Wilder’s Withdrawal Will Split the Black Vote, Observers Predict

Lacking a high-profile black candidate in the upcoming primaries, blacks are unlikely to vote in a bloc for any of the five candidates seeking the Democratic presidential nomination, political observers and activists say.

When Virginia Gov. L. Douglas Wilder dropped out of the presidential race last week, many observers predicted that his supporters would turn to Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, who has been courting blacks.

But a clue about blacks’ behavior in this election may come from Wilder’s campaign workers. Instead of rushing to Clinton en masse, they apparently are waiting to see what the remaining candidates will offer on issues of concern to blacks.

Black campaign workers, who are among the most informed and involved in the political process, will lead the way for black voters, said political analyst Ronald Walters of Howard University in Washington.

Wilder’s campaign manager, Joe Johnson, said it was too early for him and many other campaign officials to decide whom to support.

Walters suggested that the reluctance of Wilder’s campaign workers to quickly redirect their energies toward a new candidate reflects a lack of consensus among blacks over which candidate best represents their concerns. “With Wilder in the race, about 60% of the (black) vote would have gone to him,” he said. “Now that he’s out, I suspect the (black) vote will still locate with one of the other candidates, but we can’t predict who that will be now. More significantly, a good group of black voters will stay home because none of the choices will excite them.”

If his analysis is correct, it also suggests that black voters are no longer voting in blocs organized by strong national political leaders such as the Rev. Jesse Jackson.

Jackson is trying to consolidate black voters into a single bloc under his Rainbow Coalition. Coalition leaders will hold a forum for Democratic aspirants in Washington next Wednesday. Later, Jackson and his followers are expected to back one of the candidates. But many observers suggest the endorsement will carry limited weight.

“As a candidate running for President, Jackson can be an arbiter of black turnout,” said Curtis Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, a Washington-based research group that examines voter participation. “But as a person on the sidelines, he can be only one of many arbiters impacting the black community.”

That view is shared by David Bositis, a senior research analyst with the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a Washington think tank that tracks issues involving black Americans. He questions the ability of any black leader to deliver a majority of the black vote.

“I see black voter participation moving beyond that stage,” he said. “Everyone will be out to cut their own deal without having to wait for a word from Jesse Jackson.”

In the 1984 and 1988 presidential campaigns, most black activists urged black voters to support Jackson. That solidarity stemmed partly from Jackson’s long involvement in issues of concern to black Americans and partly because few other presidential candidates invited blacks to play influential roles in their campaigns.

But even Bert Lance, the former Jimmy Carter Administration official who often advises Jackson on political matters, doubts that Jackson can induce black participation in this year’s Democratic primaries. “My judgment is that blacks will not vote in great numbers,” he said.

But, Bositis said, black political activists with experience in the Jackson and Wilder campaigns are in demand.

“All of the candidates are hiring black staffers hand over fist,” he said. “But the people they hire are black political professionals who . . . want to link their fortunes with the (Democratic) candidate they feel is most likely to be a winner, and there’s no agreement on that right now.”

Jeffrey Cooper, a partner in a Washington computer software firm, said none of the candidates have persuaded him to support their campaign.

“It’s too early for me to decide,” he said. “Nobody is saying anything that piques my interest. I’m waiting to see which of them will address issues tied to economic development and growth in black communities. I want to see their plan for helping black people before I help them.”

Jeffrey Watson, Clinton’s field director in Florida, said he joined the Arkansas governor’s campaign early, passing over Wilder, because he thought Clinton was more likely to win the nomination.

“People in my community want to see a winner as much as anyone,” he said, adding that he worked for Jackson in 1984 and Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr. in 1988, both losers. “I’ve been hit so hard in the last two (presidential) cycles. I want to be with a winner this time around.”