Aristide Becoming Irrelevant : Haiti: Insiders say the ousted president ‘is no longer part of the equation’ after reneging on weekend agreement.

Ousted President Jean-Bertrand Aristide has undercut his importance here by refusing to accept a continued role for the current military leadership, his foes and some supporters say.

Under an agreement signed with his opposition over the weekend in Washington, it was implied that--in exchange for his ultimate restoration as president--Aristide would accept Lt. Gen. Raoul Cedras as Haiti’s military commander.

The exiled president since has said, however, that Cedras should be treated as a common criminal and removed from power for his part in the Sept. 30 coup. Otherwise, Aristide indicated, the agreement has no standing and he will refuse to accept the legitimacy of any new government.

But parliamentary leaders who signed the pact, as well as political opponents and such erstwhile Aristide supporters as the United States, say the accord stands--as signed--and the crisis that began with the overthrow of Haiti’s first democratically elected leader in recent memory is nearly over.

“What links us to Aristide is the agreement he signed in Washington, not what he says,” Rene Theodore said. Theodore is an Aristide opponent who was named in the agreement as the prime minister of a new government to replace the puppet regime Cedras installed in the wake of the coup.

“Aristide is no longer part of the equation,” a diplomat here said. “By signing the agreement, which, you recall, sets no dates or conditions for his return, and then reneging on the Cedras part, he (Aristide) has allowed the other side to declare democracy is being restored without his further participation.

“He can come back, but on the terms of a man he destroyed in a democratic election,” the diplomat said, referring to the presidential election in which Aristide received 67% of the vote and Theodore just 3%. If Aristide had not called for Cedras’ removal, the diplomat said, “he could have come back and at least been a presence. . . . But now, he’s out of the picture.”

In other words, said Eudrice Raymond, a Haitian senator who supported Aristide’s 1989 election, Aristide “can return when he wants, but only under the agreement, and that includes keeping Cedras as commander.”

The accord provides amnesty for those involved in the coup and calls for respecting “all decisions of Parliament,” including its ratification of Cedras as army commander.

The agreement, as interpreted by the Bush Administration and Aristide’s foes, “means that the same old gang has gotten what it wants--I mean the effective end of Aristide and power in the hands of the elite, the army and U.S. business interests,” said another diplomat who backs Aristide and is a critic of U.S. policy here.

The diplomat cited clauses in the accord giving Theodore the power to decide under what conditions Aristide may return as prime examples of the shackles now gripping the exiled leader. “I don’t know why he signed the agreement and then backed away, but he has almost no leverage, since the (Organization of American States) and the Americans are going to remove the embargo as soon as possible,” the diplomat predicted.

His analysis includes his “guess” that Aristide had thought the accord’s ambiguities--the agreement, for instance, never mentions Cedras--would allow him to say that he had been recognized by his opponents as the legitimate president without accepting Cedras’ continued role. “If so,” the diplomat said, “he didn’t realize that none of the other players want him back. Aristide shot himself in the foot when he went on ‘Nightline’ (the ABC television show) and said the general had to be removed.”

In an interview with two U.S. reporters, Theodore said the transition to Aristide “will be very difficult,” adding that he has no timetable in mind.

He said he sees Aristide’s anti-Cedras position as an attempt to satisfy the demands of his supporters in Haiti. “He has problems inside Lavlas,” Theodore said, referring to the populist movement Aristide created. “He has to play to the extremists.”

In the meantime, Theodore said that once his government is in place, he will determine its policies, subject only to the assembly and not Aristide’s wishes.

As a sign that Aristide has been made all but irrelevant, U.S. Ambassador Alvin Adams returned here Wednesday. He had been withdrawn last month to protest the attack by the military-controlled police on Theodore, which resulted in the killing of the prime minister-designate’s bodyguard.

A U.S. official in Washington said that Adams’ return is meant to show U.S. support for Theodore and to serve as an indication that the Bush Administration wants to end the crisis quickly, even if Aristide remains in exile. “Of course we still want Aristide to return,” the official said. “But the agreement provides for an immediate end to the embargo and all other punishment. It doesn’t make us wait for Aristide to go back.”

Adams’ return follows the U.S. relaxation of the crushing economic embargo and statements by U.S. officials this week that they will restore a multimillion-dollar aid program for Haiti and totally end the boycott as soon as the country’s National Assembly ratifies the Washington agreement.

Although the assembly, particularly the Senate, has shied away from ratifying previous agreements naming Theodore as prime minister, anti-Aristide parliamentary leaders now express confidence that this accord will pass, perhaps this week. “It’s a fine chance for our country to find its way out of this crisis,” said Duly Brutus, a member of the Parliament’s Chamber of Deputies and the coalition that supported Aristide before his overthrow.

Other analysts say that even if Aristide returns, the accord essentially shears him of any real power. For instance, while Aristide would have the right to be consulted on the naming of ministers and other government officials, final say would rest with the prime minister.

And while the accord calls for the separation of the army from the police and the “professionalization” of the military, it does not define that term, nor limit the army’s right to name its own officers, nor spell out the army’s future role in the country.

In the meantime, in Washington the House neared a vote on a bill to block the forced return of Haitians who fled their country on small boats but were picked up by the U.S. Coast Guard and taken to the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo, Cuba. Advocates of the measure said it would protect pro-Aristide Haitians who were in jeopardy from the anti-Aristide military units that have been accused of spreading terror in the country.

A vote on the bill is due today.

Times staff writers Norman Kempster and William J. Eaton in Washington contributed to this report.