Touting the Odds on the Senate Races

Political reporters often are criticized for covering campaigns like a horse race. That’s a cheap shot, totally unfair to the equestrian press. Horse-racing writers don’t launder personal opinions with quotes from unnamed observers. They don’t rely on polls. They simply tell you straightaway what horse they believe will win, and why.

There is an admirable honesty to this approach, and I’m willing to give it a shot and to handicap the race for California’s two U.S. Senate seats.

It’s a complicated affair, this dual heat. Two sets of primaries will be held June 2. One will select finalists for a standard six-year term, replacing Alan Cranston. The other will pick the final field for the so-called short seat, the last two years of a term begun by Pete Wilson.

And now, as they say at the track, away they go. . . .

THE SIX-YEAR SEAT--Republicans

* Sonny Bono. The call went out for a businessman with high name recognition who could run as a political outsider. How Sonny Bono came to answer Peter Ueberroth’s telephone is a mystery. His odds in the primary: 20-1.

* Tom Campbell. A Stanford economist-turned-congressman, this gray-flanneled yuppie caters to the Ed Zschau constituency of computer moguls. He’s raised millions, but is an inexperienced campaigner and derided by GOP conservatives as a Democrat in disguise. 3-1.

* Bruce Herschensohn. Runner-up to Zschau, he lives on the far political right, still advocating a defense buildup. As an L.A. television commentator, Herschensohn said wild things that could bite him. He’d be smart to hang back in Campbell’s tail stream and avoid front-runner scrutiny. 5-2.

THE SIX-YEAR SEAT--Democrats

* Barbara Boxer. The congresswoman from Marin exposed the Pentagon’s $7,000 airplane toilet and promoted politically correct tuna cans. A fiery liberal who is popular up north, she wouldn’t be the first San Francisco politician to fall off the radar in a statewide race. 4-1.

* Mel Levine. He’s collected more than $4 million. He’ll need it. A relative unknown, Levine must define himself for voters before his opponents do. In a way, Levine vs. Boxer will test who runs L.A.--the old Berman-Waxman machine supporting Levine, or the fledgling constituencies that propelled the likes of Gloria Molina and appear ready to embrace Boxer. 4-1.

* Leo McCarthy. In the haberdashery of politics, he is a short-sleeved shirt--reasonable, comfortable, anything but hip. In a era of anti-insider politics, he’s fortunate to be the non-Washingtonian in the race. The first instinct is to write off this old war horse. He needs to junk his three-point programs, find a hot issue and go native. 7-2.

THE TWO-YEAR SEAT--Democrats

* Gray Davis. The state controller, whatever that is, Davis is a master campaigner who will raise buckets of money for attack television. Jerry Brown’s triumphal return from the weird creates an interesting dilemma for Davis. Though they appear to employ the same barber, Davis spent several years trying to distance himself from his former boss. That might not play well with die-hard Brownies. 5-2

* Dianne Feinstein. It’s her race to lose, but. . . . In her last primary, DiFi sneaked up on John Van de Kamp. Davis won’t be so dumb. Never a workaholic--she became the first candidate in history to be fired by her consultant, who branded her “lazy”--Feinstein was devastated by her loss to Wilson and could have trouble firing up this time. 2-1.

* Joseph Alioto. The son of the former San Francisco mayor. 100-1.

THE TWO-YEAR SEAT--Republicans

* Bill Dannemeyer. Where does Orange County find these guys? He might be the only California Republican conservative enough to suit Pat Buchanan. 25-1.

John Seymour. The “incumbent” has done the job back in Washington: He’s kept the seat warm. Since the U.S. Senate remains the ATM of American politics, cranking out campaign cash for even its most obscure members, Seymour should waltz in the primary. And then, like the ad says, he’s going back to Disneyland. 3-2.

Bill Allen. He models himself after Clarence Thomas, and if there’s an Anita Hill one-liner in that, I’m not touching it. 50-1.

So how does it end up? Easy. Feinstein, angered by Davis, overcomes her malaise, rallies to victory and then clobbers Seymour. Herschensohn is endorsed late by both Sonny and Cher and sneaks by Campbell, who never can explain why he once supported McGovern. Boxer and Levine gobble each other up, but revitalize the California economy in the process, and McCarthy plods to victory, beating Herschensohn in the general.

Now remember: All bets are final.