THE TIMES POLL : Clinton Takes Big Lead as Perot Backers Shift

With the successful conclusion of his party’s national convention, Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton has raced ahead of President Bush in voter support, opening one of the largest leads for any Democratic presidential nominee in the last 40 years, a new Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

In the survey, conducted last Thursday and Friday, Clinton leads Bush by 52% to 32%. Clinton’s lead is based in part on a strong shift of support for him among Ross Perot backers.

However, some of those who were for Perot--who announced last Thursday that he would not run for President--continued to express interest in the Texas industrialist. In the first flush of disappointment at his decision, nearly three out of five Perot supporters said they would still consider voting for him if his name appears on the ballot in their state.

On Friday night, Perot said he would leave his name on the ballot in the states where it has qualified if that is his supporters’ wish. And he urged his backers to continue efforts to get him on the ballot in other states.

In the past 10 presidential elections, only two Democratic nominees have enjoyed a wider advantage than Clinton’s current 20-percentage-point lead at any point in the campaign: Lyndon B. Johnson, whose 36-point lead in a midsummer poll culminated in a landslide win in 1964, and Jimmy Carter, who saw a 33-point post-convention margin virtually evaporate before squeezing out a two-point victory in 1976.

The Democrats’ 1988 nominee, Michael S. Dukakis, approached Clinton’s advantage when he amassed a 17-point lead over then-Vice President Bush at this point four years ago. But that lead quickly vanished in the face of a withering Republican attack, and Dukakis lost decisively.

Still, Clinton’s advantage at the outset of the general election is a formidable one. “I always say that polls like this are a souffle--they have a lot of air in them,” said James Carville, a senior strategist for Clinton. “But the thing you have to remember is that even when a souffle collapses, it still leaves something in the bowl.”

Bush advisers did their best to dismiss Clinton’s post-convention boost as ephemeral. But there was a mood of considerable frustration among them that the Times Poll and other surveys also showed Bush’s unfavorable ratings and voter pessimism about the course of the nation reaching extraordinarily high levels.

“We’ve got to get out there in the campaign mode before that dynamic changes,” a Bush strategist said.

The Times Poll, supervised by John Brennan, surveyed 1,067 registered voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Two principal factors propelled Clinton’s rapid ascent in the survey. One is the dramatic move in his direction by former Perot supporters, who made up 27% of those questioned in a Times Poll conducted just prior to the Democratic Convention. In the most recent poll, about three-fifths of former Perot supporters said they would now back Clinton if he and Bush are their only choices. Just two out of 10 of those voters said they would support Bush in that situation.

The second key factor is a powerful consolidation by Democrats behind their nominee. In a Times Poll taken on the eve of the convention, just under three out of five Democrats said they intended to support Clinton in a three-man race. But in a head-to-head contest with Bush, Clinton is now drawing the votes of more than eight out of 10 Democrats.

Overall, Clinton gained four percentage points and Bush lost 10 points from the Times Poll conducted just before the convention. In that survey, when voters were asked how they would cast their ballot in a two-man race without Perot, Clinton led the President, 48% to 42%. The three-way race was a virtual tie, with Clinton, Bush and Perot all clustered just below 30%.

The erosion of seemingly insurmountable leads for Carter and Dukakis underscores the tenuousness of large post-convention leads--particularly for Democrats. Indeed, Clinton’s 20-point advantage in the two-night Times Poll was less than his 23-to-29-point margins in surveys conducted solely on Thursday--the night he gave his acceptance speech at the convention.

Also, a substantial 13% of the electorate remains undecided in the Times survey.

But the new poll leaves little doubt that Bush faces a rugged electoral environment in which to make his case. In fact, the data suggests that with Perot no longer an active participant in the contest, the two-man race could evolve into a straightforward referendum on voters’ assessment of the nation’s basic direction. And that prospect is troublesome for Bush.

Just 19% of those polled said they believe that the nation is on the right track; 74% said the country is moving in the wrong direction. This ranks among the most pessimistic figures recorded for this question in a Times Poll during Bush’s presidency. It also approaches the levels of dissatisfaction during the last year of Carter’s presidency in 1980.

Of those who believe the nation is on the right track, 55% say they will vote for Bush, while just 33% say they will vote for Clinton. But among those dissatisfied with the nation’s course, the numbers reverse: Those voters break for Clinton, 59% to 25%.

Moreover, Bush must find a way to dig out from under extremely negative views of his performance. In the survey, just 43% said they have a favorable impression of Bush; 54% have an unfavorable impression.

Among those who had backed Perot, Bush’s image is even worse: They view him unfavorably by an overwhelming count of 69% to 28%.

The Democratic Convention accelerated a refurbishment of Clinton’s image that has occurred in recent weeks, the poll indicates. The survey shows that Americans now view Clinton--who earlier in the campaign labored under the weight of some of the highest negative ratings ever recorded for a presidential candidate--more favorably than Bush.

Of those polled, 57% now have a favorable view of Clinton; just 30% perceive him unfavorably. That represents a dramatic change for him; in the Times Poll conducted just before the convention, his favorable rating barely exceeded his unfavorable rating.

Perot voters were a key factor in this rise. Among those who planned to support Perot, 55% now hold a favorable impression of Clinton, while 36% do not. In the poll taken on the eve of the convention, just 28% of Perot supporters had a favorable view of Clinton, while 49% looked unfavorably on him.

Even doubts about Clinton’s honesty--the issue that many Republicans hope will ultimately prove to be his Achilles’ heel--have moderated from his low point during the primaries. In the survey, 56% of those polled say Clinton has the integrity they demand in a President; while just 24% say he is not honest enough for the nation’s top job.

Some of that may represent a temporary boost from the convention, but it also tracks with a long-term decline in voter concerns about Clinton’s honesty. In fact, his post-convention showing on this question was only slightly better than his ratings before the gathering.

Still, a significant 20% remain unsure whether Clinton is honest enough for the White House.

The poll found that Clinton’s running mate, Tennessee Sen. Al Gore, is not well known--nearly four out of 10 have no opinion of him--but he is viewed favorably by those who do, 46% to 13%.

In contrast, the poll found that Vice President Dan Quayle--whose recent attacks on a “cultural elite” have made him an increasingly controversial figure--is regarded negatively. By a 62%-to-31% margin, Americans hold an unfavorable view of him.

The survey shows Clinton, in the post-convention glow, both solidifying his support among groups that lean toward Democrats and establishing beachheads among voters who have been skeptical of him since his campaign was rocked by charges in late January of marital infidelity.

Clinton now wins seven out of 10 votes from blacks; one week ago, the Democratic nominee was winning only 45% support from the party’s most dependable voting bloc. And Clinton approaches a 2-to-1 advantage over Bush among women.

Overcoming his earlier problems with the better-educated, Clinton is running as well with college graduates as those with only high school degrees. In the income category, he does best with less-affluent and middle-class voters but still leads Bush even among those earning more than $40,000 a year.

Independents--who have been the backbone of Republican domination of national politics over the past generation--currently bend toward the Democrat, 45% to 34%. Even one out of five Republicans now express support for Clinton.

As for age, the first all baby-boomer ticket is doing somewhat better with older voters than younger voters. Voters under 25 are the least enthusiastic about Clinton, giving him only an eight-point margin; baby boomers themselves give their peers a relatively modest 14-point advantage over Bush. By comparison, voters from 45 to 64 years old give Clinton and Gore a 27-point advantage; those 65 and older--the boomers’ parents--prefer the young Democrats by 24 points.

The poll also found that Perot’s unexpected departure from the race clearly disappointed many of his supporters but did not entirely shake his hold over them.

Overall, those who said they intended to vote for Perot still view him positively by 62% to 26%. Even so, that represents a substantial decline from last week, when his voters expressed virtually no unfavorable feelings about the Texas industrialist.

While 36% of Perot’s backers agreed that his “sudden withdrawal from the presidential race shows he doesn’t have the temperament to be President,” 58% disagreed.

Among Perot supporters, 28% say they will “definitely” still vote for him in November if given the opportunity; another 29% said they might vote for him, while 37% said they definitely will not cast a ballot for him in the fall.

Perot’s movement fed on disillusionment with contemporary politics, and his departure from the race only intensified those feelings of disaffection among a portion of his supporters. Asked how the end of Perot’s candidacy influenced their assessment of the political system’s health, 38% of his supporters said it made them more disillusioned, 15% more enthusiastic and 42% said it would have no effect.

Times staff writers David Lauter and Douglas Jehl contributed to this story.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,067 registered voters nationwide by telephone from July 16-17. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the country. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and non-listed numbers had an opportunity to be contacted. Results were weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and household size. The margin of sampling error for the total sample and the sample of registered voters is plus or minus four percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin is somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

THE TIMES POLL: The Race Between Clinton and Bush

Following his party’s convention, Bill Clinton is enjoying one of the largest leads for any Democratic presidential nominee in the past 40 years.

If the general election for President were being held today and the candidates were Bill Clinton and George Bush, for whom would you vote?

7/17/91 7/9/92 Clinton 52% 48% Bush 32% 42% Perot 2% 2% Someone else 1% -- Don’t know 13% 8%

What are your impressions of the candidates?

Registered Voters Perot Supporters Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Unfavorable Bush 43% 54% 28% 69% Clinton 57% 30% 55% 36% Quayle 31% 62% 22% 73% Gore 46% 13% 52% 14%

Do you think Ross Perot was justified in dropping out of the race at this time, or should he have stayed in?

Registered Voters Perot Supporters Justified 46% 25% Stayed in race 37% 63% Don’t know 17% 12%

Do you think Perot was serious about running for President in the first place?

Registered Voters Perot Supporters Serious 55% 74% Not serious 33% 19% Don’t know 12% 7%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll of 1,326 adults taken nationwide July 16-17. Margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points for the entire survey. Subgroups may be somewhat higher.