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Shares of Many Brokerage Companies Are Lagging : Investing: Just about all of the major securities-industry issues remain far below peaks reached early this year.

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From Associated Press

Before they get wildly excited over the stock market’s recent resurgence, many Wall Street analysts would like to see a better showing by the shares of publicly traded brokerage firms.

True, stocks of the likes of Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Charles Schwab took a jump last week along with the rest of the market as interest rates fell.

But just about all the major securities-industry issues remain far below the peaks they reached early this year.

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“The brokerage stocks peaked in January, some six months ago,” observed Joseph Barthel, an analyst at Fahnestock & Co. “During the past decade, whenever the brokerage stocks peaked, serious market declines followed within a six- to nine-month period.”

In 1987, to cite one instance, the group topped out in the early weeks of the year. The broad market averages went on to new highs, then crashed in October.

Since they hit their highs this time, some of the brokerage stocks have taken a beating.

For instance, shares of Schwab, the high-profile discount brokerage operator, tumbled from $37.75 to just over 20, before recovering to around 24 as of last week.

Even that 45% drop left a lot of profits intact for longer-term holders of the stock, which racked up a tenfold gain from the aftermath of the 1987 crash through last winter.

But performances like Schwab’s have been tough on investors who began the year looking for big things from the industry.

Some other examples: Merrill Lynch, as high as $66.625 early this year, trading recently in the low $50s; and Morgan Stanley, which is down from $67.875 to about $53.50.

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While the stocks have been retreating, most brokers have been posting strong earnings gains.

“The securities brokerage industry is experiencing its best operating environment in years,” the Value Line Investment Survey observed in its latest appraisal of the group.

“Nevertheless, many investors are voting against this industry,” wrote Value Line’s Jerome Fischer. “There is some concern that earnings of these companies have peaked during the past 12 months.”

One source of caution has been a cooling in the market for new stock issues.

“It is becoming increasingly apparent that second-half earnings for the securities brokers will not exceed year-earlier levels, and earnings comparisons will become much tougher in the first half of 1993,” says Lawrence Eckenfelder, who follows the group for Prudential Securities.

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