ELECTIONS / 36TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT : Democrats Insist They Can Win Despite GOP Voter Edge

Is the race for the South Bay’s 36th Congressional District an exclusively Republican affair?

Citing their voter registration edge, Republicans argue that it is. But Democrats predict that they can pull off a surprise win in the newly created district, which runs from San Pedro to Venice, embracing Torrance, the Palos Verdes Peninsula and the beach cities.

Fueling their optimism are predictions of a bruising GOP primary in the 36th District and polls that show voter disenchantment with the Bush Administration--a key sign of Republican vulnerability, they believe.

“In the past we were sacrificial lambs in a district like this,” said Stephen Beale, a Democratic Party organizer in Torrance. “This year things are different.”

Republicans have been supremely confident that they will win the 36th District since it was created this year as part of reapportionment, the once-a-decade redrawing of legislative district boundaries.

The new turf, which also takes in Lawndale, Westchester and Marina del Rey, has a voter registration split of 46% Republican and 42% Democratic.

Though small on paper, such a margin can be wide in practice because Republicans are more likely than Democrats to vote and, once at the polls, to support their party’s candidate, analysts in both parties agree.

Republican strategists say that, in the 36th District, the registration advantage is more than enough to ensure victory for the GOP in the fall. Said Republican political consultant Allan Hoffenblum: “No Democrat is going to carry that congressional district.”

Democrats disagree.

For one, they say, the GOP could easily wind up with a badly bruised and cash-short nominee after the June 2 primary, which promises to be tough and expensive. Many of those running appear likely to wage potent campaigns, among them William Beverly, son of state Sen. Robert G. Beverly (R-Manhattan Beach), Los Angeles City Councilwoman Joan Milke Flores and Maureen Reagan, daughter of former President Ronald Reagan.

And Democrats say at least one of their candidates looks capable of mounting the intense districtwide effort it will take to beat a Republican--attorney Jane Harman, a former congressional and Carter White House aide.

According to the Federal Election Commission, Harman had raised $189,939 for her congressional bid as of Dec. 31, the last date for which figures are available. None of the other candidates--Republican or Democrat--had assembled such a large war chest so early.

Harman predicts that she will be able to capture her party’s nomination using fewer campaign resources than the winner of the intensely competitive Republican race.

“I’m going to spend the time (before the primary) building a big base and raising a lot of money,” said Harman, whose husband, Sidney Harman, is chairman of Harman International Industries, a producer of audio and video equipment. “I expect to be in good shape for the general election.”

Other Democratic candidates in the 36th District, while admitting they trail Harman in fund raising now, express confidence that they can still engineer equally effective campaigns.

For instance, Ada Unruh, daughter-in-law of the late state Treasurer Jesse Unruh, said a run she made in 1988 in the 42nd Congressional District, while unsuccessful, nevertheless gave her visibility in the South Bay that will help her in this year’s race.

The 42nd, which includes the Palos Verdes Peninsula, Torrance, Lomita, a strip of Long Beach and part of Orange County, is being carved up in the reapportionment process. Unruh placed second in the district’s Democratic primary to Guy Kimbrough, who was later defeated by Republican Dana Rohrabacher in the general election.

“I have name identification by virtue of having run before, and of course the family name helps,” said Unruh, whose husband, Bruce, is Jesse Unruh’s son.

Democrats say that whoever wins their party’s nomination will have an easy time attracting Republican support in the general election, citing the country’s economic trouble and recent polls showing many voters questioning the Bush Administration’s ability to resolve it.

“We’re at a critical moment in the history of this country, and a lot of people are disturbed,” said candidate Gregory Stock, an author and visiting scholar at UCLA. “People would really like to see change.”

Hoffenblum, the Republican political consultant, rejects that analysis, saying a majority of 36th District voters will find the candidate they want in the Republican Party. Said Hoffenblum: “I find it difficult to imagine how a Democrat will win that seat.”