Voter Discontent on Economy Is Key, Poll Finds

Economic distress, more than ideological discontent, powered conservative columnist Patrick J. Buchanan’s dramatic showing against President Bush in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, according to a Los Angeles Times exit poll.

But the poll found that the vote may have been more a rejection of Bush than an endorsement of Buchanan: Just 46% of Buchanan voters said they supported him because they liked his policies, with 42% backing him “to send a protest message” and 12% because they viewed him as “the best of a bad lot.”

In the Democratic race, the poll found that the decision pivoted on voters’ assessments of the candidates’ character and experience, with former Massachusetts Sen. Paul E. Tsongas and Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, the top finishers, drawing support in patterns that illuminated their weaknesses as clearly as their strengths.

Reflecting continuing concerns about the allegations surrounding Clinton’s personal life, Tsongas ran up overwhelming margins over the Arkansas governor among the voters who cited “ethics” and “trust” as key factors in their decisions.

But the low-key former senator trailed Clinton by substantial margins among voters who placed great weight on “leadership” and “experience.”

At the same time, the poll found sharp class distinctions in the Democratic results that could presage a fundamental divide in the coming primaries, with Tsongas running best among upper-income and well-educated voters and Clinton attracting more blue-collar and working-class support.

Overall, the poll found, Tsongas ran better among independents than self-identified Democrats, although he carried both groups.

The Times Poll, supervised by John Brennan, interviewed 6,000 voters as they left 60 representative polling places across the state. It has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

The poll found that Bush’s problems had less to do with personal characteristics than a sense that he had failed to respond to enormous economic distress. Voters who cited experience, ethics, leadership and trust as major factors in their decision all preferred Bush, often by overwhelming margins.

But Buchanan led Bush among voters who were looking for a candidate who “cares about people like me” or “stands up for his convictions.” And he humbled the President among the substantial portion of Republican voters unhappy with the nation’s direction.

The fundamental divide in the Republican race was between voters who believe the country is moving in the right direction and those who fear it is careening down the wrong track. Among those who believe the country’s basic direction is sound--about 30% of the Republican electorate--Bush trounced Buchanan by a margin of more than 11 to 1.

But the 70% of Republicans who believe the nation is moving in the wrong direction preferred Buchanan by a margin of about 20 points.

Likewise, Bush defeated Buchanan by more than 2 to 1 among the one-sixth of Republican voters who say their personal finances have improved over the past four years. But the challenger took three-fifths of those voters who say they are worse off than four years ago--fully 40% of the electorate. Bush won a large margin among voters who consider their economic condition unchanged since 1988.

Those divisons were far more telling than the ideological contrasts. Although Bush did best among Republicans who identified themselves as moderates, he also narrowly carried self-identified conservatives.

But corrosive economic discontent allowed Buchanan to make major inroads among demographic groups that have been the backbone of the Republican presidential majority for the past generation.

Most strikingly, Buchanan ran virtually evenly with Bush among men--although he lagged among women. Buchanan ran strongest among blue-collar voters, but also held his ground with white-collar and middle-income voters. The President ran most strongly among upper-income voters, the young and those over 65.

Bush’s great strength here was foreign affairs. Over 30% of the electorate cited his leadership in the Persian Gulf War as a major factor in their decision; they endorsed Bush by a margin of over 18 to 1.

But that advantage was largely offset by Bush’s resounding repudiation among the one-fourth of the electorate who cited as a key factor the President’s reversal of his 1988 promise not to raise taxes. Buchanan won over 9 in 10 of those voters.

And Bush’s attempts to portray Buchanan as a isolationist apparently had little effect. Nearly 3 in 5 Republican voters said the United States was “overextended” in world affairs; they gave Buchanan a 15-point advantage over the President.

Many of these sentiments were apparent in interviews with voters conducted separately from the exit poll by Times reporters Tuesday. At the Matthew Thornton School in Londonderry, a community just south of Manchester, voters interviewed over the lunch hour split almost evenly between Bush and his challenger.

Mark Brien said he voted for Buchanan because: “I like his views on foreign policy--spend more of our money here where we need it.” But Jim Elsmore said he did not believe Buchanan had the experience for the nation’s top job: “I got more credentials than he does,” he said. “I sat on the school board.”

If the results alone were not enough, the poll is bound to increase concerns among Republican professionals about the quality of Bush’s campaign.

Bush actually lost ground during the time he spent campaigning here: Among the one-third of Republican primary voters who made up their minds before January, Bush defeated Buchanan by more than 3 to 1.

But Buchanan beat Bush among voters who made their decision after the campaign was seriously joined in January. And those whose decisions came while the President campaigned heavily in the state over the past week narrowly leaned toward Buchanan.

As in the Republican race, ideology played only a moderate role in the Democratic outcome. Tsongas achieved a modest eight-point margin above Clinton among liberals and a 10-point margin among moderates; Clinton ran evenly with Tsongas among the small share of voters who called themselves conservatives.

Tsongas also posted double-digit leads over Clinton among voters who were looking for a candidate with “new ideas” or one who best represented “party ideals.”

More dramatic were divisions of class, income and education--reflecting the distinct ideological profiles of the two leading contenders. Tsongas, who has opposed a middle-class tax cut and described his views on social issues as “extremely liberal,” ran most strongly among upper-income and well-educated voters.

Tsongas amassed margins of 15 points or greater among both college graduates and those who attended graduate school, he led Clinton by 2 to 1 among white-collar voters and he ran up a 20-point margin among voters earning above $60,000 annually.

Almost two-thirds of Tsongas voters had a college degree or graduate school education--far more than the overall electorate; likewise, nearly 3 in 5 Tsongas voters earned at least $40,000.

But Tsongas trailed Clinton--whose campaign themes resonate with more cultural and economic populism--among blue-collar workers, voters with a high- school education or less and families earning less than $20,000 annually.

The other Democrats could not find more than a niche. Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, who had staked his hopes on union members and blue-collar voters, ran behind Tsongas and Clinton with both groups.

Former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr. showed strength among voters under 24, but his support fell off substantially among older voters. Brown also ran well among the one-sixth of Democratic voters concerned about the environment, although Tsongas won that group despite criticism of his support for nuclear power.

Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey did not manage to counter his disappointing showing by capturing support among any significant demographic group. Only among the one-third of the electorate that cited health care as a principal concern did he come close to Clinton or Tsongas.

No gender gap appeared in the Democratic race: Tsongas’ margin over Clinton was virtually the same among women as men.

Only 11% of Democratic primary voters said that “questions about Clinton’s past” were a major factor in their decision. Forty percent of those voters backed Tsongas; 18% of them still voted for Clinton.

Concerns about Clinton were evident in voter interviews conducted Tuesday separately from the exit poll at the Bakersville School in Manchester.

Al Bouressa voted for Tsongas because: “He’s a more conservative Democrat--he’s not as liberal as Kerrey or Harkin. I don’t like the business Clinton tried to pull with the draft.”

On the other hand, the controversy over whether Clinton attempted to dodge the draft during the Vietnam War attracted to him Gail Dupuis, who had intended to support Harkin. “As far as I’m concerned, Clinton followed his beliefs and that’s what I look for in a candidate,” she said.

In these conversations, Tsongas’ strength often appeared derived from an image that sharply contrasted with his chief rival. Judith Jorgensen said she backed Tsongas largely because she considered him “a dedicated family man.”

And Linda Dallaire said that while she didn’t believe she could “trust” Clinton, she felt Tsongas--by announcing his candidacy last spring when Bush still looked unbeatable--had demonstrated he was motivated by more than ambition.

Overall, 8 in 10 Democrats said they voted for their candidate because they liked him and his policies; among Republicans the figure was 6 in 10.

Times assistant poll director Susan Pinkus contributed to this story.

THE TIMES POLL / The Message Behind the Votes

Why did New Hampshire residents vote the way they did? This exit poll by The Times provides a glimpse at voter motivations. It is based on interviews with 6,000 Democratic and Republican primary voters at 60 representative polling places across the state. The numbers given are percentages.

Democratic GOP Primary Primary Tsongas Clinton Bush Buchanan Voters Voters Voters Voters WHY DID YOU SUPPORT YOUR CANDIDATE? Like him, his policies 86 86 69 46 The best of a bad lot 9 11 30 12 To send a protest message 5 3 1 42

Democratic Republican Primary Primary Voters Voters WHAT DID YOU MOST LIKE ABOUT YOUR CANDIDATE? Cares about people like me 24 10 Experience 17 38 Stands up for convictions 24 23 Represents the party 10 12 Has new ideas 16 7 No doubts about his ethics 12 11 Strong leader 20 20 Can win in November 7 7 Can bring change 22 13 Trust him more than others 15 16 None of the above 3 7 WOULD YOU BE MORE INCLINED TO BACK A DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE WHO: Tries to appeal to all kinds of voters 12 5 Holds traditional Democratic views 32 7 It would depend on candidate 49 54 I wouldn’t consider either 7 34 IF DEFENSE SPENDING WERE CUT, WHAT SHOULD THE GOVERNMENT DO WITH THE MONEY? Reduce the deficit 36 46 Increase domestic spending 46 23 Reduce taxes for average Americans 14 20 Cutting defense is a bad idea 4 11 HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE AMERICA’S ROLE IN WORLD AFFAIRS? Overextended 71 57 Adequate 21 39 Should do more 8 4 WHAT ISSUES WERE MORE IMPORTANT TO YOU IN DECIDING HOW TO VOTE? Education 25 16 Jobs/The economy 77 73 Environment 17 7 Taxes 12 25 Foreign trade 4 8 Health care 34 17 Poverty 3 2 Crime/Drugs 1 4 Abortion 6 7 Foreign affairs 2 12 None of the above 2 5 BUSH JOB APPROVAL RATING Approve 7 52 Disapprove 93 48 IF BUSH RUNS IN NOVEMBER, HOW WILL YOU VOTE? Definitely Bush 3 41 Probably Bush 5 35 Probably Democrat 25 15 Definitely Democrat 67 9 WHICH PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES WILL YOU NOT SUPPORT? Brown 24 46 Buchanan 55 33 Bush 61 15 Clinton 21 45 Kerrey 13 32 Harkin 18 42 Tsongas 10 28 Ruling no one out 16 20 WHICH THINGS INFLUENCED YOUR VOTE? Candidate debates 40 9 Personal meeting with candidate 11 6 Campaign advertisements 15 9 Democratic issues: Tsongas’ health status 4 2 Questions about Clinton’s past 11 4 Republican issues: Statements by Quayle 3 6 The Manchester Union Leader 3 7 Charges that Buchanan is extremist 3 9 Bush’s leadership in Gulf War 4 32 Bush’s flip-flop on taxes 18 25

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% because results for some issues or voter groups are not displayed.