Both Parties Favored Perot, Exit Poll Shows : Presidency: The Texan would have won Democratic and GOP races in California by double-digit margins.

Texas industrialist Ross Perot, who is organizing an independent campaign for the White House, would have won both the Republican and Democratic presidential primaries in California by double-digit margins if he had been on the ballot, according to a Los Angeles Times exit poll.

Perot’s strong showing in the survey dramatically underscored signs of danger for both President Bush and Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton in a state whose 54 electoral votes mark it as the richest prize in the November general election.

In Tuesday’s balloting, Perot’s actual write-in vote was relatively light: Just over one-in-eight Republicans and about one-in-12 Democrats said they wrote in his name, according to the poll. One reason for that modest showing may have been state election officials’ announcement that they would not count Perot’s write-in ballots cast Tuesday.

But in hypothetical ballot tests on the exit poll, Perot demonstrated convincing strength in both parties.

Fully 43% of Democrats say they would have voted for Perot if he had been on the primary ballot, compared to 29% who said they would still have voted for Clinton, 23% for former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr. and 3% for former Massachusetts Sen. Paul E. Tsongas, who suspended his campaign in March.

Among Republicans, Perot showed even more appeal. He led President Bush, 52% to 38%, among GOP primary voters, with conservative columnist Patrick J. Buchanan lagging at 9%.

Slightly more than half of those who backed Bush over Buchanan said they supported the incumbent only because “he is the best of a bad lot.” Likewise, exactly half of Clinton’s voters offered the same unenthusiastic explanation for their support for him over Brown, according to the survey.

The Times Poll, supervised by polling director John Brennan, surveyed 2,899 Republicans and 4,253 Democrats as they left polling places Tuesday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Perot also ran well when voters were asked their inclinations in a three-way general election among the businessman, Bush and Clinton. Democratic primary voters split evenly, with 40% preferring Perot, 40% Clinton and 6% Bush. Among Republican primary voters, 43% said they would vote for Perot in November, 38% backed Bush and 6% supported Clinton.

In the Democratic primary, three-in-10 of those who voted for Clinton and four-in-10 of those who backed Brown said they would support Perot in a general election, as did nearly half of those who supported Tsongas. About one-third of those who backed Bush in the GOP primary said they would support Perot in November, as did more than half of those who backed Buchanan.

These findings reinforced recent statewide surveys that show Perot leading Bush and Clinton in California. But in some respects they are even more dramatic, because the exit poll showed Perot registering dramatic inroads even among the hard-core partisans who participate in the state primaries.

Exit polls by Voter Research and Surveys in other states voting Tuesday also showed Perot attracting considerable support. In Ohio, 46% of Democratic voters said they would have preferred Perot--enough to give him a nine-point victory over Clinton if he appeared on the ballot, CBS reported.

In New Jersey, Perot showed less strength, attracting one-fourth of Democrats and about one-third of Republicans in exit polls, according to CNN. One cautionary note emerged in the Times Poll of California voters: of those writing in Perot’s name in both primaries--a relatively small subset of the group that indicated support for him in the poll--more than 40% said they had voted for the Texas businessman primarily as a protest. “The Perot vote seemed more anti-Bush and Clinton than pro-Perot,” said Brennan. “That raises the question of how this might hold up in the months to come.”

Still, in the Times exit poll Perot demonstrated a centripetal appeal, drawing most powerfully from closest to the center of the political spectrum, attracting the least support from liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans. But he lapped Clinton among moderate and conservative Democrats; likewise, he led Bush among moderate and liberal Republicans.

In both parties, Perot’s vote in a hypothetical three-way general election varied relatively little by age or occupation: in both primaries, he ran about as well among white-collar and blue-collar voters.

But among Democratic primary voters, Perot ran more strongly with whites than blacks or Latinos. One-fourth of blacks and just over one-third of Latinos said they would back Perot in November.

On the Republican side, this final contest between Bush and Buchanan followed the groove cut in their first encounter, nearly four months ago in New Hampshire. Despite Buchanan’s sharp ideological attacks on the President, as in other states, the results in California found no evidence that his sharply defined ideological agenda won him much favor with the voters.

Throughout his California campaign, the conservative columnist railed against illegal immigration in terms that some critics branded racist. He carried over half of those who cited immigration as a key factor in their vote, but that group represented less than one-in-14 primary voters. One-fourth of those voting cited taxes as a key factor--and despite Buchanan’s criticism of Bush for reneging on his no-new-taxes pledge, the President carried a majority of those voters.

As throughout the primary season, Buchanan depended primarily on votes from those feeling economic strain. Bush won among those who said they were better off than four years ago (about 30% of the primary electorate) and among those whose economic situations haven’t changed (just over 40% of the voters). But the President won just four-in-10 of the remaining voters (about 30%), who said their economic position had deteriorated in the last four years.

In the Democratic race, the best news for Clinton was indications of diminishing concern about his honesty, at least among these Democratic partisans. Of those voting in the Democratic primary, 40% said they believed Clinton had sufficient integrity to serve as President, while 29% said they did not; 31% were unsure. Even so, that represents an improvement from New York, when Democratic primary voters split evenly on the question.

Asked who they would prefer as the party’s vice presidential nominee, Democrats scattered among eight choices. Jesse Jackson led the pack, drawing support from 17% of those polled, including half of blacks and about one-in-eight whites. Tsongas followed at 14% and Texas Gov. Ann Richards at 10%. Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen drew 7%, Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey 5% and West Virginia Sen. John D. (Jay) Rockefeller IV just 3%.

Two long-shot names finished in the middle of the pack: 8% liked the idea of a fusion ticket with Republican businessman Peter V. Ueberroth, and 7% were intrigued by Army Gen. Colin L. Powell, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

As for another controversial figure in the news, the parties retreated to opposite corners on America’s most famous unwed mother: television character Murphy Brown. Nearly three-fourths of Democrats said Vice President Dan Quayle was wrong when he maintained the program sent “the wrong message” by showing the title character giving birth out of wedlock; but 53% of Republicans stood by their man in his condemnation of that woman.

THE TIMES POLL: Perot Pulls in Voter Support

Votes for Ross Perot did not count in the California primary, but he is clearly popular with the state’s electorate, a Times exit poll found.

If Ross Perot were on the presidential primary ballot today, would you have voted for him?

Yes No REPUBLICAN 53% 47% DEMOCRAT 45% 55%

If Bush runs against Clinton and Perot in November, how are you likely to vote?

REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT Perot 43% 40% Bush 38% 6% Clinton 6% 40% Not sure 12% 12% Wouldn’t vote 1% 2%

If Bush runs against Clinton in November, how are you likely to vote?

REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT Bush 64% 11% Clinton 12% 64% Not sure 14% 14% Wouldn’t vote 10% 11%

RIOT-RELATED ISSUES

The exit poll found voters split over programs to prevent more violence in L.A., and over Vice President Dan Quayle’s theory on TV’s handling of out-of-wedlock births.

Which of these things do you think is the most important action that can be taken to prevent violence such as the Los Angeles riots?

GOP Dems Moral leadership from within 42% 33% the inner cities Stronger law enforcement 26% 16% More civil rights for minorities 6% 18% More private investment 11% 11% More government spending 3% 10% Something else 11% 11% Nothing can be done 1% 1%

Vice President Dan Quayle said TV character Murphy Brown’s portrayal of an unwed mother sends the wrong message about American family values. Do you agree or disagree with Quayle?

GOP Dems Agree 53% 19% Disagree 37% 73% Not sure 10% 8%

Source: Los Angeles Times exit poll taken June 2, 1992. It is based on interviews with 4,253 Democratic primary voters and 2,899 Republican primary voters at 120 polling places in California. The margin of error for the total samples is plus or minus 3 percentage points. The margin of error for subgroups may be somewhat higher.