Midwest Showdown

Tuesday’s presidential primaries in Illinois and Michigan loom as crucial contests that could sharply define the direction of the races in both parties. Map shows results of previous Democratic contests.

Illinois

Democrats: Polls taken late last week showed Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton with a slim lead over former Massachusetts Sen. Paul E. Tsongas, while former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr. was a distant third. The figures are potentially good news for Tsongas, who has had virtually no presence in the state. But to score a much-needed win, he needs a larger share of the blue-collar and urban-ethnic vote than he has snared elsewhere. Clinton is well-organized in the state and has targeted it as the place to show he has more than Southern appeal.

Republicans: President Bush is looking to score a big win on the home turf of White House Chief of Staff Samuel K. Skinner, and he appears in good shape to do so. David Duke is not on the ballot, and Patrick J. Buchanan’s style of arch-conservatism traditionally has not played well in a state where Republican voters tend to back moderates.

* Population: 11,430,602 White: 78% Black: 15% Other: 8% * Latino population, at 8%, is counted under black or white Education: High school graduates: 77.2% College graduates: 21.1% Unemployment: Feb. 1988: 7.6% / National: 5.7% Feb. 1992: 8.5% / National: 7.3%

Michigan

Democrats: Neither Clinton nor Tsongas stirs much enthusiasm within an electorate dominated by union members because neither stresses a pro-labor agenda. Brown, who donned a United Auto Workers jacket as he arrived Tuesday, is touting his labor credentials and offering himself as a clear alternative to the other candidates. A Clinton win here and in Illinois would make him the prohibitive favorite for the party’s nomination.

Republicans: Buchanan has promised an all-out effort to score a breakthrough win against Bush. He is hoping his “America first” message will resonate in a state where the economy has been battered by foreign competition. But a poor Buchanan showing will intensify the drumbeat within the GOP for him to end his campaign. Polls show Duke with minuscule support.

* Population: 9,295,297 White: 83% Black: 14% Other: 3% * Latino origin less than 1% Education: High school graduates: 77.0% College graduates: 17.3% Unemployment: Feb. 1988: 8.4% / National: 5.7% Feb. 1992: 9.0% / National: 7.3%

The Delegate Tally to Date

Democrats: Bill Clinton: 707 Paul E. Tsongas: 349 Jerry Brown: 81 Uncommitted: 301 Needed to nominate: 2,145

Republicans Bush: 560 Buchanan: 46 Uncommitted: 6 Needed to nominate: 1,105

Where They Won*

Bush has won all GOP contests to date.

Bill Clinton: Georgia, South Carolina, Wyoming, Florida, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana,l Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Hawaii.

Paul E. Tsongas: New Hampshire, Maryland, Utah, Washington, Arizona, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware.

Jerry Brown: Maine, Colorado, Neveda.

Tom Harkin: Iowa, Minnesota, Idaho.

Bob Kerry: South Dakota.

* Maine, Minnesota and Washington winner based on incomplete results.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Labor Department