Dealers Upbeat About Fall Lineup
The talk of the Video Software Dealers Assn. convention here this week was the industry’s rebound from last year’s slump and the prospects of a strong fall lineup that will boost this year’s revenues well ahead of 1991.
The annual gathering of the nation’s video retailers was more upbeat than last year, when the industry’s total revenues rallied late just to stay even with 1990, at an estimated $14 billion to $15 billion. The projections for 1992 revenue range as high as $16 billion.
The key to the year’s success is the fall offerings, which is expected to include some very appealing titles.
The only major release that has been announced so far is Disney’s “Beauty and the Beast,” which is due Oct. 30 at $25. In the sales market, this should be the blockbuster of the season, with a shipment, some speculate, in the 16 million to 20 million copy range. That would break the industry record held by another Disney video, “Fantasia.”
What really had retailers salivating is the lineup of other films they expect to hit the home video market in October and November: “Basic Instinct,” “Alien 3,” “Lethal Weapon 3” and “Sister Act.”
The summer’s big hit, “Batman Returns,” is also projected as a November release, possibly at a sales-market price of $20 to $25. It’s likely that Warner will treat the movie like past summer hits--”Batman” in 1989 and “Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves” last year. Both were early summer releases that hit home video by the end of the year.
Three other early summer hits--”Patriot Games,” “Housesitter” and “Unlawful Entry”--should be out in December to take advantage of the lucrative Christmas market.
Though video business is up in general, there were far fewer attendees at the convention than in past years. Usually the exhibition areas of the convention center are so crowded that it’s hard to walk. At this convention, there was plenty of room to maneuver.
“The recession has taken its toll,” said George Feltenstein, senior vice president and general manager of MGM/UA Home Video.
“Business is up for retailers but, for some, profits aren’t huge. They simply didn’t want to spend the money on this convention.”
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Video Sales: This was another major topic at the convention but, talking to some retailers, there wasn’t much cause for glee. The $5-billion video sales market was up an estimated 5% last year and increased more than twice as fast as rentals. But video retailers, who still rely mostly on rental revenues, aren’t getting a big share of it.
“The old-line retailers still see this as a rental business and many of them won’t go heavily into sell-through (sales),” Feltenstein said.
So non-rental outlets, like discount marts and grocery stores, will get a big chunk of the revenues of $25-and-under titles like “Beauty and the Beast.” These establishments, often using inexpensive videos as a tool to attract customers who buy other items, can afford to market a tape for $8 to $10 less than retail--which video retailers can’t do.
But many retailers here expect video prices to continue to drop, paving the way for major gains in the sales market in the next few years.
What’s New on Video:
“Juice” (Paramount, no set price). Watching young blacks grapple with the violent codes of the ‘hood should be gripping but, despite a remarkable performance by Tupac Shakar as a cold-blooded killer, rookie writer-director Ernest Dickerson’s movie is flat. The dialogue rings false and the story isn’t a grabber.
“This Is My Life” (FoxVideo, $95). In her directorial debut, writer Nora Ephron has fashioned a slight, barely amusing, TV-movie-like family comedy about how the sudden fame of a Queens single mother (Julie Kavner) as a stand-up comic spoils her relationship with her teen-age daughters.
“Rush” (MGM/UA, $95). Narcotic cops (Jason Patric and Jennifer Jason Leigh) who are also lovers become addicts in this drama, set in Texas during the 1970s. It features strong performances and a tension-packed Eric Clapton score, but it’s dragged down by a predictable, somewhat cliched script.
“The Search” (MGM/UA, $20). A moving semi-documentary/drama from 1948, set in Berlin, about homeless postwar children, focusing on an American soldier (Montgomery Clift, in one of the best performances) helping a child find his mother.
“Easy to Love” (MGM/UA, $20). The story about two suitors (Van Johnson and Tony Martin) chasing a swimmer (Esther Williams) is just filler. The real reason to rent this 1953 musical, set in sunny Florida, is to savor the spectacular aquatic ballets directed by Busby Berkeley.
