Bush, GOP Ratings Still Falling, New Poll Shows

PRINCETON, N.J. — President Bush’s standing with the American people, already at an all-time low, has fallen even more, and his eroding popularity could spell trouble for other Republican candidates, a Gallup Poll has found.

In a poll completed Sunday, only 29% of Americans approve of the way Bush is handling his job. And Democratic congressional candidates are preferred over GOP candidates by a 20-point margin, 56% to 36%. The Gallup survey taken in April, when Bush’s approval stood at 42%, had the race for Congress about even: 47% preferring the Democrat, 44% the Republican.

Bush’s approval rating carries an ominous history: Since Gallup first asked the public to rate the President’s job performance, only three have ever scored below 30%--Jimmy Carter, Richard M. Nixon and Harry S. Truman. None of these Presidents were able to recover politically.

Carter’s rating fell to 29% in June, 1979, prompting his much-maligned “malaise” speech one month later. He lost the election to Ronald Reagan by 10 percentage points.

Nixon’s approval rating first dipped below 30% in October, 1973, as the Watergate scandal took its toll on his presidency. Nixon’s rating never exceeded 31% in subsequent Gallup polls before his resignation in August, 1974. Truman’s ratings fell into the 20s during the Korean War in 1951; he decided not to seek reelection.

Despite his campaign’s recent offensive, Bush has been unable to cut into Bill Clinton’s big lead in the polls. Clinton’s current 25-point margin (57% to 32%) is comparable to his 22-point margin (56% to 34%) in a poll taken two weeks ago, immediately after the Democratic convention.

The potential for Clinton coattails is strongly evident in the poll results. If the election were held today, 56% of registered voters say they would support the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district, while 36% would support the Republican. This 20-point advantage in the Gallup Poll is the largest lead congressional Democrats have held at this point in the campaign since 1982, when a September poll showed the Democrats with an 18-point advantage (53% to 35%).