Survey Shows Perot Beating All in Texas : Politics: The poll points up vulnerabilities of Bush, Clinton--and billionaire’s potential drawing power.

A new poll shows maverick tycoon H. Ross Perot beating both President Bush and prospective Democratic nominee Bill Clinton in Bush’s home state of Texas, serving as the most dramatic evidence yet of the vulnerabilities of Bush and Clinton and of the potential magnitude of Perot’s impact on the November election.

Texas, the nation’s third-largest state with 32 electoral votes, is considered vital for Bush’s reelection. And Democrats claimed to be cheered by the lower level of support for the incumbent in a state that he has labored to make his own.

But Republicans pointed out that, according to one part of the poll, released late Monday, native Texan Perot pulls more support from Clinton than from Bush, a factor that could prove fatal to Clinton’s hopes of unseating Bush. Other analysts pointed out that November is far away, and a lot can happen in the interim.

Perot, a billionaire, has promised to run as an independent if volunteers get him on the ballot in all 50 states--and to pay for it with $100 million of his own money.

The survey, called the Texas Poll, was conducted for Harte-Hanks Communications, a group of Texas newspapers. If the presidential election were held now, the poll found, Perot would win a three-way race with 35% of the vote, to 30% for Bush and 20% for Clinton. In a two-way contest, Bush would get 48% of the vote to 32% for Clinton. However, in that two-way matchup, 27% of Bush’s backers and 32% of Clinton’s said they would rather vote for Perot.

The findings were based on interviews conducted from April 9 to 18 with 674 registered voters considered very likely to vote in November. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Informed of the results, Perot told an interviewer on CBS “This Morning” that his strong showing increased his sense of responsibility to the electorate. “If the people across the country want me to do this, I’ll have my work cut out for me because they are asking me to deliver, not talk about it,” he said.

Perot also told CBS that he has resigned from two private clubs that exclude minorities.

The Texas finding comes on the heels of strong showings in national surveys. A Times Poll late last month, for example, showed Perot getting 21% of the vote to 37% for Bush and 35% for Clinton--despite the fact that two-thirds of the registered voters surveyed said they did not know enough about Perot to have an opinion. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released last week gave Perot 26% of the national vote, compared to 30% for Clinton and 38% for Bush.

Some analysts point out that independents have usually lost strength as the general election approaches, once voters learn more about them and face up to the likelihood that they cannot win.

“There is still enough water that has to go under the bridge before the general election that these figures have to be considered very tentative,” said Bruce Buchanan, University of Texas political scientist.

White House Press Secretary Marlin Fitzwater said Perot has been having a honeymoon with the media. “He better get ready for criticism,” Fitzwater said, predicting that Bush would “do very well in Texas . . . we expect to win.”

A few blocks from the White House, at Bush campaign headquarters, staffers pondered how to deal with the Perot problem. “What do you do?” asked one operative who worried that the usual tactic of attacking a rival’s positions might not be effective in Perot’s case. “He’s not a politician; he’s a protest candidate. People largely don’t care what he thinks anyway.”

And even before the GOP was confronted with the Texas Poll figures, Republican National Chairman Richard N. Bond said he had asked his legal staff to report to him on the ballot-access rules of all 50 states, a step that could set the stage for ballot challenges.

Texas, in fact, is one of the toughest states for an independent. Those who sign Perot petitions must be registered voters who did not vote in the March primary. The 54,275 signatures must be submitted by May 11--the earliest filing deadline in the nation.

As for the Democrats, Garry Mauro, who directed Clinton’s victory in the Texas primary, said the poll was basically better news for Clinton than it was for Bush. “The Perot voters are voting for change,” he said, predicting that once Perot’s candidacy fades, these voters will be more likely to back Clinton than the incumbent.

But some Democrats questioned whether Perot would fade, like John B. Anderson in 1980 and George C. Wallace in 1968. They said the Texas billionaire’s vast financial resources would help him get his message across. “His bankroll gives him credibility,” said George Shipley, a Texas political consultant who managed the campaign of Democratic Gov. Ann Richards.

Times staff writers David Lauter and Douglas Jehl contributed to this story.