STATE ASSEMBLY / VENTURA ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO : Republicans Battle in GOP Strongholds : Politics: The party has a good shot in November at retaining control over the conservative districts after the bruising primary races.

The political seers predict this is the year disgusted Californians will dismiss many of their officeholders and put a batch of fresh faces in power. Political wanna-bes have taken this message to heart, turning out in record numbers to vie for a spot in the state Assembly.

In a normal year, the newcomers would face a mighty challenge. But along with the public’s anti-insider fever, the electoral dynamics have been scrambled in 1992: Redistricting has weakened some Assembly incumbents’ advantage and the ominous threat of term limits has chased others into new occupations or campaigns for higher office.

Born of Proposition 140, term limits were billed as a way to open the Statehouse to ordinary, nonpolitical folk--the dry cleaner, the gym teacher, the town mortician, etc. There are some of these types in the running, but dominating the herd of hopefuls are scores of politicians who sense that this may be their moment to debut on the statewide stage.

In Assembly races between Ventura and San Diego, more than 28 mayors and city council members--along with at least two dozen school and college board members--are campaigning in hopes of scampering up the political slope to Sacramento.

Here is a snapshot of the tightest primary contests in Ventura, Orange and San Diego counties:

37th District

Ventura County: Thousand Oaks, Camarillo, Oxnard,

Port Hueneme, Moorpark

41% Democrat, 47% Republican

A French emigre with a ballooning campaign bank account has made the GOP primary race in this southern Ventura County district a surprisingly spirited one.

When Republican Assemblyman Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks decided to run for Congress, the pundits figured the campaign to succeed him would be a duel between two local GOP politicians--former county Supervisor Madge L. Schaefer and longtime Oxnard Mayor Nao Takasugi, who hopes to become the first Asian-American elected to the Assembly in 14 years.

But among the five other Republican candidates, international trade consultant Alan Guggenheim of Newbury Park has emerged as a heartily financed contender, raising $88,000--four times as much as Schaefer--as of the latest reporting deadline.

Guggenheim, a native of France, moved to Ventura County in 1989 and became a naturalized citizen last year. Critics call him an arriviste unfamiliar with local problems, but he has won the backing of anti-abortion groups and several conservative assemblymen and he is campaigning on a timely pledge to bring a businessman’s savvy to Sacramento.

Takasugi, the top fund-raiser with $94,000, is haunted by charges that in wooing new businesses to Oxnard, he struck deals that were excessively favorable to industry. The mayor’s efforts, critics charge, hurt Oxnard’s tax base while overburdening city services.

Schaefer must fight perceptions that she is abrasive and explain her close ties to billionaire developer David Murdock of Westlake Village, a relationship that many believe caused her to lose her seat on the county Board of Supervisors in 1990.

The lone Democrat on the primary ballot is Roz McGrath, a local teacher and farm manager.

67th District

Orange County: Los Alamitos,

Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa

35% Democrat, 54% Republican

In a political oddity caused by reapportionment, three GOP Assembly incumbents are battling for this seat.

When boundaries were realigned and the homes of the three landed in the same district, the experts figured at least one of the lawmakers would move to new turf. Assemblywoman Doris Allen of Cypress was the prime choice, because much of her current district was put into the 68th District, where there is no incumbent.

But Allen shocked the pundits by declining to move and launching a campaign against Assembly colleagues Tom Mays of Huntington Beach and Nolan Frizzelle of Fountain Valley.

Because all three are straight-as-an-arrow conservatives who differ little philosophically, the campaign has been decidedly ho-hum. Indeed, the candidates have struggled to find issues on which they disagree. They are all adamantly opposed to abortion rights.

The district, tucked into Orange County’s northwest corner, is reliable Republican territory, 77% Anglo and affluent. Only one Democrat is taking a stab at the seat--Ken LeBlanc, a former auto parts salesman from Huntington Beach.

68th District

Orange County: Garden Grove,

Buena Park, most of Anaheim

42% Democrat, 48% Republican

It happened almost four years ago. But the controversy that erupted when the GOP stationed uniformed guards at polling places in Latino neighborhoods in 1988’s general election continues to haunt politics in Orange County--particularly the Republican primary contest for this seat, left without an incumbent after redistricting.

Democrats charged the presence of guards discouraged some Latinos from voting and thus helped Republican Curt Pringle of Garden Grove win the ’88 contest. It prompted a lawsuit against the county Republican Party that was settled for more than $400,000 and was viewed as a key factor leading to Pringle’s defeat in 1990.

Pringle is making a bid for political rehabilitation this year, and a coalition of state lawmakers is backing him. But some of the district’s conservatives, concerned that the scandal’s enduring stain makes him vulnerable to a Democrat in November, are backing Westminster City Councilwoman Joy L. Neugebauer in the GOP primary.

With the party’s right wing thus divided, Buena Park Mayor Rhonda J. McCune is betting she can win by staking out the political center. As part of her strategy, she reminds voters she is the only Republican candidate who supports abortion rights.

The Democratic primary features two contenders--John Kanel, a retired Cypress city councilman, and Linda Kay Rigney, a teacher’s aide from Garden Grove.

70th District

Orange County: Newport Beach,

Irvine, Laguna Beach

28% Democrat, 60% Republican

Dominated by rich coastal enclaves, this district may be the safest GOP territory in the state. It also has been a perfect match for Assemblyman Gil Ferguson, a proud member of a fraternity of conservative lawmakers called the “cavemen.”

During his eight years in Sacramento, Ferguson has jousted with gay-rights activists, tried to boot liberal Assemblyman Tom Hayden (D-Santa Monica) from office and fought the distribution of condoms on school grounds. He is also a staunch abortion foe, a stance that has diluted the appeal of his message among some female constituents.

Costa Mesa Mayor Mary Hornbuckle hopes such disenchantment will help her topple the incumbent in the GOP primary this year. The third woman in three straight primaries to challenge Ferguson, Hornbuckle accuses the assemblyman of tilting at ideological windmills instead of addressing the needs of his constituents. But she has yet to attract the heavyweight campaign dollars that would seem necessary to unseat a powerful incumbent

Democrat Jim Toledano, an Irvine attorney, is unopposed in his party’s primary.

73rd District

Orange, San Diego counties:

San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano,

Mission Viejo, Camp Pendleton,

Oceanside, Carlsbad

30% Democrat, 57% Republican

It is a free-for-all among eight GOP candidates in this new coastal district, which straddles the Orange-San Diego county line. None of the contenders has ever sought statewide office, but four serve as mayors or city council members.

With no incumbent to pick on, the candidates have tried to stake out their positions on the major issues--growth, the state’s budget crisis and welfare reform. It quickly became apparent that they do not disagree on much.

Oceanside attorney Bill Morrow has tried to become the candidate of the far right by courting gun advocates and Christian groups, but most of his competitors are scrambling to win conservative support as well.

The race’s few fireworks so far were set off by Dana Point Mayor Mike Eggers, who penned a campaign mailer suggesting that the Los Angeles riots ended in part because people were too busy lining up for their welfare checks. Foes accused him of practicing demagoguery that would damage the GOP.

The wild card may be geography. The three candidates from San Diego County are not known north of the San Onofre checkpoint, and the five from Orange County could have similar trouble getting attention in the south.

The other GOP contenders with a shot at the nomination--and almost certain victory in November--are Laguna Niguel Councilwoman Patricia C. Bates; Carlos Negrete, a San Juan Capistrano attorney; Carlsbad Mayor Claude (Bud) Lewis and Oceanside Councilman Sam Williamson.

75th District

San Diego County: Santee, Poway,

Ramona, Borrego Springs,

portions of San Diego

31% Democrat, 54% Republican

Her candidate brochures bill her as “Connie Youngkin: Pro-Family Tax Fighter for Assembly.” But Youngkin’s hopes in the fight for this open seat hinge on her years of anti-abortion activism, which have made her that movement’s most famous--and infamous--symbol in San Diego.

Two years ago, Youngkin nearly upset incumbent Assemblywoman Tricia Hunter, who has moved to another district to run this year. Now she faces Poway Mayor Jan Goldsmith and two long shots in a Republican primary that likely will turn on Youngkin’s ability to broaden her candidacy’s appeal beyond its right-wing origins.

Twice jailed for blockading women’s health clinics, Youngkin barely mentions the abortion issue, preferring to campaign on her support for tax cuts, the death penalty, parental choice in schools and welfare reform. When pressed, the nurse characterizes her activism as civil disobedience in the tradition of the Boston Tea Party.

Goldsmith dismisses Youngkin as a single-issue candidate and urges voters not to be deceived by her attempt at a political make-over. His “broader, unifying agenda,” Goldsmith says, includes opposition to new taxes, support for a high-speed rail system to alleviate freeway congestion and the sale of Central Valley water to San Diego.

High school teacher Dante Cosentino is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

77th District

San Diego County: Lemon Grove,

La Mesa, El Cajon, portions of

San Diego and Chula Vista

39% Democrat, 47% Republican

GOP Assemblywoman Carol Bentley lives in this southeastern San Diego County district, but she opened the door for new blood by running for the state Senate.

In the Republican primary race for the open seat, longtime conservative activist Steve Baldwin faces former Chula Vista Mayor Greg Cox. One consultant calls the contest a “battle for the heart and soul” of the Republican Party.

On the surface, the race pits Cox’s lengthy resume of public service against Baldwin’s army of Christian activists, who hope to step up the political ladder from the dozens of school and community board seats they captured in 1990 in “stealth campaigns” orchestrated by Baldwin.

But the contest has another layer of political drama: A struggle between the party’s moderate wing and ultraconservative ideologues who hope to shift the GOP’s agenda to the right on issues ranging from abortion to the environment.

Cox, 43, and Baldwin, 35, disagree on a wide range of topics.

Baldwin, a property manager in a family real-estate business, opposes abortion and gun control and favors a voucher system allowing parents to use public funds to enroll their children in private schools. Cox, who got his political start on the Chula Vista City Council in the 1970s, holds the opposite position on those issues.