NEWS ANALYSIS : Primaries Leave Deep Misgivings Over Fall Race

Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton’s successes in Tuesday’s primaries probably settle whatever doubts may have existed about him becoming the Democratic presidential nominee, but leave unresolved deep misgivings about his chances of toppling President Bush this fall.

Clinton won his bitter two-week campaign in New York against former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr. and the shadow candidacy of former Massachusetts Sen. Paul E. Tsongas. But by focusing attention on such episodes from Clinton’ past as his use of marijuana and his Vietnam War draft status, the struggle also served to underline Clinton’s vulnerabilities.

Republicans sound as if they can hardly wait for the general election.

“I think he (Clinton) has as many problems personally as we have with the economy,” said Fred Steeper, Bush’s campaign pollster. Steeper noted that recent polls in a number of states, including Wisconsin, Minnesota and Ohio, have put Bush ahead of Clinton in theoretical matchups.

The shaky economy and intense anti-incumbent feeling prevalent in the land are major worries for Republicans, Steeper said. But, he added: “This would be more of a serious threat if the Democrats were to nominate someone who was less embroiled in personal controversies.”

Striking evidence of misgivings about Clinton even among the Democratic rank-and-file was provided by the second-place showing in New York by Tsongas, who was backed only by volunteer campaign workers and a budget of less than $100,000.

Some Clinton supporters here saw hope in the New York battle. “New York was a trial by fire,” says Ester Fuchs, Barnard College political scientist. “Running that gantlet prepares him for whatever the Republicans can throw at him.”

But other Democrats took a dimmer view. They pointed to exit poll results that showed only 35% of the primary voters agree with the statement that Clinton has the honesty and integrity to be President while 35% disagreed and 30% were not sure.

And only 53% of those who voted for Brown and 49% of those who backed Tsongas were prepared to say that they would probably vote for Clinton against Bush in the fall, according to the Los Angeles Times exit poll.

The low voter turnout that has been a hallmark of Clinton’s march to the nomination was replicated in New York. Just under 1 million Democrats cast ballots Tuesday, down more than 500,000 from 1988.

“In terms of the fall, he is a dead stone loser,” says Irwin (Tubby) Harrison, who polled for Tsongas in 1992 and Michael S. Dukakis in 1988.

Against this grim background, the Clinton forces could draw some comfort from the fact that although Clinton fell well short of getting a majority of the vote, the showing may be strong enough to dissuade Tsongas from re-entering the contest.

Tsongas vowed to make up his mind by Thursday or Friday. “He doesn’t want to look like a spoiler,” said Lee Gounardes, manager of the draft Tsongas drive in New York.

As for Brown, at least one of his aides planned to recommend that he drop out of the race if Tsongas declined to resume his candidacy on the theory that Clinton’s delegate count advantage--more than twice Tsongas’ total and four times Brown’s--was too great to overcome.

But Brown had said before the votes were cast here that he would carry on his fight to California, which holds its primary on June 2, along with Ohio and New Jersey.

Until Thursday at least it is technically possible for a new candidate to file for the New Jersey primary, which will award 105 delegates.

It appeared likely that speculation about the entry of other, unnamed candidates would persist until the roll call of the states begins at the Democratic convention in July.

Nathan Landow, Maryland Democratic chairman and prominent Democratic fund-raiser, has called a meeting of IMPAC, a group of other fund-raisers, for later this month in Washington, stirring questions over whether he planned to encourage another candidate to enter the race.

But Landow rejected that notion. “IMPAC is going to focus on the general election and see what we can do to help our party chairman (Ronald H. Brown) and the nominee.”

Other party leaders rejected talk of a new candidate as unrealistic. “There’s nothing they can do,” said San Francisco fund-raiser Duane Garrett. “It’s too late. The time for doing something has long since passed.”

“There is no alternative,” Democratic consultant Mark Siegel said. “The battle will continue and the sniping and the nibbling at Clinton will continue. Meanwhile, the party regulars and the ‘super delegates’ (uncommitted party and elected officials) will rally around Clinton.”

That was just what Clinton and his advisers were counting on Tuesday night as they surveyed the post-New York battleground with a mixture of exhaustion and relief. They were leaving a state where they and their candidate had undergone a daily battering from the tabloid press, television interviewers and the impassioned rhetoric from Brown.

The campaign now moves to territory that will be more naturally favorable to Clinton--states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Alabama and his home state of Arkansas. “We now move to a bunch of states where Clinton’s economic message will be attractive,” deputy campaign manager George Stephanopoulos said.

Another comforting factor in Pennsylvania, where the next big state primary will be held April 28, is that Clinton’s senior consultant James Carville is well connected there because of his past service as campaign manager for Democratic Gov. Robert P. Casey and newly elected Democratic Sen. Harris Wofford.

If voters nationwide begin to see Clinton in a series of states where he is well-received and winning large victories, they could begin to see him in a more favorable light, or so Clinton aides hope. “The show now moves to a larger stage,” said Clinton’s pollster Stan Greenberg. Good performances on that stage will help Clinton’s overall favorable rating, he predicted.

But Clinton aides concede that they have no simple solution to the campaign’s largest single problem--the high percentage of voters who say Clinton lacks the “honesty and integrity” to be President.

“He has to do it day by day. It seeped away day by day, and that’s how you have to get it back,” Stephanopoulos said. “It’s just a steady process of establishing trust.”

Clinton strategists also hope to use the remaining primaries as a chance to begin campaigning against Bush in key states such as California and New Jersey.

“In every state we’ve been in, people like Bill Clinton more when we leave than when we got there,” said Clinton media consultant Mandy Grunwald. The future primaries can provide an opportunity to begin lowering Clinton’s negative ratings, Clinton strategists hope.

Times staff writer David Lauter contributed to this story.

The Delegate Tally

The delegate count according to the Associated Press, all contests to date.

DEMOCRATS / 2,145 needed to win nomination Delegates Bill Clinton: 1,262 Paul E. Tsongas: 539 Jerry Brown: 266 Uncommitted: 476

REPUBLICANS / 1,105 needed to win nomination Delegates George Bush: 963 Patrick J. Buchanan: 54 Uncommitted: 8