CALIFORNIA ELECTIONS / SENATE : Davis Banks On ‘Hail Mary’ Upset

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Gray Davis has begun buying large amounts of television advertising time in a “Hail Mary” strategy designed to upset front-runner Dianne Feinstein by throwing a massive amount of television and mail at her in the last 10 days of the campaign, sources in Davis’ campaign say.

The problem for Davis, other observers said Tuesday, is that the controller, who has been surprisingly quiet most of the campaign, may be starting too late to overtake Feinstein.

Recent voter surveys by the Los Angeles Times Poll and the California Poll show Feinstein running 28 and 29 points ahead of Davis, respectively. There is widespread agreement among political experts that Davis will have to pull off a huge upset to win.

Feinstein disclosed Tuesday that she will attempt to match Davis’ last-minute television buy, which could total $1.5 million. However, her ads, unveiled Tuesday, don’t mention Davis and appear to be looking ahead to a likely November general election campaign against Republican incumbent Sen. John Seymour, who has been leading Rep. William E. Dannemeyer (R-Fullerton) in opinion polls.

Feinstein, with her new ads, takes a different approach from the dramatic look of the television spot in 1990 that helped propel her past then-Atty. Gen. John K. Van de Kamp in the Democratic primary for governor. That ad showed her announcing the murder of former San Francisco Mayor George Moscone, using clips from news footage, and her appointment as his successor. The new ads are much quieter, showing the former mayor in a variety of face-to-face encounters with various people, from hard hat construction workers to schoolchildren.

Bill Carrick and Hank Morris, the same team that produced her well-known “forged from tragedy” spot in 1990, produced the new ads. Feinstein narrates the new ads herself, as opposed to using a male announcer. Her media advisers believe this fits her campaign to break into the largely male U.S. Senate and hope they will distinguish her ads from the “clutter” of other spots being broadcast between now and Election Day, since most, if not all, the others use a male narrator or announcer.

Davis, meanwhile, has kept his television ads, which will begin running Thursday, a secret. He plans to unveil them today.

The controller, by waiting until such a late date to begin his media advertising, touched off widespread speculation that he was backing away from a full-fledged campaign in the face of Feinstein’s strong lead in public opinion surveys. The speculation was fueled not only by his refusal to reserve television time, as is traditionally done by candidates, but also a limited public campaign schedule.

The controller’s campaign is being managed by a public relations firm run by Michael Berman and Carl D’Agostino, called BAD Campaigns, and it has been generally following a script being played out by another BAD candidate, Rep. Mel Levine, who is running in the Democratic primary for a second California seat in the U.S. Senate at stake this year.

The strategy calls for the candidate to cut out many of the traditional types of campaigning, such as touring the state on a daily basis, giving speeches to various groups and shaking lots of hands, in favor of staying close to a telephone in order to raise massive amounts of money, all of which is carefully husbanded for pitches on television or by mail.

Part of the strategy includes mailing out last-minute slate cards composed of candidate endorsements made by various groups.

Berman and D’Agostino did not return calls Tuesday, but Davis and his aides hotly denied the speculation that the controller has given up hope of defeating Feinstein.

They say Davis deliberately kept people guessing as part of a strategy, admittedly a risky one, that one top campaign source likened to throwing a long pass late in a football game, commonly known as a “Hail Mary” pass, in an effort to pull victory from defeat.

One highly placed source said, “She is so much better known that this is the only chance we have to beat her.”

Davis, angry at the rumors, told The Times: “Believe me, we have a full-fledged campaign and by June 2 there will be nobody disputing that.”

In addition to buying television ads, Davis said he will have 8 million pieces of mail delivered to voters by the time the primary election rolls around. He noted that in 1986 polls showed him trailing the then-front-runner, current Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi, two weeks before the election but that he still managed to beat Garamendi by a 12% margin.

Much of the talk about Davis giving up was coming from the camp of Republican incumbent Seymour. Seymour campaign spokesman Jeff Weir claims Davis agreed “not to rough (Feinstein) up,” as part of “an unholy alliance.”

Weir argues that Davis will emerge from the primary with a substantial amount of Democratic Party goodwill that he will be able to cash in on between now and 1994, when he will run for reelection, governor or some other office.

Aides to Feinstein denied the claim, noting that they may have to spend as much as $2 million to match Davis’ ads and protect the lead she is showing in public opinion surveys.