should be the candidate. . . . That’s what should come out of the primaries.” Sure. But what if that’s not what comes out of the early primaries?

With Mario Cuomo, it ain’t over when it’s over.

A draft movement of considerable proportions has sprung up in the past week. New York Democrats began planning a favorite-son candidacy, which Cuomo tried to discourage. “He said he couldn’t run right now,” one Democratic leader said, “but there’ll come a point that he’ll be able to run.” Chicago political consultant Philip Krone is organizing a national write-in campaign, and one is under way in New Hampshire. Could it succeed? A poll last week found 37% of New Hampshire Democrats favoring Cuomo as a write-in candidate, dropping Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton to a distant second with 14%.

Four years ago, there was what was generally considered to be a weak field of Democrats, yet no opportunity arose for a late Cuomo candidacy or a draft. But the situation is very different this time. Cuomo has made it plain that he is no longer ambivalent; he wants the presidency and believes that he can do the job better than anyone else who is available. Most important, Jesse Jackson is not a candidate this time. He was a major force in the 1988 primaries, and Democrats who couldn’t abide the thought of Jackson as their nominee were ready to rally around whichever of the other candidates showed the most early strength. Consequently, there weren’t three or more candidates dividing up support late in the primary season, which is a prerequisite for a successful last-minute candidacy or draft.

This year, there is no one that party leaders are likely to want to stop.

There were serious perils for Cuomo in jumping into the race in December. He would have been the front-runner, a position that makes him uncomfortable; he performs better as a challenger. Expectations for him would have been sky high, and New Hampshire voters might have dropped him well below those expectations. Since any sort of late entry would be a long shot, such a course would provide Cuomo with his best opportunity to play the underdog in the Democratic race. As a convention draftee, a fresh candidate for the general election, he might sweep the country off its feet without time for his message or personality to grow stale.

Mario Cuomo is out of the race for the moment, but it would not be wise to count on that being true a few months from now.