U.N. Sounding Out New Measures Against Iraq : Inspections: Security Council, angered by Baghdad standoff, could force confrontation with a defiant Hussein.

The U.N. Security Council, angered by Iraq’s rebuff of a special U.N. envoy, began to consider new measures Monday to prod Baghdad into allowing arms inspections.

The move could bring a new confrontation with Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.

Members of the 15-nation council launched formal “consultations” to sound out key governments on how far the organization should go in enforcing this and other U.N. resolutions involving Iraq.

Diplomatic sources said the next likely step would be for the Security Council to set a specific deadline for Iraq’s compliance with U.N. demands. But they cautioned it may take a few more days to muster enough support for such a move.

Partly because of Hussein’s previous attempts to flout U.N. demands resulting from the Persian Gulf War cease-fire agreements, there is less reluctance among other governments than there was even a few months ago to tighten the pressure on Iraq to comply.

At the same time, however, U.S. government analysts monitoring the situation say that after repeated episodes of testing the United Nations’ commitment, the Iraqi leader may now be moving on a series of fronts to challenge the cease-fire arrangements.

In the latest episode, Rolf Ekeus, head of a special commission set up to rid Iraq of its weapons of mass destruction under terms of the Gulf War cease-fire, left Baghdad over the weekend after failing to persuade the Iraqis to allow U.N. inspectors full access to the country’s Agriculture Ministry.

The inspectors have been barred since July 5 from entering the building, where the United Nations believes Iraq has hidden military secrets. On Monday, demonstrators marched in Baghdad to support the government in the standoff.

In addition to the prolonged standoff in Baghdad and recent attacks on U.N. personnel in northern Kurdistan, U.S. sources report a major military buildup in the southern marshes that appears to be part of a new offensive against Shiite Muslim rebels.

Taken together, the confrontations have marked Hussein’s most defiant stance toward the West since the end of the war and the Kurdish and Shiite uprisings in the spring of 1991, the sources said.

“Saddam hasn’t been so baldly aggressive since his invasion of Kuwait,” one official said. “He seems to be taking on everyone--at home and in the outside world.”

The standoff between Iraqi officials and U.N. arms experts in Baghdad is particularly troubling for President Bush, whose popularity is at a low point in the 1992 presidential election campaign.

“I don’t think there’s any question that Saddam wouldn’t be nearly so brazen if he didn’t think Bush was in a corner,” the analyst added. “I suspect Saddam thinks he has quite a bit of maneuvering room right up through November.”

But the analyst said the Administration has little interest in the compromises put forward in a letter from Hussein to the United Nations last week. In it, he said that Baghdad had complied with most of the resolutions and that after more than a year, it was time to renegotiate.

“After our previous confrontations with this guy, our choices are pretty stark,” a U.S. policy analyst said. “Either we accept that he’s not always going to play by the U.N. rules or we do what it takes to have them enforced. It’s a black-and-white situation.

“I think there is a growing sense that we may have to do something to keep him honest--if not this time, then the next time,” the analyst said.

Hussein’s rebuff of Ekeus was only the latest in a series of such shows of defiance by the Iraqi leader.

In the north, Hussein clearly has been responsible for the wave of attacks against U.N. targets this month--including a car-bombing Monday that wounded two U.N. guards--despite the fact that the incidents have taken place in a region that is technically off limits to Iraqi forces, Administration officials said.

“He’s worried about the Kurds consolidating their position after the elections in May. To keep a hold in the north, he had also counted on the erosion of the coalition’s interest and commitment,” an Administration specialist said.

“But that hasn’t happened. Instead, the Kurds are getting organized, and the coalition hasn’t backed down. So now he’s doing his utmost to destabilize the U.N. and force them out.”

In the south, Hussein appears to be escalating the level of an ongoing conflict with the predominantly Shiite Muslim population, Administration sources said.

“He seems to be willing to do whatever it takes to keep it quiet,” the specialist said. “If that requires an offensive, so be it.”

Diplomatic sources said that much of what the Security Council decides is apt to be determined by Hussein’s own actions over the next few days. If the Iraqi leader backs away at the last minute, it would weaken support for setting a firm deadline for compliance.

The Administration is still hoping that Hussein will back down, as he has in previous impasses. But if Hussein holds his ground, as some now expect he will, it could push the Security Council into its most serious eye-to-eye confrontation since the Gulf War on how far to go in enforcing the council’s resolutions.