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Retailers’ Sales Advance for the Second Month . . . : * Economy: The February gains are the latest figures pointing toward a possible budding recovery. However, sales are lagging in California.

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TIMES STAFF WRITER

Many of the nation’s largest retailers Thursday reported that sales strengthened in February for the second straight month, offering yet another shred of evidence that consumers may be ready to help lead the country out of the recession.

Although rising department store sales and other indicators--including a drop in mortgage delinquencies, a slight rise in auto sales last month and a small increase in factory orders in January--point toward a possible budding economic recovery, consumers are still sending some decidedly mixed signals about how they view the nation’s economy.

According to two recent consumer confidence surveys, Americans still feel pessimistic about the nation’s economic outlook, leading some economists to predict that the current uptick in consumer spending may not gain momentum until unemployment fears cease to be a major issue.

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“We are seeing some signs of stirring in the economy, but we are missing a key ingredient,” said Robert Giordano, director of economic research at Goldman Sachs in New York. “We’ve never had a genuine recovery without a decided rise in consumer confidence, and I don’t think we’re going to see that until there is a steady increase in the number of jobs created.”

Gary Schlossberg, chief economist at Wells Fargo Bank in San Francisco, said confusing data is to be expected when the economy is still in flux. “There’s a mixed bag of data any time you’re on the cusp of change,” Schlossberg said. “It won’t be until late spring or summer that we can know for sure whether the economy is on a clear upward trend.”

Other economists discount the importance of consumer confidence surveys, noting that consumers are perfectly capable both of spending money and worrying about their economic futures.

“Consumers certainly have concerns about the economy as a whole,” said Lynn Reaser, chief economist for First Interstate Bancorp. “But when they act, they do it on the basis of their own circumstances. I’m more inclined to believe what they do more than what they say.”

And, according to the sales figures released by many of the nation’s largest department store chains Thursday, consumers have started to shop again.

“You have to reward yourself when you work. It gives you a better attitude. Otherwise it shows, and you’ll lose your job,” said Sonia Silva, a 25, a Hollywood grocery store manager who was shopping in the Glendale Galleria on Thursday to celebrate a recent promotion.

However, retailers noted that shoppers in California, where the recession hit later and more deeply than in other parts of the country, are lagging their counterparts across the nation. And sales in the state remain sluggish.

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But Brian Richardson, a 26-year-old clerk in the luggage department of the Broadway store in the Glendale Galleria, believes that he’s seeing a turnaround--even here.

“They’ve started spending again,” he said Thursday. “Right after the holidays and up to mid-February it was bad, but now people are back to spending. I think a lot of people aren’t as afraid of the word recession anymore.”

Wal-Mart said its same-store sales (sales at stores open at least one year) shot up 20% in February, while overall sales rose 34%. Sears, Roebuck & Co. said its same-store sales rose 8.9%, while overall sales were up 3.3%. J. C. Penney Co. reported an 8.6% same-store gain and a 9% rise overall. And Dayton Hudson said its same-store sales rose 6%, and overall business improved 12.9%.

Federated Department Stores Inc., making its first monthly sales report since emerging from bankruptcy court protection in February, said its same-store sales jumped 10.2%, while overall sales rose 3.8%. Apparel retailer Gap Inc., which turned in a strong performance throughout the recession, said its same-store sales were up 7% as overall sales rose 23%. Kmart Corp. said its same-store sales rose 4.3%, while overall business picked up 9.9%.

Still, many economists and analysts discounted the importance of the February retail sales figures released Thursday for several reasons. Most noted that the increases were based on a comparison to February, 1991, when many Americans were glued to their television sets watching the Persian Gulf War instead of shopping.

Others cautioned that the department store sales data released Thursday represent only 10% to 15% of the overall consumer spending in the United States and may not be an accurate indication of total consumer spending patterns.

Total consumer spending results for February will be released next Thursday by the Commerce Department, whose data includes auto, supermarket and restaurant sales as well as store sales.

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Still other analysts and several retailers noted that February traditionally has the lowest sales levels of the year and is the least important month for spotting trends. “One month does not a trend make,” cautioned Kenneth Macke, chairman of Dayton Hudson Corp., parent of Mervyn’s and Target stores.

Many retailers, while buoyed by sales results in January and February, have repeatedly said they are waiting for similar results in March or April before breathing a sigh of relief. The bulk of spring shopping is expected to take place in April, since Easter arrives later this year than in 1991.

Even if spring apparel and household sales remain strong, some economists said the economy can’t be considered healthy until consumers increase their purchases of new cars and other big-ticket items and until consumer spending results in the creation of new jobs.

“There have been signs of life in the economy of late,” said Sandra Shaber of the Futures Group, a Washington research firm. “But so far the signs are not generating new jobs or boosting consumers’ incomes.”

Some consumers have figured that out already. “I think recovery will be a long-term thing,” said Karla Tingley of Arcadia, who was shopping Thursday in San Anita Fashion Park. “It’s not going to happen overnight.”

Times staff writer Cristine Gonzalez contributed to this story.

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