NEWS ANALYSIS : Bush Caught in Dilemma on Iraq Standoff

President Bush is caught in a thorny political dilemma as he ponders whether to respond militarily to Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein’s continuing defiance of Persian Gulf War cease-fire conditions.

Using force would risk creating a public perception that the President, who is suffering from his lowest-ever ratings in public opinion polls, was taking the action to boost his chances of being reelected in November.

But failure to respond forcefully to continued Iraqi violations could damage U.S. credibility abroad, further erode Bush’s standing as a leader and leave in power a tyrant who some White House officials say is manipulating the current crisis to exploit Bush’s vulnerability in an election year.

The President, said one senior foreign policy official, is “in a real bind . . . and it doesn’t make any difference whether he’s right or wrong in what he does. If he orders military action, his political enemies will accuse him of taking us to war to save his presidency. If he doesn’t, Saddam Hussein stays in power defying the U.N. conditions and thumbing his nose at us.”

Military intervention also carries an inherent risk of public backlash if the operation should go badly for the United States--for example, if aircraft losses are high or allied forces inadvertently bomb civilian targets.

Adding to the complications for Bush is the growing body of evidence, contained in secret intelligence reports and other government documents that have come to light in recent months, that Bush lavished massive U.S. aid on Hussein’s regime before the Persian Gulf War despite repeated warnings about Hussein’s thirst for conventional and even nuclear weapons.

In effect, these documents have shown, the Administration’s unsuccessful effort to woo Hussein with financial aid and militarily valuable technology helped create the vast war machine that triggered the Gulf War and still threatens the region.

Any resumption of conflict with Iraq could underscore in voters’ minds the shortcomings of Administration policy up to now.

On Wednesday, for example, Democratic vice presidential nominee Al Gore said Hussein should understand that “Republicans and Democrats see eye to eye” on forcing him to comply with the cease-fire agreements. But he also accused Bush of “playing footsie” with Hussein before the war.

For its part, the White House believes that Hussein is acting aggressively because he thinks the election campaign will be an obstacle to any U.S. military response, a senior Administration official said Wednesday.

“He thinks that he can get away with it because we’re involved in a campaign, and we have to disabuse him of that notion,” the official asserted. As a consequence, he said, the Administration intends to “ratchet up” its anti-Iraq rhetoric in coming days unless Hussein backs down--as he has done in previous showdowns.

But one thing is clear: Any decision to use force against Hussein now could have far different political consequences than it did the last time. Bush’s stern resistance to aggression in the Gulf War won the overwhelming support of most Americans, regardless of party, and sent his approval ratings to historically high levels.

Today, with millions of voters struggling through economic hard times and convinced that Bush has led the country down the wrong path, renewed conflict would inject an explosive new element into the presidential campaign.

It also could complicate the fall campaign for Democratic nominee Bill Clinton. Renewal of the conflict would make it more difficult for him to attack the President without seeming self-serving or even unpatriotic.

Still, Bush bears most of the political risk. If he does order a strike, he will face a difficult task of making the case that Iraq threatens America’s vital interests.

“Nobody thinks the United States faces an imminent threat from Iraq,” says former Democratic Chairman John White. “And unless you can show a threat to U.S. security, it will look political, and it will boomerang.”

Some U.S. policy analysts, who usually avoid domestic political considerations in their assessments, say both the campaign and the background of the war with Iraq make Bush’s political position almost untenable.

When Iraq was attacked and driven out of Kuwait last year, Bush said the United States had no quarrel with the Iraqi people--only with Hussein. But an estimated 100,000 Iraqis died in the war, and Hussein survived. After it became clear that Hussein would not be easily overthrown--and therefore could be an embarrassment for Bush--speculation has been widespread that Bush might order a military response.

The implicit goals of such action would be to bring down Hussein or at least force his compliance with the cease-fire agreement, and to recoup some of the glory and poll ratings of Operation Desert Storm, which Bush saw as his greatest foreign policy achievement.

Military actions usually create a rallying effect for a President, as they have done twice for Bush--after the Panama invasion of December, 1989, when his approval ratings shot up to 80%, and after the Gulf War in January and February, 1991, when the ratings soared into the 90s.

But with the public focus now on the nation’s domestic problems, the President’s approval ratings recently plummeted into the 30s. As the glory of the Gulf victory becomes a fading memory and Hussein remains in power, even some of Bush’s staunchest supporters believe that ordering a military strike would do little to boost his ratings.

“My instincts are that the Democrats would jump all over him and accuse him of taking us to war to save his presidency,” said a senior Administration official.

This official said the President has been showing the strain of having to deal with such problems as the Iraqi standoff while out campaigning and running far behind Clinton in the polls. “He just isn’t looking well physically, and he looks disengaged,” the official said.

Times staff writer Douglas Jehl contributed to this article.

GORE WARNS HUSSEIN: Nominee says Americans are united in support of U.N. A18