NEWS ANALYSIS : Clinton, Tsongas Lead Pack in New Hampshire : Politics: The two have taken different paths to the forefront, but they have a similar approach to the issues.

In the hotly-contested New Hampshire Democratic presidential campaign, the two most conservative candidates in the race, former Massachusetts Sen. Paul E. Tsongas and Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, have made the strongest start.

Their showing is particularly striking because this state has been gripped by a devastating economic slump, a condition in which voters are usually more receptive to liberals offering broad and bold solutions. And the early favorable reception for the more moderate and pragmatic approach of Tsongas and Clinton could foreshadow a trend that would shake the Democratic Party loose from its traditional ideological moorings on the left.

This assessment, based on interviews last week with strategists for all five major Democratic contenders, as well as neutral state party leaders, could change dramatically before the Feb. 18 vote.

The other contenders, Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey and former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr., have potential they might well develop, and only now are most of the candidates beginning to use TV commercials to reach out to the mass of undecided voters, moving beyond the party activists who have made up most of their audience so far.

“This campaign is just getting started,” said Russell Verney, executive director of the New Hampshire Democratic Party. “And all five of the candidates have a shot at winning.”

Although this first-in-the-nation primary is always important, many feel the stakes are higher than ever this year.

One reason is the expected decline in the impact of the Feb. 10 Iowa precinct caucuses, which are not likely to be seriously contested because of Harkin’s favorite-son candidacy.

Another factor is the relatively late start of the 1992 campaign. This has given the candidates less time to raise money and build organizations and has made their long-term prospects more dependent than ever on a strong showing in New Hampshire.

Under these circumstances, the strong first impressions made by Tsongas and Clinton take on added weight. In some ways these two have followed very different paths to the forefront of the campaign. Tsongas, who began as a self-acknowledged underdog, has benefited from the nearness of supporters in neighboring Massachusetts, his decision to enter the race last May well before any of his current rivals and dogged determination--his own and that of his supporters.

“He has a terrific organization,” said Robert Shaine, state party finance chairman. “And those kids who work for him are too young to know the things they can’t do, so they do them anyway.”

By contrast, Clinton entered the race relatively late and was slow to organize in New Hampshire. He has been helped mainly by a wave of favorable publicity hailing his stump appearances around the nation and his victory in last month’s straw poll at a Florida Democratic convention.

This attention also helped boost him into the fund-raising lead nationally and allowed him to expand his organization in New Hampshire while reinforcing his natural base in the South.

“The tide is rising around the country for him, and New Hampshire is part of it,” said Jim Monahan, director of the Kerrey campaign in this state.

But perhaps more important is what both Tsongas and Clinton have in common, chiefly a serious and well-documented problem-solving approach to national issues rather than dependence on traditional liberal formulas expressed in impassioned rhetoric and based on sweeping federal programs.

The contrast between these styles was illustrated here last week at a $10-a-plate spaghetti-and-meatball fund-raising dinner for the local Democratic Party, where agents for the candidates sought to line up support.

Arnie Arneson, a state representative and candidate for governor, set the mood by citing statistical evidence of the state’s bleak economic picture. New Hampshire, Arneson pointed out, is first among all states in home mortgage foreclosures, in the increase in consumer debt delinquency and the rate of increase in its welfare caseload.

Former U.S. Sen. John Durkin, who supports Harkin’s candidacy, responded dramatically to those grim figures in his pitch for Harkin. “If you want someone who is not going to make dramatic changes in the system, then don’t vote for Tom Harkin,” Durkin said. “But if you want someone who is going to rock the boat and not fall out, then Tom Harkin is your man.”

But the Clinton and Tsongas campaigns both seem less willing to rock the boat and more interested in steering a safe course back to economic recovery.

“We know we can solve problems if we have leadership,” Hilary Clinton told the audience as she stood in for her husband, who was campaigning elsewhere. “There is nothing wrong with the country except that we are under-organized and under-led.”

To exemplify the leadership she said Clinton offered, she brandished a red, white and blue booklet labeled “A Plan for America’s Future.” It contains, along with copies of Clinton’s major speeches, 17 pages of proposals that spell out Clinton’s centrist vision of America, including such ideas as creating an investment tax credit for small- and medium-sized companies, limiting the increases in spending on government programs to the rate of increase in personal incomes and requiring welfare recipients to eventually take a job.

“I’m Bill Clinton, and I believe you deserve more than 30-second ads or vague promises,” Clinton says in his new campaign commercial, which went on the air last week. “That’s why I’ve offered a comprehensive plan to get our economy moving again.”

Much the same emphasis on substance, moderation and problem-solving infuses the Tsongas campaign. “Paul thought about the issues and then decided to run for President,” his twin sister, Thaleia Tsongas Schlesinger, told the crowd at the fund-raiser.

“People really want to hear somebody who has got plans,” she later told a reporter. “And they are scared. And they respect somebody who came out early (to run) when nobody gave the Democrats a chance and (who) hung in there.”

Like Clinton, Tsongas, who calls himself a pro-business liberal, has a book full of ideas. Smaller, but thicker, it is called “A Call to Economic Arms” and has become the hallmark of his candidacy.

Among the breaks with liberal orthodoxy, the book contains proposals for research into the development of nuclear energy, cuts in capital gains taxes and less-restrictive antitrust laws to allow U.S. companies to become more competitive abroad.

What is good for business is often good for labor and the rest of the nation too, Tsongas claims.

His new television commercial, which began airing last week, makes that point about the federal bailout of Chrysler Corp., a measure for which Tsongas takes substantial credit.

“He’s no movie star, but Paul Tsongas is something else,” the commercial’s narrator says. “When no one thought Chrysler could survive, it was Paul Tsongas who forced the agreement in Congress that saved 100,000 jobs.”

Some Democrats predict that support for Tsongas will start to fade as the other candidates become better known. But those predictions have been made for months, and polls show that Tsongas remains at the head of the pack, with Clinton running second in some surveys.

Meanwhile, here is a brief look at prospects for the other candidates.

HARKIN: The most outspoken liberal in the field, he has been unable to galvanize broad support. Critics say his message is too grim and that even those who share his beliefs doubt he can win. But even his rivals expect him to gain ground when his first commercials go on the air, probably this week.

KERREY: He has a charismatic style, a compelling personal story as a wounded Vietnam War Medal of Honor winner and the rudiments of a first-rate campaign organization. But he has yet to put them together into a successful candidacy, and some doubt that he will. Others say that, like Harkin, his candidacy can be salvaged by a strong television message.

BROWN: His efforts here were set back when his state coordinator quit last month because he believed the national campaign was not giving him sufficient support for grass-roots organizing. But others are carrying on a volunteer effort. And though the campaign has no money for television commercials at present, it plans to buy time on radio.