THE TIMES POLL : Spotlight Finds Clinton Locked in a 3-Way Tie

Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton steps into the spotlight at this week’s Democratic National Convention locked in a three-way dead heat with President Bush and undeclared independent candidate Ross Perot, a new Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

The poll shows Clinton backed by 29% of those surveyed, Bush by 28% and Perot by 27%--statistically insignificant margins.

And while the three contenders still display contrasting strengths and weaknesses, public sentiment about them on a range of key measures appears to be converging, setting the stage for a volatile and closely fought fall campaign.

In the survey, none of the trio has established a clear advantage on such basic questions as who can best bring about change and whose values best reflect the voters’ own; likewise, the depth of commitment to each of the men looks similarly shallow, with between 40% and half of their supporters saying they could end up voting for someone else in November.

Even on the broadest measure of the public’s assessment of them, the differences among the three are modest: Voters hold narrowly favorable impressions of Clinton and Perot, and a narrowly unfavorable view of Bush.

The Times Poll surveyed 1,681 adults, including 1,290 registered voters, from Tuesday through Thursday, the day Clinton selected Sen. Albert Gore Jr. of Tennessee as his running mate. Supervised by John Brennan, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Overall, the poll suggests that the candidates are moving toward their fall showdown in fragile positions.

The survey indicates that Clinton is making progress toward defusing concerns about his honesty, but still faces substantial lingering doubts--with one-third of those holding an unfavorable impression of him citing dishonesty as their principal reason.

Apprehensions about Perot’s honesty, experience and plans for governing are growing, with his unfavorable rating more than tripling since March. When asked which of the three men has offered the most specific plans for solving the nation’s problems, just one in 14 selected Perot.

At the same time, discontent with Bush’s performance remains profound, particularly on pocketbook issues; almost three-fourths of voters disapprove of his handling of the economy.

Overall, one-third of voters say they would never support Bush, while one-quarter each hold equally dim views of Clinton and Perot.

All three men are shouting their promises into a gale of discontent: Three-fourths of Americans believe the country is off on the wrong track, while just 17% believe it is on the right track--the most pessimistic answers to that question in the Times Poll at any time during Bush’s presidency. Fully 86% of those polled believe the nation is still in recession and only one-fifth expect the economy to improve in the next three months, about the same number as expect it to deteriorate. Half expect no change at all.

Through the spring, surveys have found that the emergence of Perot--whose maverick appeal defies easy ideological categorization--has muddled many of the traditional divisions in the presidential contest.

In some respects, that lack of definition remains the defining characteristic of the race.

In the survey, support for the three men shows only modest regional variation. Clinton leads in the East and Midwest--but within the poll’s margin of error over Perot in both regions. In the West, Bush leads, with Perot closely trailing and Clinton narrowly behind the Texas billionaire. In the South--the region Clinton hoped to shore up with his selection of Gore--Bush and the Arkansas governor are virtually tied, with Perot narrowly behind. Southern whites--the most precise target of the Gore selection--split almost evenly between the three contenders, with 34% backing Bush, 30% Clinton and 28% Perot.

Similarly, in a race that pits the first all-baby boom ticket (Clinton and Gore) against the 68-year-old Bush--likely to be the last presidential candidate who served in World War II--and the 62-year-old Perot, voter preferences vary little by age. Among baby boomers, the three are in a statistical photo finish.

But the new Times Poll finds that in other respects, support for the three contenders is beginning to segment along some familiar lines.

For example, Perot leads the three-way race among men with 35%, to 28% for Bush and 27% for Clinton. But among women, Clinton leads 32% to 28% for Bush and just 20% for Perot. That advantage could foretell good news for Clinton: Undecided voters, who now constitute about 15% of the total electorate, are predominantly women.

Similarly, among self-declared independents, Perot leads with 36%, to 23% for Bush and 21% for Clinton. Among Democrats, the Arkansas governor has asserted a 58% to 20% lead over Perot, with Bush at 8%. Among Republicans, 59% back Bush, 24% Perot and 7% Clinton.

Clinton leads among blacks, although he still falls well short of the resounding margin provided previous Democratic nominees: African-Americans now split 45% for Clinton, 11% for Perot and just 6% for Bush. Fully one-third remain undecided, a dramatic increase since March. Whites divide almost evenly among the three candidates--30% for Bush to 28% for both Clinton and Perot.

Voters with annual incomes of $20,000 or less prefer Clinton over either Bush and Perot by 2-to-1 margins. Among voters earning between $20,000 and $40,000, the three men are virtually tied. Among those earning more than $40,000 annually, Bush is backed by 32%, Perot 30% and Clinton 25%.

That finding somewhat masks two of the key developments in the poll--signs that among better-educated and upper-income voters, Perot’s image is deteriorating and Clinton’s gradually improving.

Overall, 38% of those polled held a favorable impression of Perot and 29% an unfavorable view; in The Times’ last national survey in March, Perot was less well-known but viewed favorably by a three-to-one margin of 25% to 8%.

Since then, Perot’s expected candidacy has sparked a nationwide outpouring of enthusiasm. But within the last few weeks, his prospects have been clouded by media reports that he has repeatedly investigated business and political rivals, which in turn sparked GOP allegations that he would endanger civil liberties. Those charges appear to be taking a toll among the upper-income, better-educated voters who are typically most attuned to privacy concerns.

Since March, Perot’s unfavorable rating has increased 27 percentage points among voters with annual incomes above $40,000--double the rise in negative sentiment among low income voters. Likewise, Perot’s unfavorable rating rose twice as much among voters with at least some college education as among high-school dropouts.

By contrast, there are hints that Clinton may be refurbishing his image among voters at the top of income and education ladder--the group that had been most skeptical of him throughout the Democratic primaries.

On one hand, his overall favorable rating among better-educated voters--and the electorate at large--is still equivocal. Among all voters, 41% now view Clinton favorably and 36% unfavorably.

But the percentage of voters saying he has sufficient integrity to serve as President has increased to 47% from 42% in March; the percentage maintaining he lacks sufficient honesty has dropped from 38% in March to 28% this month.

Clinton’s gains on that front have come entirely from voters with at least a high-school education. His advances are most pronounced among those with more than a high-school education: 47% of those voters now see him as honest, compared to 32% who do not. In March, just 37% of these better-educated voters believed he had sufficient honesty to serve as President, while 45% disagreed.

Still, questions about Clinton’s character remain a formidable hurdle for the presumptive Democratic nominee, the poll reveals. When voters unfavorable toward him were asked, in an open-ended question, why they dislike Clinton, one-third cited dishonesty, one-fifth said he was slick and one-seventh raised allegations of marital infidelity.

Among voters favorably inclined toward Clinton, one-fifth said they liked him because he “cares about people like me,” an equal number said he “thinks like me on the issues.”

Doubts about Perot’s honesty are also emerging, the survey shows. Perot did not score much better than Clinton when voters were asked if he had the integrity to serve as President: Respondents endorsed Perot’s honesty by 43% to 22%. By contrast, 63% said Bush had the integrity they expected in a President, while 28% said he did not.

When voters unfavorable to Perot were asked, in an open-ended question, why they dislike him, 27% cited a lack of specific plans, 19% the absence of previous political experience, 17% questions about his honesty and 16% said he was too rich.

Asked why they liked Perot, voters cited personal characteristics of strength and independence: One-fourth cited an ability to get things done, 18% the sense that he is a strong leader, and 15% independence from special interests. Bush’s overall profile is now marginally less favorable than either of his rivals: 45% view him favorably, and 53% unfavorably, a slight deterioration of his position in March.

Those who like Bush cited his record in foreign affairs (22%), experience (18%) and strong leadership (14%). Those who dislike him said they didn’t trust him (26%), questioned his leadership (25%), and disapproved of his handling of the economy (22%).

That discontent with Bush’s economic record--the centerpiece of the case being built against him by both Clinton and Perot--rings through other questions in the survey. Just 21% of those surveyed approve of Bush’s handling of the economy; 72% disapprove. Americans grade Bush’s overall job performance negatively, as well, by 54% to 41%.

Bush also finished last when voters were asked who could do the best job promoting economic prosperity: Perot led at 37%, followed by Clinton at 24% and Bush at 20%. By an overwhelming margin, voters believed Bush would do the best job of handling foreign affairs; by a less substantial margin they thought Clinton could most effectively tackle the entrenched problems of the inner cities. And one-third of those surveyed gave Clinton the highest marks for presenting a “detailed set of programs for solving this country’s problems,” far more than the number ranking Bush or Perot first on this score.

On a series of other key questions, no candidate emerged as a clear favorite. Asked who was most capable of bringing about the changes Americans need, about one-fourth selected both Clinton and Perot, and one-fifth Bush; asked who best represented their own values, voters split narrowly, with 31% picking Bush, 28% Clinton, and 24% Perot.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,681 adult Americans nationwide, including 1,290 registered voters, by telephone from July 7-9. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the country. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and non-listed numbers had an opportunity to be contacted. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and household size. The margin of sampling error for the total sample and the sample of registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin is somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

THE TIMES POLL: Candidates Neck and Neck as Convention Begins

The race for President remains close, with President Bush, Bill Clinton and Ross Perot all getting just under 30%, a Times Poll of registered voters found.

THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE

If the general election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Clinton: 29%

Bush: 28%

Perot: 27%

Someone else: 1%

Don’t know: 15%

NEGATIVE REACTIONS

Are there any of the three who you will definitely not vote for, or are you ruling no one out?

Bush: 34%

Clinton: 25%

Perot: 25%

Ruling no one out: 25%

Don’t know: 5%

CONVENTION COVERAGE

How much of the convention do you plan to watch or listen to?

A great deal: 16%

Fair amount: 37%

Not much: 34%

None: 12%

Not sure: 1%

ON THE ISSUES . . .

Regardless of which candidate you prefer, who do you think:

Don’t Clinton Bush Perot know Cares more about 33% 20% 28% 11% problems of the average American Has the capability 26% 19% 27% 13% to bring about the changes America needs Would do the best job 13% 64% 8% 13% handling foreign affairs Would do the best job 21% 23% 26% 17% holding taxes down Can best deal with 34% 15% 19% 22% problems of America’s inner cities

Responses do not add up to 100% because some responses are not included.

The Times Poll interviewed 1,290 registered voters nationwide. Margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.