National Agenda : Rightist Gathers Support to ‘Spoil’ Croatian Vote : Dobroslav Paraga, who wants peacekeepers out, now ranks third, but he could tip balance against moderates.

A rocket launcher perched atop the cluttered desk of presidential hopeful Dobroslav Paraga speaks more succinctly than the candidate about how he would make good on his campaign promise to force U.N. peacekeepers to “go home.”

Paraga’s extreme right-wing Croatian Party of Rights is bullying its way up the popularity charts with the message that it could end the Balkan war sooner if foreign meddlers would leave.

Unapologetic in his advocacy of force to “liberate” territory that was at any time ruled by Croatia, the moon-faced radical insists his country historically extends to the Drina River border with Serbia--implying that Croatia should swallow the embattled, multiethnic and independent state of Bosnia-Herzegovina whole.

“We consider Bosnia-Herzegovina to be a country which will unite with Croatia, as it has for many centuries before,” explains Paraga, whose quiet demeanor belies the iron resolve with which he commands thousands of guerrillas fighting for a Greater Croatia.

“Croats should return to their homes and UNPROFOR (the U.N. mission) should leave,” Paraga said. “We don’t need another Cyprus situation here.”

Settling the Balkan crisis at Bosnia’s expense is also the aim of Serbian warlords like Vojislav Seselj and Zeljko (Arkan) Raznjatovic, whose guerrilla forces are the proxies through whom Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic has conquered territory he wants for a Greater Serbia.

A Paraga victory in Croatia would seemingly ensure a widening blood bath, which is one reason he and his party are running only a distant third in crowded races for president and a 124-seat Parliament.

But growing support for the extremist in these last days before an Aug. 2 election threatens to make Paraga the spoiler, tipping the balance in favor of rightists led by incumbent President Franjo Tudjman over the moderate and pacifist alternative offered by Social Liberal Party leader Drazen Budisa.

His candidacy also underlines what supporters of democracy here see as a disturbing acceptance by Zagreb authorities of openly aggressive and neo-fascist views.

Paraga and his black-shirted guerrilla force are granted equal status with more mainstream parties. They have the same access to government-controlled media and occupy prime state-owned office space.

Most troubling, in the view of democratic opponents and Western diplomats watching the election scene unfold, is the contagious influence Paraga’s policies have had on Tudjman as the incumbent scrambles to lure voters from Paraga’s domain on the far right.

The sole issue of the current campaign has been the savage war racking neighboring Bosnia and its potential to return to Croatia for an even bloodier second round. One-third of Croatia is under Serbian occupation after fighting that killed 10,000 last year.

Despite European Community recognition of Croatia’s prewar borders and the deployment of 14,000 U.N. peacekeeping troops to the war zones, the occupied territory remains inaccessible to Croats even as non-Serbs continue to be expelled. Withdrawal of the Serbian-dominated Yugoslav federal army--prescribed under the U.N. deployment plan--is not yet completed.

Tudjman has sought to play down the war losses in his campaign for reelection, portraying the U.N. mission as a temporary measure to allow Croatian authority to be restored in the region. But Paraga has exploited Croatian resentment over the U.N. role, which many see as a protection force for the occupying Serbs.

Although Paraga is given virtually no chance of winning, his popular call for U.N. withdrawal has prompted Tudjman to adopt a similar view that the “blue helmets” are not welcome for a long stay.

“It’s just a question of time until Croatian authority is re-established,” contended Stipe Mesic, chairman of Tudjman’s Croatian Democratic Union, known by its initials HDZ. “We will reconquer these areas either through UNPROFOR or by employing our own military option.”

Further distancing itself from the West, Tudjman’s party has accused the United States of trying to prop up the internationally ostracized regime in Belgrade by allowing California businessman Milan Panic to accept the job of Yugoslav prime minister. Mesic also asserted that Washington had secretly supported Paraga in hopes that he could divide the Croatian people and make their republic easier prey for Serbian aggression.

“Paraga acts in the interest of those circles in the United States that wanted to preserve the old Yugoslavia dominated by Serbia,” Mesic charged in an interview replete with charges of Western plotting.

Pressed to be more specific, Mesic declined, saying only that “Paraga works for Belgrade and is paid by someone in America . . . a U.S. government institution.”

Tudjman enjoys a slight lead in the polls, probably because many Croats credit him with winning international recognition of Croatian independence earlier this year.

But Tudjman, who was elected in the spring of 1990 in this republic’s first post-World War II multi-party election, has come under Western criticism lately for blatant human rights abuses in both Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Tudjman’s party has exclusive control of the media, police forces and state purse strings. Through the politically subjugated Justice Ministry, the leadership has brought criminal charges against opposition figures and journalists who have dared criticize or lampoon Tudjman. One of those indicted was a columnist who calls Tudjman “Miss Croatia” because of his fondness for donning an imperial sash.

The leadership also has extended citizenship and voting rights to untold masses of emigre Croats in what the opposition describes as a shameless bid to ensure reelection.

“He uses all of the state apparatus as party assets,” complained Bozo Kovacevic, the campaign manager for Budisa. “Passports for Croats abroad are supposed to cost 220 German marks (about $150), but HDZ members get them for only 20 marks.”

Mesic denied that any such favoritism is shown toward those loyal to his party. But other HDZ members concede there is broad latitude granted Croatian consular officials--most of whom are HDZ supporters--in setting the terms for foreigners who want to obtain citizenship.

Although polls show Tudjman with a slight lead over Budisa, their parties are running neck and neck. Paraga and the fourth leading candidate in the eight-way presidential race, former dissident Savka Dabcevic-Kucar, are in a close race for third with about 9% of the vote each, according to the Zagreb polling firm Glava.

With as much as 30% of the voting population still undecided, a runoff is likely, at least in the presidential race.

When confronted with the choices of Tudjman and Budisa, the two leading contenders, Paraga supporters could be expected to back Tudjman rather than the liberal, anti-war policies of Budisa.

Tudjman, a former Communist general and staunch nationalist, has vowed to recover “every inch” of Croatian territory lost to the Serbian minority that rebelled against secession from Yugoslavia last year. The 69-year old president is credited with having wrested Croatia from the ruins of Yugoslavia, but his determination to retake lost territory threatens to keep the country indefinitely engaged in battles.

Budisa, 44, a philosopher and respected anti-Communist activist, has been pressing for a swift and negotiated peace so that Croatia can begin the task of rebuilding an economy ruined by 40 years of Communist mismanagement and the past year of conflict. He has not publicly conceded that some border changes may be necessary, but insists that negotiation is the only means of working out a durable peace.

With the war dominating the campaign, the choice for president is seen here as a de facto referendum on whether Croats are eager to put the suffering and bloodshed behind them or whether the thirst for revenge is so strong as to provoke a new round of fighting.

“I’m really a pessimist when it comes to this war,” sighed Velda Brdar, who writes subtitles for foreign movies. “So many people are obsessed with the need to recover these territories that I think the fighting will just go on and on for the rest of our lives.”