COLUMN LEFT/ RUTH ROSEN : When All Else Fails, Start a War : With Hussein casting a shadow on his reelection campaign, Bush decides to play the military card.

You don’t have to be Oliver Stone to see through George Bush’s cynical military preparations to oust Saddam Hussein. The polls have demonstrated Bush’s political weakness, and the economy, he admits, has gone into free fall. Bush’s star-crossed trip to Japan humiliated the nation as well as himself. The country is demoralized, its people edgy. Meanwhile, George Bush’s greatest glory, the Persian Gulf War, has faded. Saddam Hussein shadows his reelection campaign.

When all else fails, start a war. Absent the “vision thing,” and the political will to face America’s mounting economic and social crises, Bush has apparently decided to take a gamble and play the military card.

Bush’s “covert” action--publicized weeks or months before it begins--is an overt political offensive to redress criticism that he ended the 1991 war prematurely.

The scenario seems carefully scripted. First comes the predictable Saudi “request” to thwart Saddam Hussein. Loyal to its allies, the Bush Administration gallantly complies. The American government then arms Kurds and Shiite Muslims who, after last spring’s betrayal, are now to trust the United States and rise up against Hussein. Naturally, the United States provides air cover, giving Americans another splendid view of military technology while avoiding the politically risky business of deploying ground combat forces. A quick war, perhaps begun in April and over by the summer, diverts public attention from domestic issues, giving Bush the popularity he needs to sail through the November election.

The Administration claims that intelligence reports of growing dissension among Iraq’s ruling families and clans has spurred this new round of military planning. A better justification would be Saddam Hussein’s persistent efforts to skirt U.N. surveillance to build a nuclear bomb. But if nuclear weapons are the threat, then a multinational effort should be made to enforce the non-proliferation treaty. The United States should not act alone.

Perhaps Bush is simply trying to rattle Saddam Hussein’s nerves. A more likely cause, however, is the New Hampshire primary. George Bush is a desperate candidate. As conservative columnist William Safire put it, Bush needs an “April surprise” to help his reelection because October would be just too transparent.

Bush said he would do anything to get reelected and he meant it. Leaking the preparations is a trial balloon, his first major campaign offensive. Even if he decides to ignore the Saudi “initiative” and forgo the glory (and risks) of war, Bush is trying to change the game to one he can win--reminding the nation that he is the commander-in-chief whose shoes cannot possibly be filled.

Democrats who opposed the Gulf War last year, as well as those who oppose an American “covert” operation this spring, will find themselves torn between anti-war opposition and their efforts to speak to America’s domestic problems. It is always easier for an incumbent to set the terms of debate. Recently, Bush lost that initiative. Now, so the scenario goes, he can switch public attention to the Gulf once more.

But Bush’s high-risk gamble may well backfire. A military campaign to remove Saddam Hussein will only underscore the fact that Bush failed to neutralize him in the first place. Bush’s attempt to blame Gen. Colin Powell, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, for ending the war too soon has failed; the public still holds the President responsible. The media and the public, moreover, have had a year to scrutinize the questionable origins and accomplishments of the Persian Gulf War. One year later, more people know how carefully Bush plotted to wage war, how much the government censored the war’s bad news, how many “dumb” weapons didn’t work and how many “smart” missiles missed their targets.

In the midst of the worsening recession, Americans feel isolated by their individual vulnerability to pink slips, mortgage foreclosures and health crises. The Persian Gulf War gave Americans a temporary respite from these domestic problems, a sense of national purpose. But it won’t necessarily work again. You can fool some of the people some of the time, but probably not again the next year.