NEWS ANALYSIS : Peru’s Staggering Load of Woes Just Got Heavier : Takeover: The coup has alienated friendly governments, imperiled aid, hardened opposition and given guerrillas a moral boost.

On top of its previous burden of staggering problems, Peru now has one more to contend with: an unconstitutional government.

President Alberto Fujimori created it when he shut down Congress and the courts a week ago today. The military-backed coup against the constitution has alienated friendly governments, jeopardized foreign aid, hardened political opposition and given revolutionary guerrillas a moral boost.

Some analysts say the coup could lead to a full-fledged military takeover, bigger waves of bloody rebellion and brutal repression, or a prolonged period of dictatorship.

All those dire consequences are not inevitable, of course. Fujimori has promised reforms to help defeat the guerrillas, fight corruption, develop the economy and make democracy work. And most Peruvians seem to believe in him, at least for now.

But Peru is a desperate country, sometimes eager to believe in miracles. Unfortunately, with or without a constitutional government, it is hard to imagine anything short of a miracle that would suddenly solve the country’s overwhelming problems of violence, poverty and institutional weakness.

In return for a freer hand to deal with those problems, Fujimori has sacrificed much of the legitimacy he earned when voters chose him as president in 1990. That legitimacy was one of his key weapons against the Shining Path, or Sendero Luminoso, a Maoist guerrilla group that has besieged the country in a campaign of terror, sabotage and subversion.

Shining Path can now more convincingly portray the government as illegitimate to justify its revolutionary violence.

“I imagine that Shining Path must be drinking champagne,” said Pablo Rojas, a human rights activist. “There is nothing Shining Path wants more than a dictatorship, to legitimize their own struggle.”

Analysts fear that members of legal leftist parties, deprived of a democratic framework, could also turn to clandestine subversion. At the least, opposition parties will use all of their strength to challenge Fujimori’s right to govern.

Dialogue will be more difficult. Polarization will sharpen. “Political polarization benefits the Shining Path,” Rojas observed.

He and others worry that to control armed and political resistance, the government will turn increasingly to harsh repression, violating human rights. Peru’s army and police already have dismal human-rights records.

A full-fledged “dirty war,” such as the one that wiped out guerrillas in nearby Argentina in the late 1970s, would multiply suffering and death in Peru. Political violence already has taken an estimated 25,000 lives since 1980.

More turmoil would further undermine the Peruvian economy, sunk in a severe recession since before Fujimori took office. Few investors will risk new capital here.

Foreign aid is important for keeping government finances from collapsing. But some countries, including the United States and Germany, have suspended much of their aid because of Fujimori’s coup.

The democratic governments of Latin America are shying away from Fujimori, partly out of fear that acceptance of the coup could encourage similar action in other countries of the region. In neighboring Bolivia, President Jaime Paz Zamora warned the Congress last week to cooperate with him “so that there won’t be a need to eliminate it.”

Fujimori kept top congressional leaders under house arrest until Saturday as his government issued tough decrees against terrorism and drug trafficking and took other measures advocated by the military. It is still unclear how much decision-making power Fujimori shares with the military commanders who support him, how strong that support is, or how long it might last.

A Peruvian army major earns only about $250 a month, and low salaries have contributed to unrest among lower- and middle-level officers. If Fujimori does not improve salaries, military analysts say, pressure from below might erode his support from the generals.

“Military support is not as solid as we might think,” a retired colonel said. That raises the possibility of an eventual coup against Fujimori, a possibility that will become stronger if his popular support declines.

A key question now is whether the regime can turn the economy around before public disillusionment sets in.

For most Peruvians, the main issue is economic survival; more than half the population lives in poverty, holding no regular jobs. Yet economic problems have proven as frustrating for many Latin American dictatorships of the past as they have for democracies.

Fujimori has capitalized on public resentment against corrupt and inefficient legislators and judges. But in Latin American experience, corruption and inefficiency have often grown worse under authoritarian governments.

Augusto Blacker, Fujimori’s foreign minister, has said that the new regime hopes to hold new congressional elections within 18 months. It would not be easy, however, for Fujimori to face a new Congress if his ambitious goals of institutional reform, economic revival and pacification have not been accomplished by then.

Some Peruvian observers predict a much longer period of authoritarian government. They point out that the dictatorship of Gen. Augusto Pinochet in neighboring Chile lasted 17 years and that Peru’s problems are much deeper than Chile’s were.

A major incentive for the United States to support the regime is Peru’s status as the world’s main supplier of raw cocaine. If U.S.-Peruvian relations break down, so will joint efforts to control cocaine trafficking.

If the United States and other foreign countries support the new regime, however, they will lose leverage for pressing Fujimori and the military to reverse the coup and return to democracy.

Special correspondent Adriana von Hagen contributed to this report.