THE TIMES POLL : Bush, Perot in Near Tie With California Voters

If the general election were held today, Ross Perot and President Bush would run neck and neck in California with Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton trailing narrowly, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

Attracting support from across the ideological spectrum, Perot, the Texas billionaire considering an independent bid for the White House, was favored by 32% of the respondents compared to 33% for Bush and 26% for Clinton, the survey found.

Perot’s showing underscores widespread dissatisfaction with both Bush and Clinton in this battleground state: A majority of Californians disapproves of the President’s job performance, and a plurality say the Democratic front-runner lacks the honesty and integrity to serve as President.

Looking toward the state’s June 2 presidential primaries, the poll found former Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr. holding a 51%-37% lead over Clinton among registered Democrats. In a three-way race including Paul E. Tsongas, who has suspended his candidacy but remains on the ballot, Brown leads with 41% to 28% for Clinton and 21% for Tsongas.

On the Republican side, the poll found President Bush with a commanding 72%-18% advantage over challenger Patrick J. Buchanan, who has accumulated high negatives in the state, even among GOP partisans.

The Times Poll, supervised by John Brennan, surveyed 1,395 registered California voters from April 23 through April 26, including 619 registered Democrats and 526 registered Republicans; it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for all registered voters. For the individual samples of registered Democrats and Republicans, the margin of error is 5 percentage points.

Both parties’ nominations are likely to be effectively decided before the California primaries. But with its 54 electoral votes--one-fifth of the total needed for an Electoral College majority--California looms as the pivotal contest in the general election. And on that front the poll crackles with warning signals for the likely major party combatants.

Combined with a survey released last week that showed Perot leading both Clinton and Bush in Texas, the Times Poll suggests that Perot is gathering steam as discontent grows with the likely nominees in both parties. Over 4 in 10 likely Perot voters in California hold an unfavorable opinion of both Clinton and Bush, the poll found.

What makes Perot’s showing even more dramatic is that only about half of Californians know enough about him to express an opinion, with 41% viewing him favorably and just 10% negatively. Among those voters with an opinion about him, Perot draws a stunning 53% of the vote--to Bush’s 23% and Clinton’s 18%.

Perot attracts about one-third of both Democrats and Republicans and a plurality of independents--capturing 39% of those voters, to Bush’s 28% and Clinton’s 18%.

One caution sign for Perot: At this point in 1980, a Times Poll found independent candidate John B. Anderson drawing 26% of the California vote in a three-way race with President Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan; but Anderson faded to just 8.6% here on Election Day.

With his diverse pattern of support, Perot draws 24% of those who say they would back Clinton in a two-way race, and 25% who say they would support Bush.

In a two-way race with Clinton in the state, Bush leads, 49% to 38%. Brown runs somewhat more strongly, trailing the President, 48% to 43%.

By contrast, at this point four years ago, a Times California poll showed Democratic front-runner Michael S. Dukakis with a 53%-36% lead over Bush--who rallied to narrowly carry the state in November.

Bush’s lead in the two-way race now may say more about Clinton’s weakness than Bush’s strength. Except for his lead over Clinton, the poll offers Bush little but headaches:

--Just 19% of California voters say the nation is moving in the right direction--while 73% maintain it is off on the wrong track.

--Just 43% of Californians approve of Bush’s job performance, while 54% give him negative marks. More ominously, just 12% strongly approve of Bush’s performance, while fully one-third of Californians strongly disapprove. And Bush’s job ratings continue to slip--last December, Californians gave him a 50%-48% positive grade.

But, if anything, doubts about Clinton are even more widespread in California. One dramatic sign of weakness: Nearly one-fourth of those Californians who disapprove of Bush’s job performance still pick him over Clinton in a two-way race.

Overall, just 39% of California voters view Clinton favorably, while 52% view him unfavorably--an extraordinarily high number. Just one in six California voters had a negative view of Dukakis at this point in 1988.

Only 35% of those surveyed said Clinton “has the honesty and integrity” to serve as President, while 48% said he did not. By contrast, voters endorsed Bush’s honesty by a margin of 62% to 33%, Brown’s by 55% to 36% and Perot’s by 43% to 13%.

As in other states, it is Clinton’s fellow baby boomers who are most skeptical of him. Among voters 25 to 44, 32% said Clinton has sufficient honesty to be President, while a resounding 55% said he does not.

Baby-boomer doubts about Clinton also dominate the Democratic primary race. Clinton held a comfortable lead over Brown among senior citizens, runs evenly with him among voters 45-64 and only narrowly trails him among those 18-24. But voters from 25 to 44 prefer Brown over Clinton by a margin of more than 2 to 1.

In addition, the poll shows that Brown, who forged strong ties with blacks and Latinos during his two terms as governor, holds substantial leads in both groups--which have favored Clinton so far.

For Brown--who was crushed in a Senate race against Republican Pete Wilson when he last sought elected office in 1982--the survey indicates that his iconoclastic presidential bid has substantially refurbished his image in his home state. Last December, just 29% of California voters viewed Brown favorably, while 40% had an unfavorable opinion of him.

Now, though, 50% of all California voters view Brown favorably, with 41% holding a negative view of him. Among Democrats, the ratio is 67% favorable to just 27% unfavorable--up from December when local Democrats gave him a 45%-24% positive score. “Brown has been rejuvenated as far as California Democrats are concerned,” said Brennan.

Despite Brown’s strong showing, the poll offers clear indications that the Democratic primary race could remain volatile. One-third of Democratic voters--slightly more for Clinton and slightly less for Brown--say they could change their vote before June 2.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,395 California registered voters--619 registered Democrats and 526 registered Republicans--by telephone April 23-26. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that listed and non-listed numbers had an opportunity to be contacted. Interviewing was conducted in either English or Spanish. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, household size and county size. The margin of sampling error for percentages based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for the samples of registered Democrats and Republicans the error margin is plus or minus 5 points. For certain other subgroups, the error margin is somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

A Tight 3-Way Race in California

Ross Perot and President Bush would run extremely close if the presidential race were held today, a Times Poll shoes. Meanwhile, former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr. holds a comfortable lead over Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton among Democrats.

If the November general election were being held today, and the candidates were Bill Clinton, George Bush and Ross Perot, for whom would you vote?

Bush: 33%

Perot: 32%

Clinton: 26%

Don’t know: 8%

Someone else: 1%

Which candidate can do the best job bringing the changes America needs?

Perot: 27%

Bush: 23%

Brown: 20%

Clinton: 15%

Don’t know: 10%

Someone else: 5%

If the June 2 Democratic primary were held today and the candidates were Jerry Brown and Bill Clinton, for whom would you vote? (asked of registered Democrats only)

Brown: 51%

Clinton: 37%

Don’t know: 8%

Someone else: 4%

If the Republican primary were held today and the candidates were George Bush and Pat Buchanan, for whom would you vote? (asked of registered Republicans only)

Bush: 72%

Buchanan: 18%

Don’t know: 5%

Someone else: 5%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll, taken April 23-26. Poll conducted among 1,395 registered voters across California, including 619 registered Democrats and 526 registered Republicans. Margin of error plus or minus 3 percentage points for the top two questions; plus or minus 5 percentage points for the bottom two.