Brown Promises Not to Quit Campaign : Politics: The Californian reassures his supporters on the eve of Pennsylvania’s primary. He says the effort must continue past November.

PHILADELPHIA — Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr., seeking to dispel speculation that he might bow out after today’s Pennsylvania primary and to revitalize his presidential campaign, declared Monday that he intends to remain in the race. And, he said: “At the end, we will win this campaign.”

In what aides had billed as a major address, Brown returned to Independence Hall, the historic landmark where he kicked off his “insurgent” presidential bid last October, to tell a cheering crowd of several hundred people: “We are going to surprise the cynics, for we intend to win this election.”

At the same time, however, apparently bowing to his continued meager standing in the polls, the former California governor exhorted his supporters not to be “deterred or disillusioned by temporary setbacks”--presumably including the possibility of a poor showing in the balloting today.

“Whatever my own fortunes, I’ve seen enough popular discontent to know that our movement, our cause, will continue. We will not yield, we will not despair, we will not lessen our commitment until success is attained,” he said.

Brown’s aides said the speech was meant to bolster his prospects in the primary and keep supporters who might vote for others if they thought Brown was about to drop out.

Brown increasingly had been asked whether he would continue his campaign if he did not do well here. Recent polls have suggested he is likely to garner only 18% to 28% of the Democratic vote.

Despite his assertions, many analysts believe the Californian’s campaign already has begun to fizzle and that, barring a real breakthrough in Pennsylvania, he will be forced to scale back soon, or simply will not be taken seriously.

William Schneider, political analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, said that if Brown should do poorly in today’s primary, “it would be just like what happened to (Republican challenger Patrick J.) Buchanan,” who reduced his campaigning after his initial popularity began to wane.

“He (Brown) would be viewed as being on a downward slide, and eventually would be forced out of the race,” Schneider said.

Charles Cook, an independent Washington-based Democratic political consultant, said that whatever happens in Pennsylvania, Brown already has become the Democratic Party’s Buchanan, and the only question now is how long he wants to continue going through the motions.

Except for Monday’s speech, Brown’s campaign in Pennsylvania has often seemed little more than a holding action.

Although he does well among college students and union members, he has drawn lackluster crowds in most places. Front-runner Bill Clinton has been conspicuously ignoring him, and Brown no longer is getting much media attention.

As a measure of the importance Brown’s strategists attached to his address Monday, the campaign brought in Richard N. Goodwin, a longtime friend who wrote speeches for Presidents Lyndon B. Johnson and John F. Kennedy. Goodwin polished Brown’s speech until minutes before delivery time.

Brown also pledged that no matter what happened in the campaign, he would continue his “insurgency” movement after the November election. He contends politics has been corrupted by large contributions and vows to take back the process. He accepts no donation larger than $100.

Brown has renewed and intensified his attacks on Clinton, who he insists would drag the Democratic Party down to defeat. Anyone considering voting for Clinton “might just as well pull the lever for (President) Bush,” he told a radio audience the other day.

Brown’s agenda in Pennsylvania is simple: to win enough delegates to keep his campaign viable until the California primary June 2, when he hopes to win enough delegates to keep Clinton from a first-ballot nomination and to influence the party platform. (A recent Times Poll found Brown leads Clinton among California Democrats, 51% to 37%.)

“What we are looking for,” said Jacques Barzaghi, Brown’s aide, “is to work for an open convention and then create the movement there to show force.”

So far, the primaries and caucuses have given Clinton commitments from 1,332 of the 2,145 delegates he needs to win the nomination. Former candidate Paul E. Tsongas has 529; Brown has 271, and 169 others are at stake in Pennsylvania.

Schneider and other political analysts said Brown must do better here than in New York, where he got 25% of the vote, and he must outdraw Tsongas. “To come in second to Tsongas here would really be humiliating,” Schneider said.

As was the case at Brown’s rally here in October, Monday’s gathering featured recorded Bob Dylan music and an assortment of supporters carrying placards emblazoned with the Brown campaign slogan, “Take Back America.”

“I urge you with all the force at my command to ask not what a candidate promises you; ask to whom he owes his election. For that, and that alone, is how he will use the power he seeks,” Brown said.

He added: “Who is buying? Ask yourself that, and then go out and vote tomorrow.”