Predicting Human Behavior Via Math
When UC Irvine advertised four years ago for a mathematical political scientist, Sung-Chull Lee was one of few in the country who could claim such an esoteric title.
Lee, 36, uses numbers and mathematical equations, instead of words, to predict and discuss human behavior. At UC Irvine, he belongs to an elite team of researchers under the direction of Duncan Luce, a renown professor in the cognitive sciences.
“If you can express a phenomenon in English, you can also describe the same phenomenon through mathematics,” Lee said. “And mathematics is more precise than any other language. It is much more compact, and you can’t state inconsistencies.”
Lee’s research is intended to help business or political leaders make decisions.
“Mathematical models can create valuable decision-making tools,” Lee said. “The policy-maker might evaluate situations better if he can reasonably expect what will happen. If he likes a particular outcome, he can find out what kind of equation to use.”
For example, last summer at an academic conference in South Korea, Lee developed a mathematical model to predict possible future relationships between that country and North Korea.
Lee’s successes in academia might not have been predicted when he was a boy in South Korea.
Although he passed difficult qualifying exams to attend an elite boys’ school, Lee was hardly a stellar student. Rather than study, he preferred to hang out with friends from the U.S. Army base.
“I loved rock ‘n’ roll, the American top 40s, French movies and, especially, square-dancing,” he said. His favorite outfit was a Western shirt, hat and boots.
“In fact, I was thinking about becoming a professional square-dance caller,” Lee said. “I tried to start square-dancing clubs in Korea, but it was not very successful. We even performed on television and demonstrated in public, but it never attracted people.”
When he came as a 25-year-old graduate student to the University of Kansas in Lawrence, he fulfilled his wish and directed square-dancers at local clubs. He had mixed emotions about the country he had only heard about and imagined.
“It’s a big country,” he said. “I had never seen such a horizon, such green grass and such things as sprinklers.”
For the first time, Lee dug into his academic work, propelled by the need to earn good grades to maintain his scholarship. Also, the collegiate environment was more demanding than in South Korea.
The fellowship he received required that he return to South Korea, but the university allowed him to teach in the States. Lee was eager to stay because of the fertile research environment in his specialty.
But he is uncertain whether he will remain in America. As his son, Joseph, 6, and daughter, Anna, 3, grow older, the dilemma becomes thornier.
“As time passes, I feel more comfortable (here). As time passes, it’s more difficult to return,” Lee said. “I have less contact with Korea, and the society there is changing. I have this nostalgia, but it is a fixed picture of the past.”
