THE TIMES POLL : Clinton Holds Slim Lead in Fluid N.H. Race

Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton holds a narrow lead in a volatile New Hampshire Democratic primary race, with three-fifths of the likely voters saying they could still change their minds, according to a new Times Poll.

President Bush holds a 61%-to-30% lead over conservative commentator Patrick J. Buchanan in a Republican primary contest where voters appear more settled in their opinions.

Among those likely to vote in the Democratic primary, Clinton leads former Massachusetts Sen. Paul E. Tsongas, 33% to 28%, the poll found.

Each of the other Democratic candidates remains far behind, with Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey attracting support from 9% of likely voters, Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin 8% and former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown 7%. Eleven percent of the likely voters said they were undecided, and 4% said they supported another candidate.

Underscoring the fluidity of the Democratic contest, the race fluctuated somewhat late last week as Clinton was forced to answer a charge, surfacing in a news story, that he may have attempted to escape military service during the Vietnam War. Clinton denied the allegation, but the story dominated press coverage of his campaign in New Hampshire on Thursday and Friday.

Among those likely voters contacted between last Wednesday and last Friday, Clinton and Tsongas ran in a virtual dead heat. But polling at the very end of the week suggested that Clinton may have stabilized his position.

The Times Poll, supervised by John Brennan, surveyed 2,133 registered New Hampshire voters from last Monday through Friday. That included 672 registered Democrats and independents who said they intend to vote in the Democratic primary and 710 registered Republicans and independents who said they intend to vote in the GOP contest.

The margin of error in the samples of likely voters in the Democratic and Republican primaries is plus or minus four percentage points. That means Clinton’s lead in the Democratic race is within the poll’s margin of error.

As candidates in both races frantically crisscross the state in the last days before the pivotal Feb. 18 primary, the poll shows New Hampshire voters to be anxious, uneasy and far more concerned about bread-and-butter economic issues than ideological distinctions between the contenders.

It also shows that the candidates will be making their final appeals in a gale of gloom: Fully three-fourths of New Hampshire voters consider the country “on the wrong track,” while just 17% say it is moving in the right direction.

Also, reflecting New Hampshire’s soured business climate, the state’s voters are significantly more pessimistic about current economic conditions than voters nationwide. More than four-fifths of New Hampshire voters describe their state’s economy as “bad,” compared to 53% who gave the U.S. economy an equally low rating in a national Times poll last week.

In both of the primary races, the level of candidate support does not appear to vary significantly depending on the anticipated turnout--though Brennan noted that Tsongas might be helped somewhat by a low turnout in which fewer younger voters, who now lean toward Clinton, participate.

The Republican contest is the more well defined of the two, with President Bush apparently holding off the challenge from Buchanan, the acerbic conservative commentator. Bush’s lead remained largely unchanged throughout the week.

Moreover, 71% of Bush supporters--as well as 65% of those backing Buchanan--say they are “certain” to vote for the candidate they now support. Among Bush supporters, 28% say they could still change their vote--but so do 32% of Buchanan’s backers.

Despite Buchanan’s sharp conservative profile, the Republican race in New Hampshire is pivoting not on ideology but economic circumstance. Bush leads Buchanan by a uniform 2-to-1 margin among Republicans who consider themselves liberals, moderates and conservatives.

It is among the 63% of the likely GOP voters who consider the country on the wrong track that the source of Buchanan’s support emerges. Among those voters, Bush leads his challenger by just 46% to 40%; the 29% of Republicans who consider the country on the right track favor Bush by a margin of more than 7 to 1.

The Democratic race is the inverse image of the Republican contest. Just 41% of likely Democratic voters said they are “certain” to vote for the candidate they now support, while 58% said they still “might change.”

That proportion basically holds true in terms of each candidate’s support. Of the 33% backing Clinton, for instance, 19% said they might change their mind. Of the 28% supporting Tsongas, 17% said they might change.

But the poll shows that the candidates are not equally positioned to take advantage of the uncertainty in the New Hampshire Democratic electorate. When those likely to vote in the party’s primary were asked to name their second choice if they switch from the candidate they are now supporting, the answers starkly illuminated the hurdles facing Brown, Harkin and Kerrey as they try to climb back into the race.

Clinton and Tsongas lead as the fall-back choice for voters who may reconsider their votes. A third of Clinton supporters call Tsongas their second choice, and a third of Tsongas backers say they like Clinton as their next choice.

Overall, 23% of the likely Democratic voters call Tsongas their second choice, 16% name Clinton, 15% pick Kerrey, 12% choose Harkin and 10% name Brown.

The poll shows that Clinton--who emerged as the New Hampshire front-runner in January before his campaign was buffeted by unsubstantiated adultery allegations--retains a reservoir of goodwill in the state.

Overall, 71% of likely Democratic voters view Clinton favorably, while just 22% hold an unfavorable impression of him--a showing that greatly exceeds his margin in national surveys. His base of New Hampshire support is broad. Clinton runs equally well among self-identified liberals and conservatives, union members and non-union families, Protestants and Catholics, white-collar and blue-collar workers.

But the poll spotlights potential problems. Just 14% of Democratic voters said they are less likely to vote for Clinton because of Gennifer Flowers’ charge that she and the Arkansas governor had a 12-year extramarital affair. Similarly, only 8% of those interviewed in the poll’s last two nights said the draft controversy has soured them on Clinton. But he trails Tsongas among those Democrats who cite character as the principal quality they are seeking in a presidential candidate; the percentage of Clinton supporters who say character is the main reason they are backing him is only half that for Tsongas, Kerrey and Harkin.

Tsongas--who has staked his campaign hopes on a strong New Hampshire showing--has attracted a substantial body of admirers, with 73% of likely Democratic voters viewing him favorably, and just 17% holding an unfavorable opinion. His support, though, is strongest among white-collar and college-educated voters; lower-income and blue-collar voters tend to prefer Clinton by wider margins. Tsongas also runs better with men than women.

Though this staunchly Republican state will be a footnote in the general election contest, its sentiments may illuminate the depth of unease Bush must confront to regain the White House in November. New Hampshire voters disapprove of Bush’s job performance by a 53%-to-45% margin, and two-thirds say they expect little or no help from the economic plan he announced in the State of the Union Address.

Matched against Clinton in a hypothetical general election, Bush narrowly trails, by a 47%-to-44% count. Bush edges Tsongas, though, by an identical 47%-to-44% result.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Los Angeles Times Poll interviewed 2,133 New Hampshire registered voters, by telephone, Feb. 3-7. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list that included all telephone exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that listed as well as non-listed households had a chance to be contacted.

Times Poll: New Hampshire Primary

How the Candidates Are Fairing

With the New Hampshire primary nine days away, a Times Poll found Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton narrowly leading the Democratic presidential race there, while President Bush hold a wide advantage in the Republican contest. The Democratic race remains especially fluid, with large numbers of voters still willing to change their minds.

DEMOCRATS

New Hampshire Democratic Primary Preference:

* If the Democratic primary were being held today, for whom would you vote:

Support Definitely Now, May Total support Change Clinton 14% 19% 33% Tsongas 11% 17% 28% Kerrey 3% 6% 9% Harkin 3% 5% 8% Brown 3% 4% 7% Someone else 3% 1% 4% Don’t know -- 11% 11%

* How certain are you that you’ll support your candidate (Among likely Democratic voters):

Certain: 41%

Might change: 58%

Don’t know: 1%

REPUBLICANS

New Hampshire Republican Primary Preference:

* If the Republican primary were being held today, for whom would you vote:

Support Definitely Now, May Total support Change Bush 44% 17% 61% Buchanan 20% 10% 30% Someone else 1% 1% 2% Don’t know -- 7% 7%

* How certain are you that you’ll support your candidate (Among likely Republican voters):

Certain: 73%

Might change: 26%

Don’t know: 1%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll