POLITICAL BRIEFING

NEW MATH: Whether Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton proves good presidential material remains in doubt, but even his enemies credit him as a shrewd political handicapper. Recently, Clinton offered this early line on a three-way fall election featuring him, President Bush and Ross Perot: “If Perot gets 15%, I win,” he said. “If he gets 20%, I probably still win. If he gets 25% or more, Bush wins, or maybe Perot does.” . . . Why? “The hard-core Perot supporters,” Clinton speculated, are mostly Republicans “who would never consider voting for a Democrat.” But the support that has swelled Perot’s standing in recent public opinion polls comes from “people who are sick of where the country is going” and who want to oust the Bush Administration. Clinton is hoping that ultimately, qualms about Perot will cause these latter voters to turn to him. . . . But for now, he said, “there’s no doubt that Perot is hurting me more” than Bush, in part because the Texas tycoon is attracting the media attention Clinton believes he needs to present himself as an effective agent of change.