O.C. GOP Leaders Fear First Loss Since F.D.R. : Politics: As Bush arrives to speak, poll shows Clinton leading in Republican stronghold, 43% to 22%.

California’s most staunchly Republican voters appear so frustrated that some local party leaders are actually concerned that a Democratic presidential candidate could carry Orange County for the first time since Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

As President Bush arrives today for a brief visit in Anaheim, the signs of unhappiness with the White House have become increasingly obvious.

It began last fall when one of Bush’s top contributors--Newport Beach developer Kathryn Thompson--broke ranks and hosted a breakfast for Democrat Bill Clinton. In June, Ross Perot flaunted his undeclared campaign’s appeal to GOP conservatives by drawing more than 5,000 people to an Irvine rally. And two weeks ago, when Bush’s image was flashed on the scoreboard at an Angels baseball game, it triggered loud booing.

Tuesday, the once unthinkable nightmare for Republicans was underscored when an independent poll by Santa Monica-based Fairbank, Maulin & Associates found Clinton leading Bush in Orange County, 43% to 22%. Bush, who is scheduled to speak this afternoon to the employees of an Anaheim robotics company, trailed Clinton statewide in the poll by 2 to 1.

“These (Democrats) are stealing the Republican thunder,” said conservative Assemblyman Gil Ferguson (R-Newport Beach). Ferguson said he was “shocked” over the weekend when he heard the dissatisfaction among grass-roots Republicans at a meeting he hosted.

“They were talking just like the polls, saying they were going to vote for Clinton,” he said. “I couldn’t believe it--these were Republicans.”

Like other county GOP leaders, Ferguson said the pressure is going to be on the party to energize its campaign at the Republican National Convention in Houston starting Aug. 17. “They’ve got to have a real barn-burner of a convention,” he said.

Greg Haskin, executive director of the county Republican Party, said: “It’s real hard to predict what we might see even a month from now because the launching of the campaign at the convention is really going to shape the public opinion we’ll see this fall. If they launch a stellar campaign, we’re ready to go out and beat every (registration) record we’ve ever had.”

Republican voter registration, however, has already shown signs of weakness in the state’s GOP mother lode. Since February, GOP registration has slipped 1.4% to about 54% while Democrats have shown a slight increase to almost 34%.

“Something is going on out there,” said Democrat George Urch, aide to Assemblyman Tom Umberg (D-Garden Grove). “I can’t remember in the 12 years that I’ve been here when the numbers have been so good. I think the Reagan Democrats are changing back; they’re sick of Bush.”

Since the Democratic National Convention in New York two weeks ago, the often-lonely Orange County Democratic Party has seen a nearly unprecedented outpouring of support. The party’s headquarters used to be an answering machine. Now, the phone has been so busy the party has had to add more lines.

At the recent Orange County Fair in Costa Mesa, Democratic officials say they registered more than 1,600 voters, about five times the number usually gained at the same annual event. Party headquarters also reports more than 2,000 calls from supporters, many volunteering their services for the Clinton campaign.

“We’re just overwhelmed by it,” said county Democratic Chairman Howard Adler. “Frankly, our biggest problem now is just processing all of the names through and getting back to them.”

Today’s snapshot of Orange County’s presidential preference reflects a nationwide trend toward the Democrats that followed their success in presenting a unified party at the New York convention. Most local Republican leaders say they are still optimistic that Bush can win in November and that they expect their party to enjoy a similar boost after the GOP gathers in Houston.

“Bush has said he wouldn’t crank it up until after the convention, and I don’t think they’ve pulled the trigger yet,” said Buck Johns, a prominent conservative activist and Newport Beach developer. Johns acknowledged that Orange County Republicans are unhappy and that many blame the White House. But he predicted a turnaround in public opinion by fall.

Ken Khachigian, a San Clemente Republican consultant running the campaign for California U.S. Senate candidate Bruce Herschensohn, also cautioned that summertime election polls can be misleading because respondents answer without any consequence, whereas they give more serious thought before casting their ballot.

“They’re not voting, they’re expressing concerns about the state of the economy,” he said. “When it comes down to Election Day and they know their vote has consequence, then they will judge between George Bush and Bill Clinton.”

“Clinton appears to be very attractive now,” he added. “But when exposed to the rigors of a long campaign and compared to a very competent and able President, then that support will melt away like an ice cube on the Santa Ana Freeway in August.”

IF BUSH LOSES CALIFORNIA... GOP plots new strategy. A19

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